Breakout or Fluke? Analyzing Fantasy Football Standout Performances from Week 3: Jake Ferguson, Cam Skattebo and More

We just went over the fantasy football panic meter story for the week, and are now diving back into the breakout or fluke series.

We'll go over some surprising fantasy performances from week 3 and then determine if they were breakout showings or flukes. We'll look at two quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.

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Tight Ends

Hunter Henry and Jake Ferguson are the tight ends I want to discuss.

Henry delivered his best outing of the season, catching eight of his 11 targets for 90 yards and two scores. He had a fantasy dud in week 2, but was at 66 yards on four grabs and eight targets in week 1, so two out of three times this season, he's been a solid fantasy performer.

The Patriots' offense needs some playmakers to step up, and Henry has been that guy in two of the three games so far. Playing 86% of the team's snaps so far, I don't see any reason why Henry couldn't remain a starting fantasy tight end.

Now, I don't expect performances like he had in week 3 every week, but double-digit outings in PPR leagues seem like a decent bet most weeks. If you are lacking at tight end, Henry is a great pickup going into week 4, and someone who could start often the rest of the way.

Ferguson followed up a big week 2 showing with even more in week 3. He had 82 yards on 13 receptions and 14 targets this week.

Ferguson had 78 yards on nine grabs and 12 targets in week 2. He was held to 23 yards, but on five catches and six targets in week 1.

Most times, I'd say this isn't sustainable, but with CeeDee Lamb now nursing an injury, and potentially out a couple weeks, Ferguson definitely has a chance to remain a high-end fantasy tight end.

He's a good fantasy weekly starter, and that should remain true even when Lamb is back. With all that said, now might be a great time to sell high on Ferguson.

A TE-desperate team could pay big to land Ferguson, especially with Lamb now likely out a few weeks. I'd throw his name on the trade block and move him if you get a good/great return.

Wide Receivers

Tre Tucker and Luther Burden III are the wideouts we will discuss going into week 4.

Tucker erupted for 145 yards and three scores on eight receptions and nine targets in week 3.

In week 1, he had 54 yards on two catches and three targets. Tucker went for 12 yards, but on eight targets and three catches in week 2. He had a seven-yard rush in week 2 and a four-yard rush in week 3.

The Raiders are getting him more involved offensively, and he's shining despite Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers being around. Tucker has played 92% of the offensive snaps.

Tucker is a waiver wire add this week, but has some deep-league trade appeal. I'm torn on Tucker and am not sure if I'd be selling him high or trying to buy/add him before his value goes any higher.

He could be in the midst of a breakout season, and I'd probably be more inclined to keep rostering him and see how he proceeds from this big showing than trying to sell him to the highest bidder.

It all comes down to your fantasy team and setup, and your thoughts on Tucker down the road.

Burden came out of nowhere in week 3 for 101 yards and a score on three catches and targets.

He had a catch that lost three yards in week 1, then a five-yard catch across two targets in week 2.

He's played just 24% of the team's offensive snaps so far. Burden was at 29% in week 3, so we'll see if that number keeps trending up.

On an offense stacked with pass catchers, I see him as a better deep-league option, but he's not a big waiver target from what I've seen. In deeper setups, I'd definitely be OK stashing him on my bench to see how he builds on this breakout game.

There's a chance he continues excelling and then you have a great trade chip on your hands. That means standard league owners need to be watching him as well.

I don't see him continually excelling on this offense, unless someone gets hurt or moved, but he's at least worth keeping an eye on.

Running Backs

David Montgomery and Cam Skattebo are the two running backs we will discuss this week.

Montgomery broke a couple long runs in Monday's win over the Ravens, and it helped him to 151 rushing yards and two scores over 12 carries. He added a 13-yard catch.

He had 57 rushing yards and a score across 11 carries in week 2, but just 25 yards on 11 carries in week 1. Montgomery had four grabs for 18 yards across four targets in week 1, and a four-yard catch on his lone target in week 2.

Just like the Lions' offense as a whole, Montgomery's value has increased over the past two weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs is still leading the backfield, but Montgomery is thriving in his secondary role too.

This offense has supported both backs in the past, so I think Montgomery is here to stay as a weekly starting option. I'd still consider selling high on him, in case you get a workhorse back in return, but if no good offers come in, Montgomery should be a starting option most weeks the rest of the season.

Skattebo had his best showing in week 3 against the Chiefs. He rushed 10 times for 60 yards and a score, while adding 61 receiving yards on six receptions and eight targets.

He got 13 touches in week 2, going for 14 receiving yards on two grabs and three targets and rushing for 45 yards and a score on 11 carries. Skattebo lost three yards on two carries in week 1, and had two catches for 12 yards across two targets.

Skattebo has gotten more snaps and touches in each passing week so far, and he now looks like the lead back after Tyrone Tracy went down with an injury.

I not only think Skattebo is here to stay, but there's a chance he remains the lead back all season if he takes this opportunity and runs with it. I'm adding him in all fantasy leagues he's not rostered in, and trying my best to get him on my roster via trade in the leagues he's already owned in.

Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams and Geno Smith are the quarterbacks we will discuss after week 3.

Williams took advantage of a good matchup against the Cowboys in week 3. He threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns, while avoiding a pick. Williams had 12 rushing yards on five carries and wasn't sacked.

He was held at 207 and 210 passing yards in the first two games. He had three touchdowns and a pick in those games, along with 11 rushing attempts for 85 rushing yards and a score.

The matchups won't always be this favorable, but it was a good enough showing to earn some trust in more fantasy leagues. Williams will be an easier streaming choice in favorable matchups moving forward, and if he also delivers in tougher matchups, maybe he can repeatedly get some standard league starts.

Smith threw for 289 yards and three scores in a week 3 loss to the Commanders. He avoided a pick, rushed for five yards on two carries and was sacked five times.

Smith bounced back from a terrible week 2 showing, when he had 180 passing yards, no touchdowns and three picks - he was sacked three times and rushed for 20 yards on five scrambles in that one. He was also pretty good in week 1, throwing for 362 yards and a score, but also threw a pick, got sacked four times and only rushed for 10 yards on two carries.

Smith and this Raiders' offense likes to throw it (or more so has to throw it to keep up), so that is a positive for the quarterback's fantasy outlook. He's emerging as a pretty solid weekly fantasy option, even if his efficiency isn't the best.

Don't overlook Smith in standard leagues for some potential streaming starts. He's not a bad trade target in deeper leagues, and won't cost an arm and a leg to acquire.