Which Fantasy Football QB Performances are Real? Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, and More

Week 1 always brings surprises. We think we know what's going to happen. We spend countless hours over the offseason evaluating players, teams, and moves while creating the perfect picture of what everything means. By the time the season starts, we have done so much research and investigation that we could write a thesis on it.

Then the games start, and we see how little we actually do know. You didn't have to be Nostradamus to see that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were going to put up stats against each other on Sunday night; I think even Nostradamus would have been laughed out of the room if he said Daniel Jones was going to be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks of Week 1.

So, what's real? If a QB is bad all season but has a great performance in Week 12, we don't pay much attention because it is a small sample of what we know. After the first week, though, the only information we have is that big performance, and especially for a player on a new team, there's reason for hope that something clicked or that a new system is tailored perfectly to their skill set.

Let's look at four surprising quarterback performances in Week 1 and determine if they are a sign of things to come or just a blip on the radar. These will all be positive outcomes; we'll have plenty of time to talk about the bad later (hi, Tua Tagovailoa!).

Most stats are from NFL.com. The fantasy scores and rankings from Week 1 are from FantasyPros.

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Justin Fields, New York Jets

Fields was drafted outside the top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy. (In fact, all four guys on this list were taken 15th or lower at the position according to our FantasySP ADP rankings.) One of the main reasons I like waiting on quarterback in fantasy drafts is because there are SO many guys who score a feasible number of fantasy points on a weekly basis that you can find someone later or stream more easily than at any other position.

I was up on Fields because of his running ability and the fact that he is unlikely to lose his starting job if he stays healthy because no one else on the depth chart will realistically be New York's quarterback of the future; Fields has a chance at least.

For his fantasy upside, I kept looking back to 2022, when he ran for over 1,100 yards and scored eight touchdowns, making him fantasy QB6 for the year. A guy with obvious physical skills was getting his chance to be the unquestioned starter again, something that brought hope of a big performance.

So far, so good. Fields scored 29.5 fantasy points, tied for second among QBs before Monday night's game. He ran the ball 12 times for 48 yards and scored two touchdowns, living up to that portion of my expectations. He also went 16/22 passing for 218 yards and another score with no interceptions and just one sack taken. That 9.9 yards per attempt is a great number.

Top receiver Garrett Wilson caught seven of nine targets for 95 yards and that touchdown. It won't be a surprise to see that continue as the top connection. No other player caught more than two passes or gained more than 38 yards, so when teams key in and stop Wilson, it could cause issues, as the pass-catching talent is lacking elsewhere.

Is It Real?

The running is, but the passing will regress. That still makes Fields an intriguing fantasy player and a guy I would like to have. His career 7.0 yards per attempt is right at average, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see something like that stick, but there will be tougher tests ahead, like Week 2 against Buffalo. Keep Fields as a potential fantasy option every week.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Of all the other great performances, this one has to be the most surprising: 22/29, 272 yards (9.4 per attempt), one touchdown, no interceptions, one sack, seven rush attempts, 26 yards, and two touchdowns on the ground.

Jones has shown in the past that he can run a little bit. He will never be Fields, but Jones had over 700 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, his only good fantasy season (he was QB9 and only 21 points from QB5 despite sitting out two games). That was also his best passing season, though he only averaged 6.8 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Jones is tied with Fields for second among fantasy QBs this week before Monday, a wild stat. After being below average his whole career, getting benched then released last year to avoid injury guarantees, then signing a one-year deal to battle for a starting job, Jones is making fantasy owners think twice about his level of “cooked.”

Is It Real?

The big question here is how much was about Jones and the Colts and how much was the Dolphins. Miami has been ripped apart on defense by players leaving in free agency/trades and injuries to guys still on the team, particularly at defensive back.

The top corners on the depth chart were Jack Jones (a fourth-round pick in 2022 who has bounced around to three teams), Storm Duck (an undrafted second-year player who left the game injured), and Jason Marshall (a rookie sixth-round pick). Minkah Fitzpatrick is back, which helps at safety, but snaps are otherwise going to Ifeatu Melifonwu (a backup in Detroit even before they were good) and Ashtyn Davis (who tops out in the middle).

I see this as more of a referendum on the Dolphins than a reason to celebrate the Colts. Maybe Indianapolis can surprise people, but the most likely outcome is Jones regressing back to his career numbers. He can have a little fantasy success with good matchups, particularly running the ball, but Jones doesn't have the upside of a top fantasy performer the way that Fields does.

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Let's start here: Penix was good, but he wasn't great. The numbers look nice: 298 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, 21 rushing yards, and another score on the ground. He is currently QB9 for the week.

He stands out more, though, for “grit” and “overcoming” rather than tangible NFL stats. Penix averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt, a very middling number, and nearly 17% of his yards came on a short swing pass to Bijan Robinson that went for a 50-yard touchdown. In fact, Robinson's 100 receiving yards were 41 more than anyone else.

That's fine, as Robinson will be a large part of the offense, but Penix wasn't slinging the ball around, instead looking below average at times but making a few timely plays with his legs in the red zone to keep his team in the game. That all counts, but it won't help his fantasy performance as much in the long run.

Is It Real?

Penix is really taking over as the clear starter for the first time (after a few chances at the end of last season), and it's best to expect growing pains and rough stretches to go along with flashes. I don't mean to demonize his chances of succeeding as a real-life quarterback.

It matters in fantasy football, though, because there are likely to be more slow times than good times, something that will leave owners wanting more many weeks. He has highly drafted talent around him in Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts Sr. (LOL), so there will be plays made by his pass catchers, but Penix is likely to experience plenty of highs and lows, making him a risky fantasy proposition.

Penix is a guy you can think of as a streamer in the right situations, like Week 3 against the Panthers.

Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers

Everyone had an opinion on Rodgers entering the season. My take was that he was far past his best and would be average or worse, the way he has since his last season in Green Bay. Average is fine, but Rodgers wasn't a real fantasy football option because he was unlikely to uncork big games and won't run the ball.

Week 1 is enough to make us rethink things. Rodgers kept up with Fields in a surprisingly high-scoring affair (Pittsburgh won 34-32), going 22/30 for 244 yards (8.1 per attempt) with four touchdowns and no interceptions. That puts him as QB7 before Monday, a fine performance for a future Hall of Famer.

Is It Real?

Plenty of people want it to be real. Given his past success, there's a small part of me that must believe that Rodgers can succeed. There's a chance he can find sustained success. Fantasy performances like this won't come around often, though.

First, I can't ignore the lack of running. Rodgers took four sacks, and his only rush attempt was a kneel-down to end the game. While the other three listed here all topped 20 rushing yards and scored at least one touchdown, Rodgers showed what will be the norm: his legs won't move the ball at 41 years old.

His big scoring, then, is going to come from touchdowns. He started out pristine here, with four TDs and no interceptions, but that won't be the case every week. Even if he is able to avoid turnovers, Rodgers won't throw for four scores often. Taking away two of his touchdowns would drop him seven spots to QB14.

This was a vintage performance from an all-time great, but it won't be sustainable from a fantasy perspective. Worse games are going to put him in the teens often. He might still have enough to help his team win games, but Rodgers won't be a fantasy fixture moving forward. He's another player to trust only in the best matchups.