Fantasy Football Week 1 Who Should I Start: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, and More

Happy Sunday morning! It's time to set final fantasy lineups, and the decisions have started immediately, as our FantasySP Who Should I Start? tool has been hit hard at every position with owners trying to find the right combinations for Week 1 success.

Let's look at some of the quarterback comparisons being made around one of my favorite streaming quarterbacks of the week: Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence starts the year against the Panthers, one of the worst defenses from 2024. It's dangerous to assume that last year's performance will match this season, but we don't have much else to go on at this point, so that performance is one of our major data points.

We will compare Lawrence to three guys he has been matched up with most on the start/sit tool: C.J. Stroud, Jared Goff, and Justin Fields.

Use the FantasySP Who Should I Start? tool to check every matchup every week and put the best possible lineup together.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Lawrence appeared in just 10 games last season, and in one of those, he played fewer than one-third of the snaps. It was a disappointing season in what has been seen as a disappointing career for the fifth-year pro.

That's a little unfair. He came into the league in 2021 with as much hype as any quarterback since Andrew Luck, so the expectation was that he would be a star right away. Lawrence has been a perfectly reasonable QB after a rough rookie season, and there's hope that new players on the offensive line, second overall pick Travis Hunter, and new head coach and play caller Liam Coen can unlock something more this year.

It's dangerous to count on sustained success since we haven't seen it, but with those factors possibly in his favor and the matchup about as good as could be, I am confident that Lawrence can have a good Week 1 and finish as a top-10 fantasy QB against Carolina.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams

The major concern with Stroud is that he took a big step back from 2023 to 2024. With about the same volume on a per-game basis, Stroud went from around 64% to 63% completion, not a big deal, but it was accompanied by losing more than a full yard off his yards-per-attempt number (8.2 down to 7.0, which is the lower end of league average).

We can point to a bad offensive line, but his line was even worse in 2023 by ESPN's offensive/defensive win rate measures, so some of the blame has to go to Stroud as well. His pass catchers have failed to stay healthy; Tank Dell ended both seasons on IR and will miss much of 2025, and Nico Collins has missed seven games since Stroud joined the team.

Entering his third season with a new offensive line and a couple more Day 2 wide receivers in the lineup, Stroud will be expected to bounce back. We can't make excuses forever, as fellow draft-classmate Anthony Richardson Sr. found out.

The Rams were a little below average as a pass defense last season, both in terms of per-game and per-attempt numbers. They have much the same group back this year, and though there are a lot of young guys from whom we would expect improvements, it's better to see it in action than just expect it. They were around average on the defensive line by win rates.

I see this as an OK matchup for Stroud but not a great one. The potential improvements of the LA defense and potential improvements of the Houston offense leave a lot of unknown, making this a riskier play than some others; I'm more comfortable staying away in Week 1.

Advice: Start Trevor Lawrence over C.J. Stroud

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

From a production standpoint, Goff (another first overall pick) has been better than Lawrence since the latter entered the league. The last three years in particular, Goff has averaged around 4,500 yards with 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with an above-average yards-per-attempt number each season.

With more weapons around him as well, Goff is the better option by raw numbers. Even with Ben Johnson now in Chicago and a new play caller, Goff should be expected to play well again, like when he was a top-10 fantasy QB in each of those past three seasons.

The question comes when we factor in the matchup. The Packers were in the top 11 in terms of points per game, yards per game, rushing yards per game, and passing yards per attempt allowed. They were 13th in passing yards per game given up. You may have heard that they just added a huge defensive piece to the lineup.

While the secondary might be the weakest part of their defense, the Packers project to be an above-average group. I don't feel good about targeting them until we see them show vulnerability on defense. This decision comes down to whether you trust the player and system more of if you trust the matchup more; Goff would take the nod in the former, while Lawrence catches up in the latter.

Advice: It's very 50/50 here, but start Trevor Lawrence over Jared Goff by the slimmest of margins

Justin Fields, New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have been on Fields all preseason as a valuable fantasy draft target because he was being taken outside the top-12 quarterbacks while holding as much running prowess as anyone outside the top five fantasy QBs. In 2022, Fields ran for over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns, finishing as QB6 in fantasy. He has dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness otherwise, but that's an intriguing upside for a guy who was available for a late-round pick.

Fields has a bigger upside than Lawrence based on that running. The matchup is what pushes me toward the latter in this case. The Steelers were only in the middle in terms of defending the pass, but they allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards and eighth-fewest points last year. Those numbers might matter more for what Fields does best.

Pittsburgh also has high-level players at every part of the defense, from T.J. Watt rushing the passer to Patrick Queen patrolling the middle and Joey Porter Jr. in the secondary (along with trade addition Jalen Ramsey, who is on the downhill slide but can still help the team). The Steelers have the makings of an above-average defense.

With a tougher matchup and a quarterback who we expect to not be great often, it's risky to throw Fields into your lineup if you have another good option. He will have plenty of weeks with a good outlook, but I'm leaving Fields on the bench this week.

Advice: Start Trevor Lawrence over Justin Fields

QB Rankings

Here is how I rank four guys mentioned here in Week 1:

1. Trevor Lawrence, JAC
2. Jared Goff, DET
3. Justin Fields, PIT
4. C.J. Stroud, HOU