Week 1 Sunday DFS Lineup: Going With Top Running Backs, Like Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey
An example DFS lineup built around stud running backs with discounts at quarterback and wide receiver.
Building a DFS lineup can be done in a seemingly infinite number of ways. I generally like to have a plan at the start, like targeting a player or two who I really want, then adding a few good value players I have been targeting all week. From there, it's about getting the most talent and upside possible within the salary cap restraints.
Looking at Sunday's games, I am most excited about the strategy of building based around Trevor Lawrence. He has a great matchup against the Panthers and is a money-saving option, nearly $2,000 less than Jayden Daniels by DraftKings valuations. Other guys in the same price range include Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, and both Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson Sr.; I like Lawrence much better.
Let's look at an example DFS lineup built around Lawrence and a strong set of running backs. The players in the lineup are more about their value range than the specific guys themselves, but I will give my reasoning behind each pick and why I think that player could have a good week.
This is based on an eight-player lineup from DraftKings, using their valuations of players with a $50,000 salary cap.
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Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers
Lawrence only costs $5,300; Daniels is at $7,000. The Panthers gave up more points than any other team last season, and they are unlikely to improve greatly this year. They added a few rotational defensive linemen and a new safety in Tre'von Moehrig, but there is a lack of high-end talent, and Carolina could again be picked apart.
Lawrence was hurt and played just 10 games in 2024 and was playing about to his career numbers when on the field, which are good but not great. There is hope that he can see a bump this season after new additions on the offensive line, at wide receiver, and in the form of a new, offensive-minded head coach and play caller.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With savings at quarterback, we can splurge elsewhere, and that comes in the form of two of the best fantasy running backs. There's not a whole lot to say here: the best fantasy scores usually come from the best players in the league. Both McCaffrey and Robinson are going to run and catch the ball, letting them potentially make an impact on every play.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Bucky Irving, and Ashton Jeanty are other guys who would fit here nicely and can be expected to finish among the top running backs in fantasy points. McCaffrey's injury concerns are real, but it sounds like he should be full-go for Week 1, and I'm willing to take a little risk for the major upside.
Wide Receiver/Flex
Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Investing heavily at running back and tight end (more on that in a second) means taking relative bargains at wide receiver. The flex spot is also filled by a receiver because I had about $5,000 left when choosing that spot, and none of the running backs at that price enticed me. Instead, I invested in young receivers.
Egbuka, Golden, and Hunter are all rookies. They are all at least the WR2 on their respective team in Week 1, with Golden having the chance to even operate as a top option this year. They were also all first-round picks, and that group has been contributing early and often over the past half-decade or so.
Egbuka could be buried on the depth chart at times, but both Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan are missing the opening game, pushing Ebguka into a clear starting role. Golden is also among a group dealing with injuries, as Christian Watson will miss the beginning of the year, and Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are both questionable for the first game.
Jennings is an old man compared to the other three, but he's just 28 years old with four years of experience (and one year on the practice squad). The pecking order in San Francisco is a question mark with Brandon Aiyuk injured, Deebo Samuel Sr. traded, and Demarcus Robinson suspended, and Jennings is as likely as anyone to operate as the top wide receiver.
Tight End
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Bowers was drafted as the top tight end this year and is expected to operate not only as the league standard at the position but also as the top pass-catching option on the Raiders. TE often has the fewest real performers, and when you get a guy who is essentially a WR1, it changes the math for your fantasy team.
Sometimes in DFS, you just have to take the cheap option at tight end and hope for the best, like a random touchdown. In this case, though, I see value from some of the cheaper receivers and prefer to use the money on the top tight end, maybe expecting more points from Bowers than from any of the four WRs I grabbed.
Defense/Special Teams
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
The Cardinals are my favorite early-season defensive streaming team. That mainly comes down to the matchups, as Arizona starts the season at New Orleans and then home against Carolina.
They have also added a lot of talent to the roster, including pass rusher Josh Sweat and projected top-10 pick cornerback Will Johnson, who slipped to the second round due to injury concerns. I love Arizona's chances of being a top-10 fantasy defense, starting with a good first couple weeks against weaker competition.