Week 1 Fantasy Football Quarterback Start/Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and More

Start/sit is one of the simplest concepts in fantasy football. Every week, there are 32 starting quarterbacks taking the field (minus those on bye), and depending on the size and lineup rules of your league, only about 10-12 of them are going to be used. That means about two-thirds of NFL passers in action won't score fantasy points that count for your purposes.

With that, it leaves a lot of opportunities for streaming and picking through to build your perfect lineup. If you drafted someone like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, then your job is done; you're not benching them any time except for their bye week. If you waited and went with someone after the 10th round, though, then you're probably open to finding the best matchups each week and playing multiple QBs.

Let's look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in the opening week of the NFL season. This won't include anyone whose status is unquestioned: you don't need me to tell you to start Jalen Hurts or bench Spencer Rattler. Instead, we're looking at guys in the middle who will be startable some weeks but not feasible in others.

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Start

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Things change from year to year, so we can't simply look at last season's stats and pretend that we know who will succeed and struggle on defense. New players come in, coaches/coordinators/schemes change, and simple luck turns during a new set of games, for better and worse.

Here, we have two teams facing off who had two of the most porous pass defenses in the league last year, though, and look like they could be vulnerable again in 2025. In 2024, Jacksonville gave up the most yards per pass attempt of any team in the league, and Carolina was fourth worst. The Jags also gave up the most passing yards per game (while Carolina was 10th worst), and the Panthers allowed more points than any other team (Jacksonville was tied for fifth most).

The Panthers made a few moves to improve the defense, notably bringing in Bobby Brown III (Rams) and Tershawn Wharton (Chiefs) as part of the defensive line rotation and Tre'von Moehrig (Raiders) to man one of the safety spots, but this is likely to be a below-average defense again without major internal improvements.

The Jaguars brought in two new starters in the secondary in safety Eric Murray (Texans) and cornerback Jourdan Lewis (Cowboys), so that should help. They really need to get more out of the pass rush, though, where two former top-10 picks start on the outside (Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker). Again, internal improvement would be huge, but I'm looking at Jacksonville as a team likely to struggle against the pass. Rookie cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter is also in the mix, but he's more likely to make an impact on offense early, and we need to see him playing both ways before we can really tell what he will bring.

Between the two guys here, I prefer Lawrence. Jacksonville has more talent both on offense and defense, and Lawrence has been the better pro. Young looked much better during the second half of last season, but he was unplayable through his first year-and-a-half, so I want to see more before I really trust him (or his team). While they are only streamers in the fantasy world, both Lawrence and Young have prime matchups to start the season.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

This is as much about the Vikings as it is the Bears. Just look at Sam Darnold last year: for six seasons, Darnold looked like a below-average quarterback and clear bust after entering the league as the third overall pick in 2018.

Entering the Minnesota ecosystem, he immediately set career highs in attempts, completions, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, quarterback rating, and QBR. In most of those areas, he blew away his previous bests.

Rather than believe that Darnold suddenly found a new skillset, I'm banking on Justin Jefferson and (especially) head coach Kevin O'Connell being the big differences, along with a better offensive line putting Darnold in position to succeed. If that's the case, then McCarthy is stepping into that same role and theoretically has the same chance to succeed.

Chicago's raw numbers weren't so bad against the pass, as they were in the middle in passing yards allowed and toward the bottom in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They gave up the second-most yards per pass attempt (7.4, behind only Jacksonville), though, worse on a per-play basis than it might otherwise seem.

The Bears don't look much improved on defense either. Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo are new starters on the defensive line, but Jarrett is aged, and Odeyingbo has just been OK, not a true impact player. There's a chance here for Minnesota to start hot on offense against a team that is more prepared with their own offense than their defense with their new head coach.

I like McCarthy's season-long outlook more than Lawrence or Young. There's an obvious caveat that we haven't seen him play in any real games yet, but there is potential to hit the ground running if he can emulate what Darnold did, and I'm willing to bet that McCarthy will be at least an average fantasy QB.

Sit

Justin Fields, New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

I've been all over Fields as a good fantasy pick this offseason. He was drafted outside the top 10 at the position, available in the 12th round or so, and has a reasonable path to a top-10 fantasy QB finish. That has more to do with his running than passing, but that works just as well in the fantasy world.

The reason he begins the season on the “Sit” list is because of his opening matchup. Pittsburgh has one of the biggest differences between their ceiling and floor of any team in the league, mostly based around Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The former MVP now looks more like an average QB at best, and if his age catches up, Rodgers might fall to an even lower level.

Pittsburgh's defense figures to again be a stout unit, though, featuring stars like T.J. Watt and a strong core of players, from Joey Porter Jr. and Jalen Ramsey in the secondary to Patrick Queen in the middle of the field. They were more middling against the pass last year, but the Steelers were in the top eight in terms of points allowed and rushing yards allowed, areas that will probably affect Fields more.

He might still be able to rack up some yards with his legs, but it's unlikely that Fields will excel in this opening matchup. It might take a few weeks to look like the potential fantasy star he could be.

Matthew Stafford, St. Louis Rams vs. Houston Texans

Stafford faces as much uncertainty as any established veteran heading into 2025. He has dealt with injuries, including to his head, neck, and back, things that could hamper both his season and career as he plays this whole season at 37 years old. While his best is great, Stafford has been more of an average passer for much of his career, often sitting on the fringe of being fantasy relevant; his lack of running doesn't help in that aspect.

The Texans had one of the best defenses in the league the past two seasons. Last year, they allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest pass yards per game. There is high-level talent both rushing the passer (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter) and in the secondary (Derek Stingley, Jr.), with strong players and plenty of depth at all three levels. Every passer is likely to struggle more against Houston than they do in their normal game.

Stafford has weapons, and he will have some huge games this season, but Week 1 isn't the time to count on him. This has the makings of a quieter offensive day for the Rams.

Cameron Ward, Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

It's so hard to tell how rookies will perform. The past two seasons, the second overall pick (first C.J. Stroud and then Jayden Daniels) were fantastic while the top pick each year (Bryce Young and Caleb Williams) struggled both in real-life and fantasy football. That doesn't mean the 2025 top pick, Ward, is going to suffer the same fate, but it's risky to expect big things right away.

And to make matters worse, he starts off with maybe the toughest matchup any quarterback will face in Week 1. The Broncos have absolute demons on their defense. In 2024, they allowed the third-fewest points per game, third-fewest rushing yards per game, and third-fewest yards per pass attempt. From Zach Allen up front to Dre Greenlaw and Nik Bonitto in the middle and Pat Surtain II in the secondary (the reigning Defensive Player of the Year), Denver will make life miserable for many opposing offenses.

I think Ward can have some fantasy success as a rookie, particularly if he uses his legs to move the ball, but this isn't the place to try him out. If he comes out and looks great against the Broncos, though? Ward will be a hot name on the waiver wire. Just don't give up on his prospects the rest of the season if he struggles here.