AFC West Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios: Are the Chiefs Inevitable?
Best- and worst-case scenarios for the four teams in the AFC West.
Best- and worst-case scenarios are tricky. They come from expectations, and expectations are often thrust upon us by others, not from ourselves. Striving to live up to someone else's expectations is a bad way to live life. That doesn't stop us from putting our own expectations on professional teams and athletes, though.
In last week's look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the AFC East and AFC North teams, it was about two classes of team: the Super Bowl contenders and those with other realistic outcomes on the table. The AFC West can be seen the same way, though only one team is really on that contender list unless someone else proves differently.
Let's look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the four teams in the AFC West. We'll try to stay realistic, but this is also the time of year when we can stretch that term just a little.
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Denver Broncos
Best-Case Scenario: Major 2024 improvements continue, Bo Nix again plays like an average quarterback or better, and an ace defense allows the team to compete with the Chiefs
The defense is the biggest driving force behind this team. It matters that Sean Payton is regarded as one of the best offensive coaches of his generation, and it matters that Nix showed competence as a rookie, helping drive them to a playoff appearance. It also matters that their offensive line ranked first in terms of both pass blocking and run blocking last year, according to ESPN.
Denver might have the best defense in the league, though. They were second in pass rush win rate and eighth in run stop win rate by those same ESPN metrics. The Broncos allowed the third-fewest points and third-fewest rushing yards, and while they were in the middle in terms of total passing yards allowed, they were again third best in yards per pass attempt allowed.
The names are back; it's all about execution. Denver also added maybe the best cornerback in the draft in first-round pick Jahdae Barron, strengthening an already elite unit.
Worst-Case Scenario: Last year was an aberration, and the D (the more volatile side of the ball) can't carry the team again, taking Denver to a losing record
Defense is less consistent year to year than offense, so even a great group like the 2024 Broncos can see a drop the following season, leaving this team a little vulnerable. The offensive infrastructure around Nix, particularly the O-line, portends good things, but a few injuries can turn the tide quickly, and if Nix is under more pressure this year, it might not look quite as pretty.
I still believe in Denver as a wild card contender, but they need more growth from Nix to be able to contend with the Chiefs in the division, let alone the Bills, Ravens, and others in the AFC. There's also an easy path toward missing the playoffs if the road is a little tougher.
Kansas City Chiefs
Best-Case Scenario: Win the Super Bowl
What else is there? For a team that has been in five of the past six Super Bowls and won three of them, there is no consolation prize. KC is a product of their own success in that they can only be happy with another ring.
Worst-Case Scenario: Finally feeling the effects of losing talented players and a weakness at offensive tackle, maybe with an injury sprinkled in, Kansas City misses the playoffs
Sooner or later, they have to experience some bad luck, whether that's with injuries or something else, and a division with two other 2024 playoff teams looks as primed as any time in the recent past to knock off the Chiefs.
Kansas City is in the position they are because they have a strong roster, not just because of luck or Patrick Mahomes. It's not like they are just going to fall off. If one of the other teams (or maybe even multiple teams) in the division can step up and put up a real challenge, then a left tackle spot left to inexperienced and ineffective players, combined with the loss of All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, could open the door for someone else.
Missing the playoffs feels like a stretch, but entering as a wild card and/or losing early in the playoffs is a distinct possibility if luck flips the other way.
Las Vegas Raiders
Best-Case Scenario: Importing head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith helps turn the team around, and a talented offense with uber-prospect Ashton Jeanty is good enough to fight for a wild card
This is a possibility. I'm a Raider's fan, but I'm not one who over-evaluates my team; I realize how hopeless Vegas is most years. This has the makings of a functional offense, though, and a good coach and quarterback can make all the difference for any team. I hated the draft pick of Jeanty: running backs should never go in the top 10 (and maybe not even in the first round), but that doesn't mean he can't be a great pro and have a great rookie season, which could help push this team even higher.
The offensive line is an average group, and pass catchers Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers can lead a good-enough passing game. With some luck and maybe another guy emerging on offense, the Raiders could look downright good and compete for the playoffs.
Worst-Case Scenario: The upgrades aren't enough, and the defense lets the team down often enough that they end up with another top-10 pick
The defensive side is much more of a worry. Vegas looked OK by some numbers in 2024, but they tied for the seventh-most points allowed, just two points outside the top five. Maxx Crosby is a monster, but there's just not a lot of top-tier talent on the depth chart outside of him.
That doesn't necessarily mean they will fold, but when trying to compete with three playoff teams from last season, including the all-world Chiefs, it won't be good enough to just show up and improve. The Raiders still have a tough path forward.
Los Angeles Chargers
Best-Case Scenario: Last season's instant upgrade with coach Jim Harbaugh was just the first step, and a more talented roster returns to the playoffs and actually wins a game
LA already had the quarterback in Justin Herbert, but they upgraded majorly at head coach with Harbaugh and may have set the blueprint for what the Raiders are trying to follow this year. The Chargers might lack top-end talent, but they have a very solid roster in most areas, including the offensive line, which was above-average last season and added Mekhi Becton, who broke out in his shift from tackle to guard.
Herbert is an above-average quarterback who can elevate a pass-catching corps that seems to lack that top guy, though 2024 second rounder Ladd McConkey looked good last year and could become that player. Los Angeles looks like a fixture in the wild card race who could maybe compete for the division if things break right.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Chargers experience a little plexiglass effect and return to a losing record with a defense that can't keep up with the offense
Teams that experience a big rise or fall from one season to the next usually move back toward the middle the following season (the plexiglass effect), and that's what could be facing the Chargers, who jumped from 5-12 to 11-6. They also might be short on defense, particularly at pass rusher.
There was nothing wrong with cutting Joey Bosa to save a large amount of money; the former top-five pick was injured as much as he was on the field. It leaves their potential pass rush perilously thin, though, counting on 34-year-old Khalil Mack and a bunch of guys without proven production. The Chargers were 22nd in pass rush win rate last season, and it doesn't seem like they have the pieces to improve to even a league-average unit, which could hurt in a division that now has two competent QBs and the best player in the league.
If the Chargers disappoint this season, it will likely be because of luck bouncing the other way and the defense failing to live up to the level of a playoff team.
