AFC North Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios: Can Baltimore or Cincinnati Make a Run to the Super Bowl?

Yesterday, I began a series looking at the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team in the NFL for the 2025 season. The AFC East has one real contender and three teams hoping to chase them down; the AFC North is a little different.

Every team's best-case scenario is finishing the season as the Super Bowl champion. That's not realistic, though. Maybe 10-15 teams each year can truly say their ceiling is the ultimate game of the season; that's the maximum. The AFC North has two teams that look like they could make that claim and another who could compete for the playoffs (unless their quarterback finds the fountain of youth and pushes them up a notch).

Let's run through each team in the AFC North and look at their best- and worst-case scenarios. We will try to stay realistic while admittedly stretching that definition at times.

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Baltimore Ravens

Best-Case Scenario: The team finally breaks through with Lamar Jackson at QB and makes the Super Bowl, maybe even taking home the trophy

The only way Baltimore can have a successful season is by making the final game. Some will say that's unfair, but it's a product of how good the team is; it's a compliment. Lamar Jackson has won multiple MVP awards. The Ravens have been the top seed. The only thing left is to win at the highest level.

Their first two draft picks, safety Malaki Starks and pass rusher Mike Green, should be involved right away as contributors. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and cornerback Jaire Alexander offer veteran depth, though neither is at his superstar prime. The opportunity is there; it all comes down to whether they grab that brass ring.

Worst-Case Scenario: Baltimore wastes another prime season from their franchise quarterback

You only get so many years with top-tier players. Jackson was drafted in 2018 and will turn 29 before the season ends. It seems like he still has plenty of years left, but injuries have been an issue already in his career, and running quarterbacks are more susceptible to taking hits, maybe increasing the chance at more missed time.

The Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, and others aren't going to let the Ravens waltz through the AFC, so they need to take advantage of every chance they have to win big before the tide changes. An injury to Jackson is the worst-case scenario, along with losing early in the playoffs or maybe even missing the postseason if everything breaks wrong.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best-Case Scenario: Cincinnati emerges as the best team in the AFC North and competes for a title behind their big three on offense

This is the other team who could claim contender status in this division. The Bengals are coming off a disappointing season in which they missed the playoffs by one game while harboring one of the worst defenses in football. The offense will be fine: they scored the sixth-most points last season and return Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins to lead the charge.

Cincinnati was tied for the seventh-most points allowed, though, only two points from fourth place. It's not an exaggeration to say that the Bengals' defense cost them the postseason. Luck was also against them, as seven of Cincinnati's eight losses were by seven points or less. On the flip side, only four of their nine wins were one-score games, showing that they were a successful team who didn't get the bounces.

Worst-Case Scenario: The defense sinks the team, like it did in 2024, and the Bengals again miss out on a wild card berth

It's a bad start so far. Two pass rushers they would seem to be counting on heavily, star Trey Hendrickson and first-round pick Shemar Stewart, are both absent from training camp due to contract disputes. There's not a lot of high-level talent on that unit, so missing two of the guys who could conceivably make a big difference is sub-optimal.

I believe in Cincinnati, but we need to see their defense have any level of success before truly saying they could be a contender. If the D looks more like the 2024 unit, it might be too big of an ask for the offense to carry this team back to the postseason.

Cleveland Browns

Best-Case Scenario: End up with two top-five picks next April

Cleveland made one of the best trades in the draft, moving down from No. 2 to No. 5 and picking up Jacksonville's 2026 first-round pick (and much more). The Jaguars could implode and end up handing the Browns another premium pick, a disastrous outcome for the Jags but a fantastic scenario for Cleveland.

The super-best-case scenario is that the Browns have those premium picks and don't have to draft a quarterback because one of their young passers (rookies Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders) takes the reigns in the mid-to-late season and looks like he could be the guy. Being those players were mid-round picks, though, the most likely scenario is that no one stands out, and Cleveland is looking for a blue-chip prospect in the 2026 draft.

I guess we could also say best case means the Browns making the playoffs while Jacksonville hands them a high pick, but let's be real: adding two great talents would be best for the Browns and is within the realm of possibility.

Worst-Case Scenario: The team is awful again, none of the QBs shows anything, and Cleveland wins a few meaningless games late to push themselves out of prime territory to pick their next passer

They would seem to have the ammo to trade up based on the extra picks from the Jaguars, but it takes two to tango, and teams picking ahead of Cleveland might not want to trade out when they can take their own top-tier quarterback prospect. It happens every year that a team is in line for the top pick only to screw themselves over with a random late win.

If the Browns do indeed make it to the end of the year in position for a premium pick, they would do best to ignore their best instincts and accept a loss (though of course, players are never going to go out with the intention of losing).

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best-Case Scenario: Aaron Rodgers plays like it's 2018, not 2025, and carries the Steelers to the playoffs with a chance to win big

I don't have any faith in Rodgers playing like an above-average quarterback. He missed essentially all of 2023 with an Achilles injury then returned last year to put up his worst yards-per-attempt number (6.7, tied with his 2015), his worst quarterback rating, and his worst QBR. He won't necessarily play even worse in 2025, but he's not going to suddenly bounce back to an MVP level.

That is Pittsburgh's best-case scenario, though, is that Rodgers finds the fountain of youth. The offensive line has four recent draft picks (three in the first two rounds) and a big-time free agent signing in Isaac Seumalo, and receiver DK Metcalf and rookie running back Kaleb Johnson should help, but the Steelers are likely going to have to rely on something other than a high-level offense to be successful.

The defense might be good enough to carry the team. They gave up the eighth-fewest points last season, only about two touchdowns from the top five. Pittsburgh also gave up the sixth-fewest rushing yards, just 15 yards from fourth. If the offense can approach average and the defense stays stout, this team could show up in the postseason.

Worst-Case Scenario: Rodgers looks 41 years old and whimpers out in his final season while the defense isn't good enough to pick up the slack

If the defense slips, this team is doomed. T.J. Watt is back with a new contract, and the team signed Darius Slay and traded for Jalen Ramsey (while losing safety Minkah Fitzpatrick) to raise the level of the cornerback group, so the pieces are there.

Defensive performance is less consistent from year to year than offense, though, so there is more of a chance that even a solid unit could underperform. It feels like there's more downside than upside with this team. They usually pull off some magic to make it above .500, but that's probably their ceiling, falling short of true contention.