AFC South Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios: Is this the Year the Texans Break Through?

Last week, we looked at best- and worst-case scenarios for the teams in the AFC East and AFC North. No fewer than three teams within those divisions realistically can say it's a disappointment if they don't make the Conference Championship Game. There's no such team in the AFC South.

The Houston Texans have won the division two years in a row and would certainly see that as their next step, but it doesn't feel like the Texans are on that level, especially as they try to rebuild their offensive line on the fly. The South seems more wide open, where any team could take the division crown while not truly competing in the playoffs.

Let's go through each of the four teams in the AFC South and look at some of the best- and worst-case scenarios for each squad. We will try to stay realistic for each group, but being it's the preseason, we can stretch reality just a little.

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Houston Texans

Best-Case Scenario: C.J. Stroud bounces back, the defense looks even better, and the team makes a run to the AFC Championship Game, and maybe further

Houston's defense is probably the group we can count on. They have a defensive head coach in DeMeco Ryans and stars like pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. I believe in that unit to make a positive impact again.

The offense is more suspect. It all starts with Stroud, who followed up his Rookie-of-the-Year campaign by seeing nearly every number drop significantly, most of all his yards per attempt (8.2 down to 7) and TD-to-INT ratio (23 to 5 as a rookie, 20 to 12 last season). It's easy to blame the offensive line, which was bad, but they also graded out poorly in 2023, and Stroud still excelled.

Worst-Case Scenario: Stroud's sophomore slump continues, and the offensive line again lets down the offense to the point that they aren't real contenders, causing Houston to miss the playoffs

If the offense sputters again, the Texans will leave the door open for another team in the South to take the division crown. Houston is the favorite, and rightfully so, but they felt far from a true contender by last year's playoffs and are probably closer to falling out of the playoffs than making a run at the Super Bowl.

If the defense regresses on top of the offense continuing to struggle? Well, maybe another one of these middling teams can surprise the world and take down the two-time defending champs.

Indianapolis Colts

Best-Case Scenario: Anthony Richardson Sr. proves he is the quarterback of the future, and the team competes for the division crown

Every team in the South has a case for winning the division if Houston takes another step backward. Indy's best chance seems to be Richardson showing why he was a top-five pick a few years ago. He is an uber-athlete and can run the ball, but that has also put him at injury risk, part of why he missed most of his rookie season.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson aren't great because they run, though. They are great because they are top runners who can also beat defenses with their arm on every play. Richardson has immense arm strength, but he also throws off target as much as any other QB; that's not going to cut it.

Worst-Case Scenario: Neither Richardson nor Daniel Jones plays to an acceptable level, leaving the Colts to target another quarterback next season without a pick high enough for a top guy

If Richardson doesn't look good enough, Jones was brought in on a one-year deal and could be the starter. That's not an exciting outcome for Colts' fans. He could be that one-year solution who helps push Richardson and maybe gets the chance to get the team to a wild card, but this roster isn't good enough to support a subpar quarterback; they need a QB to step up and lead this team if they're going to win.

There's a very realistic outcome in which neither quarterback plays at a high level, but Indianapolis wins about seven games and is out of range for the top quarterbacks in the draft. If that's the case and Richardson shows flashes, he might get one more chance next season, even if he doesn't shine.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best-Case Scenario: New coach Liam Coen brings his magic from last year's Tampa Bay offense and helps Trevor Lawrence look like another former top overall pick who took a major leap in Baker Mayfield

Tampa's offense played at a high level last season, helping Coen secure the job in Jacksonville. The biggest thing toward winning big is getting Lawrence to look like the generational prospect he was coming out of college. Lawrence has been fine in his four years; he gets unfairly judged because of the expectations when he entered he league. He has rarely shown that he can play at an elite level, though, bringing questions of just how much growth he has left.

Like the Colts, Jacksonville has good players on the roster, but they aren't good enough to lift a quarterback to another level. Lawrence needs to be that guy. Coen will be expected to find success right away, and the division is there to be had if they can hit the ground running.

Worst-Case Scenario: Jacksonville hands a top-five pick to the Browns

The Jags traded up from No. 5 to No. 2 to take wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, a player expected to play both ways right away. I hated the move for Jacksonville, especially because they gave Cleveland their 2026 first-round pick. There's a clear path to the Jaguars failing to excel this season and ending up among the five or 10 worst teams in the league, handing the Browns a premium pick.

The defense might be the thing to sink them. Last season, Jacksonville gave up the fifth-most points (tied with Cleveland), eight-most rushing yards, and the most passing yards. They were a target in fantasy football every week. If the defense plays at that level again, it won't matter what the offense does; this team won't make an impact. The depth chart looks very similar, so it will take internal improvement to see a real jump, a risky proposition.

Hunter is an exciting prospect, but the most likely outcome is that he doesn't make a huge impact defensively as a rookie, especially splitting time, so the highly regarded pass rushers might have to be the guys to make the difference. I see it more likely that Jacksonville hands over a top-10 pick than makes the playoffs. DUUUUVALLLLLLL! (I don't know if I'll link that video every time I talk about the Jaguars, but until they show something positive, it just feels right).

Tennessee Titans

Best-Case Scenario: Cam Ward is this season's Jayden Daniels and takes a team that upgraded its veteran talent the past two offseasons to the playoffs, and maybe even a division crown

An incomplete list of offensive veterans that Tennessee imported in the 2024 and 2025 offseasons: RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tyler Lockett, LT Dan Moore, C Lloyd Cushenberry, RG Kevin Zeitler. They drafted right tackle JC Latham in the top 10 last year and left guard Peter Skoronski 11th overall in 2023. The infrastructure is there for Ward to succeed right away, even if there are growing pains.

Washington did the same thing last year, supplementing both the offense and defense with veteran talent, and it's part of the reason Daniels had such a phenomenal rookie year. It's unfair to ask Ward to replicate what Daniels did last season, but he does play a similar style, able to win with his legs as well as his arm, so he could help the offense move the ball while a defense that was successful in 2024 does their thing.

Worst-Case Scenario: The veterans are too old/mediocre, and Ward doesn't have enough support around him, looking overmatched as a rookie

Part of the problem with signing a bunch of veterans is that they are paid higher salaries and are often on the way down, while drafted players are cheaper and generally assumed to improve. All six of the offensive veteran additions I listed above could reasonably fail in 2025, turning a seemingly nice group into more of a wasteland of bloated contracts.

Defense is less consistent than offense, so that successful group from last year might turn the other way in 2025. If everything is put on Ward to be the savior, things probably aren't going to go well. The Titans don't have to win big this year to make it a success; they just need to show competency, especially under center. If things go the other way, though, and they are picking in the top five again, there will likely be changes coming to the roster and maybe the coaching staff.