AFC Division Winner Odds: Best Bets, Sleepers and Favorites

We're officially at the slow point of the NFL calendar. Sure, a few moves are being made, such as Aaron Rodgers finally signing on with Pittsburgh and the Packers cutting Jaire Alexander, but most player movement is done, at least until rosters need to be trimmed down prior to the season.

A lot of the best NFL content during the summer centers around futures betting, such as division champions, individual awards, and statistical leaders. Working in that space, let's go through each division in the AFC to see who the current betting favorite is, pick the most likely underdog, and determine who is the best bet given the odds.

That last point is important: When I say “Best Bet” below, I don't mean the team most likely to win the division. I'm referring to the team that I would choose to place a bet on based on the listed return. All betting odds are from DraftKings and correct as of June 10. Check out the NFC division breakdowns also.

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AFC East

2024 Champion: Buffalo Bills

Favorite: Bills (-260)

No surprise here: Buffalo has won the division every season since 2020. Tom Brady was a Patriot the last time the Bills weren't AFC East champions. They have the best quarterback in the division, the best roster in the division, and possibly the best coach in the division, though that last point is arguable.

Sleeper Pick: New England Patriots (+475)

The Patriots have the second-best odds to win the division, a surprise given they were one of the worst teams in the league each of the past two seasons. It appears they have found their quarterback in Drake Maye, and the hiring of Mike Vrabel as head coach is a positive, so two major pillars are taken care of. The rest of the roster still needs more talent, and New England isn't likely to make the jump over Buffalo, but the Pats are moving the right way.

Best Bet: New York Jets (+1800)

No one is likely to catch the Bills, so if you're going to bet on someone else to take the division crown, why not go for the longest odds and best return on investment? I'm not recommending this bet; Buffalo is the team I would actually put money on. This is a lottery ticket, though, and the best lottery ticket is the one that could hit the biggest jackpot.

The Jets have a new coach (Aaron Glenn) and a new quarterback (Justin Fields), so it's feasible to see them as a team who could take a big step forward. There's just a long way to go for New York to jump from their 2024 level to the top of the division.

Other: Miami Dolphins (+650)

The Dolphins were a trendy pick last season, but they regressed and again saw Tua Tagovailoa miss six games. They watched a lot of talent walk out the door the past few offseasons, and Tyreek Hill had maybe his worst season since 2016 last year. It's telling that Vegas sees the Patriots as more likely to win the division than Miami this year.

Miami appears to be on the way down rather than the way up, but they still have dangerous pieces and an innovative play caller for a head coach, so the Dolphins have a puncher's chance, especially if the run game gets back to 2023 levels.

AFC North

2024 Champion: Baltimore Ravens

Favorite: Ravens (-145)

It starts with multi-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and continues with guys like Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Kyle Hamilton, Nnamdi Madubuike, and more who keep the Ravens at a top-tier level. Nothing less than a Super Bowl appearance can be considered a success, something that speaks to how good this Baltimore team really is.

Sleeper Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+550)

We could flip-flop the Steelers and Bengals here. I've got more faith in Cincinnati, which is why I'm calling them the best bet, but the extra return on a Pittsburgh win makes them intriguing. The main argument in their favor is that the Steelers have a lot of really good players.

T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, DK Metcalf, Joey Porter Jr., and a group of highly drafted/paid offensive linemen are just a few of the players with the ability to play at a high level and lead the team to double-digit wins.

A lot will come down to how their new future-hall-of-fame quarterback plays. If Aaron Rodgers finds the fountain of youth, this team has Super Bowl upside. The more likely outcome is that Rodgers is middling at best and the rest of the roster has to step up to carry the team to success. This feels like a team that will battle for a wild card rather than the division.

Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals (+230)

Joe Burrow got his wish: he took as much money as he possibly could and then got each of his top two receivers paid handsomely, locking in a big three that has no option other than being great if the team is to succeed. That money allocated to the offensive side of the ball might cost the Bengals their best defensive player, and that unit will be the one questioned most often if Cincinnati falters.

A great quarterback fixes a lot of other things, and Burrow is up to that level. He'll have to repeat his MVP-worthy performance from 2024 if they hope to overcome a deeper team in Baltimore who has won double-digit games in six of the past seven seasons.

Other: Cleveland Browns (+3000)

I just can't squint hard enough to see a situation in which the Browns make a run at the division. It would be based around a talented defense getting back to playing lockdown D while one of their mid-round rookie quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders, bursts onto the scene.

The talent deficit on offense is probably too much to expect anything big from Cleveland; they're more likely to fight for the No. 1 pick than the AFC North crown.

AFC South

2024 Champion: Houston Texans

Favorite: Texans (+115)

Though they repeated as division champions, the Texans regressed last season, harboring a below-average offensive line and seeing young quarterback C.J. Stroud take a step back after a great rookie season. Those two things might be related: Houston overhauled their offensive line this offseason and surely hope to see improvement.

The team will have to show they are closer to their 2023 form if they want to make a real case as contenders, though, otherwise their spot atop the AFC South is perilous. They still have the makings of a great defense, so Houston has a little wiggle room in a division without a high-level team.

Sleeper Pick: Tennessee Titans (+650)

This is based around the idea of the Titans doing what Washington did last season and Houston did the year before: a quarterback drafted in the top two hits big right away and takes a team that made a big talent upgrade to new heights.

Over the past two offseasons, Tennessee has added Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, and an entire new offensive line, with two top-10 picks and three big-time free agent additions (left guard Peter Skoronski was actually added in 2023, but he fits the makeover dynamic). There's a pretty solid foundation here for rookie QB Cam Ward to start with.

Best Bet: Titans

Tennessee has the worst odds of any of the four teams to win the AFC South, and that alone makes them the most intriguing. They might be better defensively than offensively, which could help keep things close until the rookie quarterback makes plays. This division feels like as much of a toss-up as any, making the team with the longest odds the best bet.

Others: Jacksonville Jaguars (+260) and Indianapolis Colts (+380)

Jacksonville brought in a new head coach in Liam Coen and made a major move up the board for two-way star Travis Hunter in the draft, creating a lot of buzz around the Jaguars. They have highly regarded talent at major positions, including Hunter, quarterback Trevor Lawrence, receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. They have pieces that could coalesce into something good, but this team has had big expectations for the past few years and hasn't done anything. I want to see it first.

The Colts would be on the right track if quarterback Anthony Richardson had shown growth over the past two seasons, especially as a passer. Instead, the team brought in Daniel Jones to add some competition and be around in case Richardson gets hurt again, which seems likely given that it happened each of the past two seasons. This team has the furthest stretch in my mind of winning the AFC South this season.

AFC West

2024 Champion: Kansas City Chiefs

Favorite: Chiefs (-120)

Who else would it be? There's not a lot else to say about the team who has been to the past three Super Bowls and five of the last six. With Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes still in place along with a lot of Pro-Bowl-level players, someone is going to have to come take the division crown from the Chiefs; they're not giving it up.

Sleeper Pick: Denver Broncos (+300) and Los Angeles Chargers (+310)

Denver and LA have very similar outlooks entering 2025: they both have veteran coaches with a history of success, young quarterbacks who have won, good surrounding pieces around those QBs, and the immovable object that is the Kansas City Chiefs standing in front of them.

The Broncos were one of the most surprising teams of 2024, as Bo Nix showed competence immediately and helped direct Denver to wins as the defense did the heavy lifting in pushing them into the playoffs. They will still be led by the D, but more will be expected of Nix in Year 2, especially with new starters at running back and tight end.

The Chargers were often seen last season as a team that would be going through a retooling year, but they clicked immediately under coach Jim Harbaugh and made a run to the playoffs. They aren't at the level of the top teams, but if LA can keep improving and maybe get a breakout from running back Omarion Hampton or receiver Ladd McConkey, they have pieces in place to be a dangerous team.

I can't actually pick either of these teams to overtake KC, and it's hard to know which would be the one to grab the brass ring if they were able to. That makes this bet even tougher and makes me want to stay away from these mid-tier teams.

Best Bet: Chiefs

Close to even odds, I can't take anyone other than Kansas City. They will eventually falter, or injuries might catch up, but the Chiefs have a pretty good return in a division that they have won every year dating back to 2016.

Other: Las Vegas Raiders (+2000)

This bet would be about the size of the number next to the Raiders rather than the team itself. Everyone else is at +310 or better, leaving Las Vegas returning much more money with a division title. I don't think the Raiders have a chance at the AFC West, but the return makes them at least a little intriguing.

The Raiders made huge upgrades at two of the most important spots on the team: quarterback and head coach. Geno Smith and Pete Caroll reunite after fairly successful time together in Seattle, and the team also drafted star running back prospect Ashton Jeanty; they could have an above-average offense right away.

The defense isn't very good but does have a few high-level players, including star pass rusher Maxx Crosby. The Raiders are highly unlikely to win this division, but that's why the number is so high. This would be more of a lottery ticket.