NFC Division Champion Betting Odds: Favorites, Underdogs and Best Bets

Yesterday, I went through each AFC division to identify the betting favorite to win the division, the most likely underdog to take the crown, and the best bet based on the listed odds. It only makes sense that we would cover the NFC in the same fashion today.

Let's go through each division in the NFC to see who the current favorite is, a possible underdog pick, and who is the best bet given the odds. All betting odds are from DraftKings and correct as of June 11. “Best Bet” doesn't necessarily mean the team I think will win the division; it's the team who I would place money on if I were wagering on the division champs.

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NFC East

2024 Champion: Philadelphia Eagles

Favorite: Eagles (-135)

Philadelphia will be a favorite to win the division, the conference, and the Super Bowl until they prove otherwise. The Eagles are as deep as any team in the league and have talent at every position, including top-tier players in Saquon Barkley, Lane Johnson, and more. Some teams tried outlawing the Tush Push this offseason, but the resolution failed, so Philly's favorite short-yardage play is still here to terrorize opposing defenses.

Sleeper Pick: Washington Commanders (+205)

Washington was THE team to make a jump last season, going from the second overall pick to 12 wins and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Quarterback Jayden Daniels was the main culprit in their ascent, but the team also made meaningful additions at every position/level on both offense and defense, infusing the roster with veteran talent.

They didn't slow down this offseason, with the offense adding left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. both through trade and right tackle Josh Conerly Jr. with a first-round pick. Washington has a solid roster and the second-best listed chance of winning the NFC East.

Best Bet: Eagles

The division is a tougher one, but the defending Super Bowl champs are close to even money to win the NFC East. They have the best odds to win the NFC and the best odds to win the Super Bowl; it's easy to see the team repeating their 2024 run. While the Commanders and Cowboys will both play a role, Philadelphia looks like the clear favorite in the division, and their number isn't too bad at -135.

Others: Dallas Cowboys (+600) and New York Giants (+2500)

Many will be way down on Dallas this year after a lost 2024 that was decimated by injuries. That's exactly what I'm viewing it as, though: a lost season. They still have Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons leading the way, and they have put more resources into the offensive line to help replenish the talent lost over the past few offseasons, though they won't be up to the top level they were several years back. Dallas won't be favored as a playoff contender, but their long odds make them a sneaky contender for “Best Bet” in this division.

The Giants are on the other side of the coin. They also struggled in 2024, but they don't have the same upside this year, both because they don't have the same top-level talent and because their quarterback situation isn't as settled. Bringing in Russell Wilson for 2025 is fine, but he's not going to carry this team to glory; other players need to step up in a big way if they are going to make a real playoff/division run. The most likely outcome is that rookie Jaxson Dart is playing by the end of the season as the Giants look forward to 2026.

NFC North

2024 Champion: Detroit Lions

Favorite: Lions (+140)

Detroit is one of three division favorites who don't have negative odds (the other two are coming up). They were the top seed in the NFC last year, and it's really a shame we didn't get the chance to see Detroit and Philadelphia face off in the NFC Championship Game, where the Eagles beat up the Commanders.

They bring back most of the same players, but the Lions will have to show they can do it with different coaches, as both their offensive and defensive coordinators took head-coaching gigs with other teams. The biggest reason they still have favorable odds is because they play in one of the toughest divisions.

Sleeper Pick: Chicago Bears (+425)

Speaking of Detroit's ex-offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson now leads the division-rival Bears, as they hope to find cohesion and success that wasn't always there last season. Quarterback Caleb Williams was a blue-chip prospect, and he is now surrounded by great receivers, tight ends, and offensive linemen. With Johnson leading the way, Chicago doesn't have any excuses for the offense failing to live up to expectations.

The defense is another story. They finished in the bottom 10 in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate last year (by ESPN's measure), and they didn't make an impact addition that figures to meaningfully raise their floor when getting after the quarterback. Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo were both signed, but they don't figure to be high-level pass rushers (especially Jarrett at this late stage of his career), so the Bears might struggle most when trying to affect opposing quarterbacks.

Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings (+400)

Quarterback Sam Darnold walking out the door would seemingly leave the Vikings starting from way behind, but I'm not so convinced. Darnold was a below-average QB his whole career until meeting up with coach Kevin O'Connell; replacing Darnold is another first-round talent who Minnesota drafted last year in J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy missed all last season with an injury, but he's in line to be the starter this year. It's impossible to know what to really expect until we see it on the field, but a top play caller and receiver will make his life much easier, as will a deep roster around him. McCarthy figures to be the possible “weak link,” so instant success out of him would turn this team into a division contender easily.

Others: Green Bay Packers (+260)

The Packers have a better chance to win the division than either the Vikings or Bears, and their odds reflect that, which is what pushes them down out of the “Best Bet” discussion. They have a quarterback who has shown good things in Jordan Love, but he's not on the level of a top QB. The rest of the roster is very good, but they probably aren't great, and they'll have six tough division games. It's reasonable to think we could see the Packers step back from 11 wins and a playoff berth, though they still have the talent to get there.

NFC South

2024 Champion: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Favorite: Bucs (+100)

They have won the division four straight times and walk into this year with the clear best team on paper. Baker Mayfield has looked every bit like a first-round pick after he was eschewed from the Browns, and they have maybe the top set of receivers in football (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, rookie Emeka Egbuka), setting up for success offensively. Tampa also had a top-five offensive line last season and will return all five starters; this team might have one of the best offensive units in football.

Sleeper Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+240)

A lot of this comes down to quarterback Michael Penix. Like the Vikings, Atlanta has a roster that looks like it could compete for the playoffs, but they are relying on a second-year quarterback who we have barely seen on the field, and Penix's development and ability to play at a high level right away will dictate how much of a chance the Falcons really have.

The rest of their roster is OK; Drake London and Bijan Robinson are high-level skill players, and Atlanta is another team that has invested heavily into the offensive line with early draft picks and big money. They have a few defensive stars (safety Jessie Bates III, corner A.J. Terrell) and drafted two pass rushers in the first round, throwing resources at probably their biggest offseason need. This team has the ability to compete for the division, but they need everyone to show up, most importantly their young quarterback.

Best Bet: Bucs

I talked about their offense above, but their ceiling will ultimately come down to the defense. Tampa scored the fourth-most points per game last year while ranking right in the middle on defense; another performance like that will put them right back in the playoffs. If they can raise that level of play on defense, the Bucs could look more like true contenders (as long as the offense holds).

Others: Carolina Panthers (+400) and New Orleans Saints (+1000)

Carolina looks like a different team from two years ago, especially with Bryce Young looking functional during the second half of last season. They went from having below-replacement-level players in many spots to having highly drafted and highly paid guys throughout the depth chart, especially surrounding their young QB on offense. The defense will probably still be below average, but this team is moving in the right direction; it'll just take another year or more to get there.

New Orleans got a major setback in their playoff odds when quarterback Derek Carr announced his retirement. They probably weren't going anywhere anyway: the roster is seriously lacking both depth and high-level talent. The team will now have to rely on one of their young quarterbacks, though, most likely second-round rookie Tyler Shough (pronounced like Shuck). The Saints have one of the lowest floors this season, particularly if none of their QBs are up to the task.

NFC West

2024 Champion: Los Angeles Rams

Favorite: San Francisco 49ers (+150)

Like the Cowboys, the 49ers have to look at 2024 as a lost season. They lost tons of big talent to injury, including left tackle Trent Williams and receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Samuel, and that's not even mentioning the defense. It's reasonable to expect a bounce back with better health, but San Francisco also watched a lot of talent walk out the door this offseason.

Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, and Charvarius Ward are some of the names in different places, leaving a lot of high-level snaps to be filled. Some of those guys were injury problems last year, but they still can't be expected to return this year the way a guy like Aiyuk can.

It makes sense that they are the favorites in the division, but San Fran has a ton of unanswered questions that make them as unknown as any time in the past few years. This division remains wide open.

Sleeper Pick: Rams (+195)

Last year's division champs look a lot the same. That's a good thing because they won the NFC West and a playoff game, but it also means that they might be a piece or two short, especially on defense. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua return, and Davante Adams has joined as a high-upside WR2, though he must be expected to be a level below his peak. The offense has a lot of veteran talent.

The defense is more of a question. They have a lot of young talent, but those guys also have to prove they can make a big impact consistently to help support the offense. Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#player-pop-up" href="/nfl_player_news/Byron_Young/">Byron Young were all taken within the first three rounds over the past three drafts, meaning there is upside but still a lack of polish on the defensive side.

Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals (+475)

The odds dictate this pick. It again looks like any of the four teams could conceivably win the division, so I looked for the biggest return. Arizona has a capable quarterback in Kyler Murray, and they have added a lot of talent over the past two offseasons.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, Darius Robinson, and rookies Walter Nolen III and Will Johnson were all either drafted in the first two rounds or signed as free agents to sizeable contracts, and they all play premium positions. If several of them pop, this team could look a lot different by the time we hit Thanksgiving.

They're not as likely to win the division as the 49ers or Rams, as the odds suggest, but I like the chances of the Cardinals to make a jump because they have so many guys who can be expected to contribute.

Others: Seattle Seahawks (+475)

The Seahawks have an argument for “Best Bet,” as they have the same odds as the Cardinals, but I knocked them down a notch for two main reasons. First, they traded quarterback Geno Smith to the Raiders and signed Darnold to lead the offense. I mentioned above that we have plenty of evidence of Darnold playing as a below-average quarterback, and his only real success came with one of the best receivers in football and one of the most regarded offensive play callers; he won't have that in Seattle.

On top of losing their quarterback, Seattle shed more top-level talent, including trading away DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh and replacing him with Cooper Kupp. We know Kupp was phenomenal at his peak, but he has missed games in every season since his award-winning 2021 year. There's still enough here to believe that the Seahawks could make a run at the playoffs, especially if Darnold holds most of his level of play, but I'm down on Seattle after liking their path the past few years.