Fantasy Football Week 14 D/ST Start/Sit: Titans, Dolphins, Packers, Chiefs

Welcome to the Week 14 fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! As always, let’s start by looking back at last week’s results. I went one for two on the Start side, as the Commanders were solid but the Buccaneers failed to shut down Bryce Young 2.0. Results were also mixed for my Sit picks, mostly because the Steelers somehow managed 14 fantasy points despite giving up 38 real-life NFL points.

Things went better (or worse, depending on how you look at it) with the Ravens (four points) and 49ers (an absurd negative four points). Those were my final two picks of the article last week, so hopefully we can keep that momentum going into Week 14. Let’s get started!

For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

As always, I want to start by featuring one team from my Week 14 DST Streaming Picks. This week, that’s the Titans, who are still available in well over half of fantasy leagues despite an excellent matchup this week with the Mac Jones-led Jaguars. 

Jones actually looked decent after taking over for Trevor Lawrence halfway through the Jaguars’ Week 13 matchup. However, he performed so terribly in his previous two starts that he still ranks as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. Among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, he ranks third-worst in EPA per play and second-worst in success rate. 

The Titans’ defense is looking banged up heading into this divisional matchup. But they still rank solidly above average in just about every measure of defensive effectiveness for the season, including second in the league in yards per game allowed. I like their chance to hold Jones and Co. in check this week.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

This one is a bit scary, as the Jets still have plenty of talent. However, the numbers don’t lie: New York’s offense has become one to target with fantasy defenses. They have allowed two top-five fantasy outings over their last three weeks despite facing middle-of-the-road defenses in Seattle, Indianapolis, and Arizona. Since Week 10, the Jets’ offense ranks fourth-worst in the league in EPA per play, only beating out the Jaguars, Giants, and Cowboys. 

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has taken at least two sacks in each of their last four games. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the league at avoiding turnovers, with a 2.1% turnover-worthy-play rate … but he makes up for it with a terrible 6.3 yards per attempt. The Jets as a whole also still rank exactly average in terms of the percentage of their drives that end in turnovers. 

Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense has quietly been very solid this season. They rank 13th-best in points given up per game, seventh-best in yards per game, and 12th-best in EPA per play. Again, this isn’t a no-brainer spot, as the Jets have enough playmakers that there’s always a chance that things go badly (although they may be missing Breece Hall this week, which would be one fewer playmaker to worry about). But if you’re looking around for a defense that is still available, the Dolphins may be there to save the day. 

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 14

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

The Lions’ defense is objectively one of the best in the league. Despite playing alongside a high-powered offense, they rank 10th-best in yards per game and second-best in points per game. They recently jumped their division-rival Vikings to lead the entire league in terms of EPA per play allowed. 

However, matchups are simply so much more important than defensive ability when it comes to fantasy DST scoring. And this is a brutal matchup that the Lions have on Thursday night. The Packers’ offense ranks eighth in EPA per play, third in yards per game, and eighth in points per game. That’s despite having played multiple games with Jordan Love either banged up or out entirely.

Love is a bit of a gun-slinger with a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate, but he also boasts the second-lowest sack rate in the league at just 3.14%. If you are one of the 61% of fantasy managers currently starting the Lions’ defense, this is your sign to make a change … and do it fast, because they head into Lambeau tonight. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers’ defense has been excellent in year one under Jim Harbaugh. They have allowed the fewest points per game in the league at just 15.7 and also rank fourth in terms of EPA per play given up. However, they do land closer to average in terms of yardage, where they give up just the 14th-fewest yards per game. 

More importantly, I’m simply never going to recommend playing a defense against Patrick Mahomes. I don’t care how badly he has been playing this season. And, for what it’s worth, the Chiefs’ offensive decline has been overrated, as they still rank ninth in EPA per play and second in success rate. Mahomes is only slightly better than the league average in terms of sack rate, but he ranks 11th-best in terms of turnover-worthy plays. Defenses against Kansas City have averaged just 5.1 points per game. That’s not terrible, but I’m certainly not going to chase it. Leave LA’s defense on your bench (or the waiver wire) this week. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.