San Fran's Christian McCaffrey Cleared for Takeoff | How the Star RB's Return Affects Fantasy Outlooks for Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and More

After nine long weeks, fantasy football owners are more than ready to see San Francisco 49ers superstar running back Christian McCaffrey make his season debut.

He’s expected to play this Sunday against the Buccaneers, and I’m here to break down CMC’s fantasy outlook, along with the rest of the Niners’ offense.

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McCaffrey’s Outlook

When healthy, McCaffrey is one of the best (if not the best) fantasy players in all of the NFL. 

A season ago in 16 games played, McCaffrey rushed for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns on 272 carries - that’s a 5.4-yard average. As a pass catcher, he added 564 yards and seven scores on 67 grabs and 83 targets.

In PPR leagues, McCaffrey scored in double figures every game last season. He was over 20 points on 12 occasions. CMC had three games over 30 points, including two over 40. In other words, he’s a fantasy stud.

Coming off a pretty serious injury though, many are wondering what kind of workload he can take on, or even if he’s the same explosive player as before. The reports are that he’s looked good in practice, but we’ll need to see things in a game to be fully convinced.

I don’t expect him to be given his old workhorse role right away, but instead to be eased into things as the weeks go by. Jordan Mason has proven to be more than capable of leading the backfield, and that should allow the Niners to play things carefully with CMC.

McCaffrey’s first game against the Bucs is a really favorable matchup on paper. Tampa Bay gives up 26 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. In the week 10 projections, McCaffrey is set for a whopping 19 PPR fantasy points. Mason is only at five points.

I’m usually in line with the projections, but think the workload and fantasy points are pretty evenly split between the two San Fran backs. I didn’t wait 10 weeks to sit McCaffrey, so he’ll be in my lineup, and in the favorable defensive matchup, I also like Mason as a potential flex-level starting option. 

Other Niners’ Outlooks

With McCaffrey back, that’s just one more player for defenses to worry about, and should open the Niners’ offense up.

Tampa Bay struggles to slow opposing quarterbacks, allowing 23 fantasy points per game, so Brock Purdy is one of my favorite fantasy QBs for the week. 

The Niners might lean on the ground game a bit more than they have to start the season, but with the favorable matchup, I think Purdy goes off for a big fantasy day. I’d start him over a lot of quarterbacks, and did just that in my weekly QB start decision story. 

The Bucs also struggle to slow opposing wideouts, giving up 36 points per week.

Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings and Chris Conley are all on the injury report heading into the week 10 matchup, so their statuses will need to be monitored. Ricky Pearsall, Ronnie Bell and Jacob Cowing are the other wideouts on the active roster currently.

Samuel is projected for 15 PPR fantasy points, and should be in most fantasy starting lineups as long as he isn’t going to be limited. His upside as the team’s most proven wideout is too good to have him sitting on your bench, unless your wide receiver room is absolutely stacked.

Jennings is projected for eight PPR points. If he’s cleared and has no restrictions, I also like him as a starting option. He’s a flex-level option in standard leagues, but much better option for deeper leagues.

Pearsall is projected for seven PPR points. If Samuel or Jennings are out, Pearsall should get some standard league starts, but would be a better deep-league option. If the top-two guys play, I’d still consider Pearsall in deeper leagues.

Conley, Bell and Cowing are super deep-league starting options in the favorable matchup, but ones who aren’t likely to do much unless Samuel or Jennings are out. I’d take the final three receivers in order of how I have them listed to start this paragraph.

George Kittle is the team’s tight end, and one of the best fantasy options in the game. He’s off the injury report and ready to go for week 10.

Kittle is a must-start fantasy player, and that doesn’t change with CMC back in the mix. 

Tampa Bay allows 16 fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and there’s a chance Kittle is the Niners’ top pass catcher in this game. Don’t overthink things and get Kittle in those lineups no matter what.

Start/Sit Decisions Involving McCaffrey

Before we part ways, let’s pit McCaffrey against a few other running backs in start/sit decisions. He’s up against Kareem Hunt on the FantasySP start/sit tool in the trending decisions section, and Hunt goes up against Najee Harris and David Montgomery in other decisions, so let’s add those guys into the mix.

I’ll start by saying I’d do what I could to get all four backs into starting slots for this week. 

Hunt is projected for 18 PPR fantasy points in a pretty average matchup against the Broncos. I like Hunt slightly more than CMC this week, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if McCaffrey outperformed him.

Harris takes on the Commanders and is projected for 14 PPR fantasy points in what’s a slightly below-average matchup. I like CMC a bit more this week, but again it’s very close and could be decided by a couple yards or who scores/doesn’t.

Montgomery is projected for 13 fantasy points in a very tough matchup against the Texans. I again like CMC more, but I still think Montmgery is going to deliver a solid fantasy score worthy of starting him.

I wouldn’t be surprised if McCaffrey shows up in more trending decisions over the weekend, and in more cases than not, I am going to like CMC. A lot of that has to do with his favorable matchup ahead.

The true workhorse backs (Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara) are some of the few that I’d want over McCaffrey. Other backs who handle a good majority of their team’s backfield touches in favorable matchups are also probably better starting options, but I’d still do what I could to get CMC in my starting lineups.

The only real questions regarding start/sit decisions involving McCaffrey should come in extremely shallow leagues. In standard setups, I’m starting McCaffrey, and obviously that’d be true the deeper a league gets. 

We’ve waited long enough to see McCaffrey play, and you’ve waited too long to not play him. It’s a favorable matchup, which makes it reasonable to start CMC right away, and hopefully his usage only continues to grow from here.