Fantasy Football Week 4 Quarterback Start/Sit: Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardson and More

I wrote last week about how bad quarterbacks had been through two weeks of the season. Compared to the past decade, passing stats were noticeably lower while rushing stats were up. Maybe it means something, and maybe it’s just a blip, but it ran counter to the trends of the modern NFL.

Week 3 followed a similar pattern, but things at least ticked up a little. We are about to get into bye weeks, so if quarterback production stays down, streaming is going to be a big part of successful fantasy management as we try to mine points from coal.

Let’s look at three quarterbacks to start and three to consider sitting in Week 4. This will ignore the obvious choices, like starting Lamar Jackson and sitting Will Levis, and focus more on the questionable players whose fantasy value changes week to week.

I used our FantasySP defensive rankings to help determine which teams have been good and bad against quarterbacks through three weeks.

Start

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Philly’s numbers don’t look so bad after Week 3: They held Derek Carr to just 142 yards on 5.7 yards per attempt after he looked like the best QB in football through two weeks. It was always likely Carr would regress, but it was a surprise that it came against the seemingly vulnerable Eagles.

Philadelphia has struggled to stop the pass since last season, including in the playoffs, when they allowed Mayfield to go off for 337 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. That’s been the trend against Philly’s defense; I trust those long-term numbers rather than one game against a career middling player like Carr.

Baker had his worst game of the season in Week 3, averaging less than five yards per attempt after being close to 10 in both Week 1 and Week 2. Mayfield has had inconsistencies of his own during his career, but that’s also a reason to believe he can bounce back: this isn’t the first time he’s had a major dip in play.

He will hopefully have right tackle Luke Goedeke back from injury after the lineman missed Week 3 with a concussion, and Mayfield still has his top receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, in place. Mayfield has the upside of a top-10 fantasy quarterback this week.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders had the worst pass defense in the league last season and haven’t been much better through three weeks, having allowed the third-most passing yards and fourth-most yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow threw for 324 yards on 8.5 yards per attempt Monday night. It’s nothing to be ashamed of to allow Burrow to have a big day, but Washington let Daniel Jones have a little success in Week 2 as well, when he finished with 18 fantasy points as QB6.

An explosive quarterback like Murray is set up for a big week against this pass defense. Murray was near QB15 in both Weeks 1 and 3, decent outputs; he had a QB1 performance in Week 2, though, scoring about four more points than the next highest quarterback.

Murray has run for 45 yards or more every week. Burrow only ran for four yards against Washington, but Mayfield and Jones combined for over 50 rushing yards in the first two weeks.

Murray is set up for a big volume day. He has made a connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. after an anonymous Week 1, and Murray is as dynamic as any player in football. He’s a top-10 fantasy QB this week.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have allowed the most yards per pass attempt by almost an entire yard over any other team. A week after allowing Kyler Murray to throw for 266 yards and three touchdowns on only 21 pass attempts, LA saw Brock Purdy go for 292 and three TDs of his own on 30 attempts.

Tre'Davious White is starting on one side and stands out for getting beat every week. He’s far from his Pro Bowl heights. There are first- and second-year players littering the defense, and while they may be good pros eventually, young players often go through growing pains. This team is vulnerable to the pass right now.

To say Williams has had growing pains of his own would be an understatement. He has improved his completion percentage, passing yards and yards per attempt in each game, so he’s moving the right direction.

Week 3 was a big volume game, as Williams threw 52 passes for 363 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Given the matchup, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have another big game and top-10 fantasy finish.

Sit

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have kept every opponent under 20 points. They have been giving up some passing yards, but part of that is their domination, winning two games by more than 20 points and forcing their opponents to throw; New Orleans is average in yards per attempt allowed.

The Saints are in the top five in defensive DVOA, a measure of how successful teams are on a play-to-play basis. It’s not a surprise they rank so high, since they have been holding their opponents to low point totals, but it proves that New Orleans is standing out in an advanced stat, not just superficially due to randomness.

Cousins has been fine, completing two-thirds of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and three interceptions. That’s just as average as it gets, which is a good way to describe Cousins. His fantasy value is often tied to the skill level of his opponent.

Cousins has been averaging about 208 yards per game with 1.3 touchdowns and one interception; that’s worth 12 fantasy points. With a little bit tougher matchup and a player who has been middling at best, Cousins is a guy who looks better on your bench than in your lineup in Week 4.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

After he seemed to finally be breaking out in 2022, Lawrence regressed a bit in 2023 and has looked downright bad in 2024. He’s completing less than 53% of his passes at 6.3 yards per attempt; both of those numbers are significantly lower than either of the past two seasons.

This is the first time I’ve ever worried about Lawrence. He was called underwhelming despite putting up better-than-average numbers because he wasn’t an immediate superstar winning Super Bowls. Now he’s well below average through three weeks and surely scaring Jacksonville after they just signed him to a mega extension.

It’s tough to expect Lawrence or the Jaguars to play well against almost anyone. They look bad when on the field, not ever consistently putting together successful drives.

Houston is in the top 12 in passing yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed. They are fourth in sacks and tied for seventh in interceptions. This defense began finding success last year and has continued that play into 2024.

With a struggling team and quarterback against a good defense, the odds are against Lawrence having a good Week 4.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Richardson is a high-ceiling, boom-or-bust player. He was QB4 in Week 1, supplementing a few big passes with 56 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Things have been tougher over the past two weeks, when Richardson combined for 61 rushing yards and was QB29.

Richardson’s passing has been sub-par. He’s completing less than 50% of his passes. A few explosive plays have made things look a little better, but Richardson isn’t helping himself or his team often when throwing the football.

A top defense with stars at each level is likely well positioned to stop a struggling quarterback. Pittsburgh’s defense is a little tough to get a read on because of the quality of their opponents: the Falcons, Broncos and Chargers.

Part of those squads having rough starts is due to Pittsburgh’s D, but none of them are exactly projected to be top offenses, even with Cousins in town. We will have to see them against a higher class of offensive opponent before we know how good the Steelers really are on defense.

Richardson is in position to have another low-scoring game in Week 4. His rushing ability always gives him a high ceiling, but the way things have gone point toward a slow day for the young Indianapolis quarterback.