The Fall of Zack Moss: How Jonathan Taylor Returned to Fantasy Football Relevancy

Zack Moss deserves better. He really does. As Jonathan Taylor was out the first four games with injury (and angling for a new contract), Moss started for the Colts in Weeks 2-4 and averaged 107.3 total yards per game, racking up 280 rushing yards.

Taylor returned in Week 5 with just six carries, while Moss led the way with 165 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. Beginning in Week 6, every game has been either an even split in touches between the two backs or in Taylor’s favor. Taylor has out-produced Moss in all five of those games.

The last two games are the most concerning and might signal the official end of fantasy relevancy for Moss. As Taylor touched the ball 23 times in Week 9 and 24 times in Week 10, Moss had seven carries in Week 9 and just one carry for two yards Sunday against the Patriots (while not catching a pass in either game).

(A quick aside: this is a fantasy article, and I’m not analyzing real football decisions, but this is another piece of evidence that paying a running back big money is not a good use of resources. Moss is making just over a million dollars in the last year of his rookie contract and performed better early in the season than Taylor has for any stretch in 2023. Teams can find comparable production for a fraction of the value.)

The Bye Week

The Colts are off in Week 11 after playing in Germany. There are often stories of teams making changes during the bye or adjusting their offense/defense, and it seems like the Colts are ready to turn things over almost entirely to Taylor.

Here are their touches in each game they’ve played together this year. We already talked about it above, but it’s more impactful to see it side-by-side:

It looks like Indianapolis didn’t need the bye week to make a change; it’s already done. Taylor hasn’t been efficient in most games, but the team keeps upping his touches (with a one-week dip in Week 8).

Taylor had 96% of the team’s RB touches in Week 10 and played 88% of the snaps; Moss played 16% of the Colts’ snaps and handled the other 4% of the touches. Either Moss got into some bad Kaesespatzle, or the offense has been turned over to the newly-paid star.

Will This Continue?

I think so. Last week, I looked at players who would bounce back in the second half of the season and others who would fall off after strong first halves. Moss was my pick for the running back most likely to decline, and it was all about the touch share.

That was before the Week 10 domination by Taylor. Now? I feel even stronger about that pick (it feels good to get one right) and feel reinforced on a few of my ideas from that article.

One was related to each player’s contract. Moss, again, is in the last year of his contract on a small salary and will probably be leaving in free agency. Taylor signed a three-year extension just as he returned from the IR, a contract that guarantees him over $25 million.

Indianapolis has more to gain from letting the team develop with Taylor on the field than by feeding Moss the ball, especially if the team falls out of the playoff race. They may wish to save some runs on Taylor’s body as the season goes on, opening a few opportunities for Moss, but that’s hard to predict.

It’s better to go off what we’ve seen, which is the team phasing Moss out of the gameplan as Taylor dominates the offense. Week 12 may be the most revealing game in terms of the rest of each back’s 2023 season.

If Taylor again is featured significantly more than Moss coming out of the bye, that is likely to be the case the rest of the season. If, however, Moss gets closer to an even split, it could mean the coaches tried to include him more after an anonymous showing, marking a positive for Moss.

Advice for Moss Owners

As I just said, Week 12 will probably show us what the touch share looks like the rest of the season. I’m betting that it will continue in Taylor’s favor.

If that’s the case, Taylor is an RB2 and weekly starter due to his volume and ability to catch the ball. Moss is a little harder to evaluate in that situation. He would not be start-able in fantasy, but he would be a high-level handcuff.

That’s a great player to keep deep on your bench, but not everyone has that luxury. If you have a strong starting line and don’t need every roster spot, Moss would be a player to keep in case Taylor were to get hurt again.

Taylor was durable his first two years, missing just one game during his rookie season, but he missed six games last year and the first four this season. He might be back to normal health and ready to roll for the rest of the season, but injuries tend to linger and add up.

Taylor is a player to covet as a running back who will touch the ball a lot, and the status for Moss depends a lot on Taylor’s health. Moss is a bench player right now who could step in as an immediate impact player if the top back goes down.