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Merrill Kelly or Connor Prielipp

Who Should I Start? - Week 16 • Start New
Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly

SPArizona Diamondbacks ARI
Connor Prielipp

Connor Prielipp

SPMinnesota Twins MIN
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Kelly over Prielipp

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Merrill Kelly

Struggles continue for the veteran right-hander despite his key role in the rotation.

Kelly has struggled significantly of late, posting a 7.30 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP over his last two outings. The third-place Diamondbacks are fighting to stay above .500, but Kelly’s recent form has been a hurdle for the club. He remains a fixture as the number two starter in a rotation currently missing Michael Soroka and Ryne Nelson due to long-term injuries.

While his current 5.80 ERA for the season is discouraging, our data projects a rebound toward a 3.98 ERA for the rest of the year. His career history, including a strong 2025 campaign, suggests that his current 1.54 WHIP is likely to normalize, though a career-low strikeout rate of 5.32 per nine innings suggests his days as a high-upside fantasy asset may be fading.

Kelly is in the midst of a two-start week, having already taken a loss against St. Louis on June 22nd. He closes the week on June 28th against the Rays, facing Drew Rasmussen and his elite 2.62 ERA. Given the difficult matchup and his ongoing struggles with command and hit prevention, it is best to keep him on the bench for now. Verdict: Sit.

Updated 1 day ago

Latest News Merrill Kelly
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Prielipp over Kelly

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Connor Prielipp

Prielipp battles consistency issues as the Twins manage the rookie's high-upside arm

Prielipp has experienced significant growing pains lately, posting a 5.25 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP over his last 12 innings of work. The third-place Twins, currently enduring a three-game losing streak, are keeping a close eye on the rookie's workload to preserve his long-term health following his early-season debut. He currently slots in as a mid-rotation staple for Minnesota, though his command has wavered with five walks issued across his last two starts.

Under the hood, his 6.53 ERA over the last 30 days is a far cry from his 4.26 season projection, suggesting some positive regression is likely. The left-hander continues to flash impressive strikeout stuff, maintaining a career rate of nearly 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. However, until he improves on his 1.43 career WHIP and limits the high volume of hits allowed, he will remain a volatile fantasy asset driven primarily by his strikeout upside.

The week ahead features a single remaining start this Sunday at home against the Rockies. Prielipp draws a favorable matchup against Ryan Feltner, who has struggled to find consistency this season. While the rookie's recent ratios are a concern, the Rockies' lineup provides a soft landing spot for him to get back on track and provide a boost in the strikeout category. Verdict: Start.

Updated 1 day ago

Latest News Connor Prielipp
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Performance Merrill Kelly
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
4.500-100231.671
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
7.300-200641.982
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Connor Prielipp
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
nan-nan0
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
4.500-100432.001
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Merrill Kelly
OWN
40%
+0.36 compared to last week
START
27%
+8.82 compared to last week
OWN/START Connor Prielipp
OWN
11%
+3.18 compared to last week
START
 
7%
+3.43 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Merrill Kelly
89th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Connor Prielipp
110th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Merrill Kelly

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 90th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 82nd.
  • The current leader among SP's is Jacob Misiorowski
  • He is putting up better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 116th in WHIP with 1.42
  • Currently ranked 123rd in ERA with 5.24
  • Top 20 in walks and is currently ranked 18th with 24
  • Top 75 in wins and is currently ranked 62nd with 4
  • Top 100 in innings pitched and is currently ranked 93rd with 66.0
  • Decline in numbers lately by 3.2 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: -2, L: +3, WHIP: +0.443, ERA: +2.2, K's: -56, Walks: +5
Breakdown Connor Prielipp

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 110th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 188th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Jacob Misiorowski
  • He is doing dreadful lately. If he is star player then he should rebound.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 137th in WHIP with 1.54
  • Currently ranked 132nd in ERA with 5.45
  • Top 50 in walks and is currently ranked 44th with 20
  • Slight decline in numbers lately at 1.1 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +2, L: +5, WHIP: +1.43, ERA: +5.22, K's: +55, Walks: +23
Next Up Health Check
Injury Merrill Kelly

No Injury Reported

Injury Connor Prielipp

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Merrill Kelly
DateOpponentResult
Jun 22@STLAndre PallanteL 3-2
Jun 23@STLKevin GinkelW 3-4
Jun 24@STLRyan ThompsonW 4-9
Jun 25@STL
Jun 26@TBNick MartinezL 6-1
Jun 27@TBMichael GroveL 4-2
Jun 28@TBDrew Rasmussen
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
4.500-100231.671
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Connor Prielipp
DateOpponentResult
Jun 22VS LADEric LauerL 1-2
Jun 23VS LADJustin WrobleskiL 3-12
Jun 24VS LADShohei OhtaniL 3-4
Jun 26VS COLAndrew MorrisW 9-8
Jun 27VS COLMichael LorenzenL 5-8
Jun 28VS COLRyan Feltner
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
nan-nan0
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Merrill Kelly
7.89
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Connor Prielipp
4.86
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Merrill Kelly
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2019 ARI 32 181.0 2962 158 57 0 13-14 4.48 1.33 7.9 377
2020 ARI 5 31.1 473 29 5 0 3-2 2.59 0.99 8.3 85
2021 ARI 27 158.0 2425 130 41 0 7-11 4.44 1.29 7.4 276
2022 ARI 32 195.0 2988 170 59 0 13-8 3.42 1.14 7.9 450
2023 ARI 34 199.1 3161 215 77 0 15-9 3.3 1.16 9.7 519
2024 ARI 13 73.2 1142 63 19 0 5-1 4.03 1.17 7.7 169
2025 ARI 32 181.2 2833 167 48 0 12-9 3.57 1.13 8.3 430
2026 ARI 13 75.2 1200 44 31 0 5-7 5.71 1.52 5.2 103
ON PACE 25 149 2370 86 61 0 9-13 5.71 1.52 5.2 203
3-YEAR AVG 26 151 2379 148 48 0 11-6 3.5 1.15 8.8 373
Career 188 1088.2 17184 976 337 0 0-0 3.94 1.23 8.1
Career Connor Prielipp
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2026 MIN 11 55.2 980 55 23 0 2-5 5.17 1.42 8.9 86
ON PACE 21 107 1890 106 44 0 3-9 5.17 1.42 8.9 165
3-YEAR AVG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 NAN NAN NAN 0
Career 11 55.2 980 55 23 0 0-0 5.17 1.42 8.9
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RECENT DECISIONS

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Player News

Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI @TB 01:40 EDT EST Merrill Kelly
Drew Rasmussen
ATH @LAA 03:15 EDT EST Aaron Civale
Sam Aldegheri
ATL @SF 04:05 EDT EST Chris Sale
Robbie Ray
BAL vs WAS 01:35 EDT EST Kyle Bradish
Zack Littell
BOS vs NYY 07:20 EDT EST Sonny Gray
Carlos Rodon
CHC @MIL 02:10 EDT EST Ryan Rolison
Brandon Woodruff
CHW vs KC 02:10 EDT EST Anthony Kay
Luinder Avila
CIN @PIT 01:35 EDT EST Brady Singer
Mitch Keller
CLE vs SEA 01:40 EDT EST Gavin Williams
Emerson Hancock
COL @MIN 02:10 EDT EST Ryan Feltner
Connor Prielipp
DET vs HOU 01:40 EDT EST Jack Flaherty
Hunter Brown
LAD @SD 04:10 EDT EST Emmet Sheehan
Michael King
MIA @STL 02:15 EDT EST Tyler Phillips
Kyle Leahy
NYM vs PHI 01:40 EDT EST Cionel Perez
Jesus Luzardo
TEX @TOR 01:37 EDT EST Kumar Rocker
Shane Bieber
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
No games scheduled