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Brandon Sproat or Aaron Nola

Who Should I Start? - Week 16 • Start New
Brandon Sproat

Brandon Sproat

SPMilwaukee Brewers MIL
Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

SPPhiladelphia Phillies PHI
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Sproat over Nola

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Brandon Sproat

Brandon Sproat flashes elite strikeout potential after dominant scoreless outing

The first-place Brewers, currently riding a four-game win streak, have found a spark at the back of their rotation. Sproat is coming off the best start of his career, a dominant six-inning performance where he racked up 10 strikeouts and allowed only a single hit. While he dealt with a minor hamstring cramp earlier in June, he showed no signs of limitation in his most recent turn and remains a healthy, vital piece of the Milwaukee staff according to recent team reports.

Although his 5.69 season ERA and 1.42 WHIP are currently unsightly, his recent underlying metrics suggest a significant breakout is underway. Over his last two starts, he has maintained a stellar 0.54 WHIP and an elite strikeout-per-nine rate, showing much better command than his early-season career stats would indicate. Our data expects positive regression toward a 4.27 ERA for the rest of the year, making his recent surge look like a legitimate step forward rather than a fluke.

Having already completed his scheduled start for the week on June 23, Sproat will spend the upcoming home series against the Cubs on the bench. He is not projected for a second start this week, but his massive fantasy contribution earlier this period has likely already aided managers. Given his current trajectory and high-ceiling arm, he is a priority addition for those needing strikeouts. Verdict: Hold.

Updated 1 day ago

Latest News Brandon Sproat
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Nola over Sproat

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola earns a mid-week win as he looks to stabilize his season ratios.

Aaron Nola earned a victory this past Wednesday against the Nationals, tossing five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts. The second-place Phillies are currently riding a three-game win streak, and Nola has stabilized his spot as the number three starter in the rotation following his paternity leave earlier this month. While he has struggled with a 5.41 ERA over the last 30 days, the recent outing was a step in the right direction for the veteran.

Though Nola's 5.76 season ERA is unsightly, our data anticipates a significant bounce-back toward a 4.15 mark for the rest of the season. His strikeout ability hasn't vanished, as he is still averaging nearly a strikeout per inning. The primary culprit for his struggles is a high 1.50 WHIP, but his track record of high-volume innings and a 1.24 projected WHIP suggest he remains a reliable asset for fantasy managers willing to endure the current ratio volatility.

Having already pitched on June 24th, Nola is finished for the current scoring period and will likely return to the mound early next week. The Phillies continue their road trip against a struggling Mets squad that currently sits fifth in the division. Given Philadelphia’s strong run support and Nola’s strikeout floor, he remains a firm Start in most leagues as he attempts to regain his usual mid-rotation form.

Updated 1 day ago

Latest News Aaron Nola
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Performance Brandon Sproat
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.001-0001000.171
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.911-0001620.542
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Aaron Nola
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.600-000521.001
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.600-0001131.302
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Brandon Sproat
OWN
13%
+6.37 compared to last week
START
 
7%
+2.64 compared to last week
OWN/START Aaron Nola
OWN
49%
+0.53 compared to last week
START
22%
-1.77 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Brandon Sproat
112th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Aaron Nola
111th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Brandon Sproat

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 112th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 101st.
  • The current leader among SP's is Jacob Misiorowski
  • He is doing a better than most people thought he would.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Top 100 in WHIP and is currently ranked 81st
  • Currently ranked 119th in ERA with 5.12
  • Top 50 in walks and is currently ranked 49th with 19
  • Currently ranked 181st in wins with 2
  • His average points in the past two weeks have increased by 4.6 PPG. If you don't have the confidence he can keep it up, then trade him for a sure thing.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +2, L: +4, WHIP: +1.4, ERA: +5.63, K's: +73, Walks: +32
Breakdown Aaron Nola

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 111th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 100th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Jacob Misiorowski
  • He is doing a better than most people thought he would.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 119th in WHIP with 1.43
  • Currently ranked 133rd in ERA with 5.47
  • Top 100 in walks and is currently ranked 90th with 14
  • Currently ranked 161st in wins with 2
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +2, L: -3, WHIP: -0.046, ERA: -0.549, K's: +30, Walks: +11
Next Up Health Check
Injury Brandon Sproat

No Injury Reported

Injury Aaron Nola

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Brandon Sproat
DateOpponentResult
Jun 22@CINTrevor MegillW 1-2
Jun 23@CINBrandon SproatW 0-2
Jun 24@CINChad PatrickW 5-6
Jun 26VS CHCJacob MisiorowskiW 6-2
Jun 27VS CHCDavid PetersonL 2-8
Jun 28VS CHCRyan Rolison
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
2.651-0001530.692
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Aaron Nola
DateOpponentResult
Jun 22@WASFoster GriffinL 4-1
Jun 23@WASOrion KerkeringW 9-14
Jun 24@WASSeth JohnsonW 4-5
Jun 25@WASOrion KerkeringW 5-10
Jun 26@NYMZack WheelerW 1-2
Jun 27@NYMA.J. MinterL 6-2
Jun 28@NYMCionel Perez
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.600-0001131.302
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Brandon Sproat
7.14
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Aaron Nola
9.60
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Brandon Sproat
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2025 NYM 4 20.2 290 17 7 0 0-2 4.79 1.21 7.4 31
2026 MIL 15 67.1 1177 73 32 0 2-4 5.61 1.4 9.8 122
ON PACE 30 136 2383 147 64 0 4-8 5.61 1.4 9.8 247
3-YEAR AVG 4 20 290 17 7 0 0-2 4.79 1.21 7.4 31
Career 19 88.0 1467 90 39 0 0-0 5.42 1.35 9.2
Career Aaron Nola
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2015 PHI 13 77.2 1117 68 19 0 6-2 3.59 1.2 7.9 188
2016 PHI 20 111.0 1796 121 29 0 6-9 4.95 1.32 9.8 263
2017 PHI 27 168.0 2665 184 49 0 12-11 3.54 1.21 9.9 451
2018 PHI 33 210.0 3212 224 58 0 17-6 2.4 0.99 9.6 632
2019 PHI 34 200.0 3332 229 80 0 12-7 3.92 1.28 10.3 500
2020 PHI 11 65.1 1060 84 23 0 5-5 3.44 1.13 11.6 176
2021 PHI 32 182.1 2971 223 39 0 9-9 4.59 1.12 11 427
2022 PHI 35 219.0 3256 246 29 0 12-14 3.45 0.98 10.1 547
2023 PHI 36 212.0 3427 225 49 0 15-10 4.33 1.16 9.6 512
2024 PHI 34 202.0 3275 205 52 0 14-9 3.74 1.22 9.1 496
2025 PHI 18 96.1 1599 100 28 0 5-10 5.89 1.33 9.3 159
2026 PHI 16 78.1 1432 82 27 0 3-4 5.74 1.49 9.4 142
ON PACE 31 153 2794 160 52 0 5-7 5.74 1.49 9.4 276
3-YEAR AVG 29 169 2767 177 43 0 11-10 4.39 1.22 9.4 389
Career 309 1808.0 29142 1991 482 0 0-0 3.99 1.18 9.9
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RECENT DECISIONS

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Player News

Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI @TB 01:40 EDT EST Merrill Kelly
Drew Rasmussen
ATH @LAA 03:15 EDT EST Aaron Civale
Sam Aldegheri
ATL @SF 04:05 EDT EST Chris Sale
Robbie Ray
BAL vs WAS 01:35 EDT EST Kyle Bradish
Zack Littell
BOS vs NYY 07:20 EDT EST Sonny Gray
Carlos Rodon
CHC @MIL 02:10 EDT EST Ryan Rolison
Brandon Woodruff
CHW vs KC 02:10 EDT EST Anthony Kay
Luinder Avila
CIN @PIT 01:35 EDT EST Brady Singer
Mitch Keller
CLE vs SEA 01:40 EDT EST Gavin Williams
Emerson Hancock
COL @MIN 02:10 EDT EST Ryan Feltner
Connor Prielipp
DET vs HOU 01:40 EDT EST Jack Flaherty
Hunter Brown
LAD @SD 04:10 EDT EST Emmet Sheehan
Michael King
MIA @STL 02:15 EDT EST Tyler Phillips
Kyle Leahy
NYM vs PHI 01:40 EDT EST Cionel Perez
Jesus Luzardo
TEX @TOR 01:37 EDT EST Kumar Rocker
Shane Bieber
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
No games scheduled