Fantasy Hockey Bounceback Candidates: Jason Robertson, Elias Pettersson and More
Shelmo discusses some bounceback candidates who based on atypical performances last year should be due for an uptick in production.
Hey folks! Today, we are going to break down a few notable players who, based on last season's performances, have dropped in expected performance and ADP that you could hedge bets on.
You have the potential to steal value in your draft out of these players based on their decreased value and dropped ADP by waiting to pick them up but putting them on your target list and snagging them before your opponents. At worst, all five of these players should have a similar production rate matching last year's numbers, but the ceiling here is sky high.
Move them up a round or two each, depending on the player and the makeup of your roster and endure the chirps you may get heading into playoffs as these selections out perform a temporarily lowered expectation.
Make sure to check out our Fantasy Hockey Average Draft Position (ADP) tool. You can select the amount of teams in your league, number of rounds, your pick position, and even select keepers. Do a mock draft, and be ready for your draft!
Jason Robertson - Dallas Stars
Two years in a row, Robo has put up 80 points, following a 109-point effort in 2023. We know he has it in him to put up 100, and I know he has done it only once; however, last season you could physically see him struggling on the ice to produce offense.
The Stars as a whole for the first half of the campaign seemed to be a step behind, and Robertson, along with the rest of the roster, seemed to pick it up leading into the postseason.
If Robertson can start off at a steady pace, he could easily put up 100+ again and it is only a matter of when, not if. Based on the tail end of last season, I think this is going to be the year he heats back up!
Robertson had 35 goals, 45 assists, and 19 powerplay points in 82 games played as a forward. He also had 211 shots on goal, 59 hits, and 45 blocked shots.
Elias Pettersson - Vancouver Canucks
The Drama between Pettersson and former Canuck, now Ranger, J.T. Miller is over. The Canucks made their decision and have put their eggs in Pettersson's basket.
It was extremely evident that there was tension in the locker room between these two superstars, and it clearly impacted Pettersson's ability to produce offense, as well as his visual passion for the game.
With a new season upon him, his hockey club, and the locker room as whole, I think it is likely that Pettersson starts this new season with a clean slate and gets back to being the phenom he has been known as since Mats Sundin picked this fellow super Swede to be the franchise forward shortly after his being drafted by Vancouver.
Pettersson had 15 goals, 30 assists, and 16 powerplay points in 64 games played as a forward. He also had 109 shots on goal, 73 hits, and 77 blocked shots.
Adam Fox - New York Rangers
Continuing the theme of locker room drama, this was rampant in New York last year for the Rangers. After having their franchise and fanbase shaken by their captain Jacob Trouba being shipped to California, and the circumstances surrounding his departure, it seemed like the President's Trophy roster crumpled and appeared to be a shell of their former powerhouse style.
While I selected Fox for this list, this could be several of the Rangers' elite talents. Fox did decline quite a bit and went from being considered a top-three defenseman in the league to barely hanging on to a top 10. While that may not seem like a large drop, he is nearly out of the top-100 players, which is a far cry for being a perennial James Norris Memorial Trophy nominee and undroppable defender in ESPN leagues.
Fox had 10 goals, 51 assists, and 18 powerplay points in 74 games played as a defenseman. He also had 135 shots on goal, 40 hits, and 108 blocked shots.
Morgan Rielly - Toronto Maple Leafs
The seeds of doubt on the most-tenured Maple Leaf started to grow last year. He has spent his entire career without a suitable, or compatible, defenseman partner who could keep up and mesh with his offensive ability. At what point do you start to think maybe Rielly is the problem, and not his lack of an elite partner?
These seeds grew so much last year that the Maple Leaf's struggling powerplay saw it move to a five forward setup, cutting out a huge part of Rielly's deployment.
With Mitch Marner leaving Toronto, it is unquestionable that Rielly will solidify his place as the quarterback of their top powerplay unit again, which will see both his production and deployment take an uptick.
Rielly is also said to have a great offseason spent at the rink and in the gym with little off time as he had some very frank conversations about his play and lack of production last season. I expect Rielly to well out perform his ADP this season.
Rielly had seven goals, 34 assists, and 14 powerplay points in 82 games played as a defenseman. He also had 126 shots on goal, 21 hits, and 131 blocked shots.
Zach Hyman - Edmonton Oilers
Any player who goes from being drafted by his hometown, then goes from playing on the wing of Auston Matthews to Connor McDavid is clearly winning in life, and in hockey.
This children's book author is the typical grinder prototype from the 1990's and 2000's who is on the wing and will do all the hard minutes in the corner getting the puck for the superstar and getting all the benefits of being on the top line, with the best players, on the best powerplay units.
While Hyman was getting points for just being on the ice with these franchise players, he also started to prove he could bury the puck and was an elite level playmaker, too. Coupled with his willingness to play those tough minutes and go into the corners against the best players in the world, it solidified his place as a top line guy.
However last year, along with several Oilers, he struggled to get out of the gate. He was a ghost for the first half of the season, and even saw himself being dropped in some fantasy leagues. Yes, he was that bad. He did pick it up, but his point totals were cut in half from his average, and owners started to panic that his 50-goal effort the year previous was a fluke.
Repeatable or not, Hyman sees his ADP at an all time low this season but people seem to forget he is still going to be McDavid's winger, and on the Oilers' top powerplay unit.
The chance of an ice cold start for a second consecutive year is quite unlikely. Take advantage and get Hyman on your team before anyone else noticed how far down the list he has fallen.
Hyman had 27 goals, 17 assists, and 12 powerplay points in 73 games played as a forward. He also had 210 shots on goal, 58 hits, and 24 blocked shots.