Super Bowl Betting: Seahawks-Patriots Prop Bets and MVP Predictions
The experts at FantasySP answer five questions related to Super Bowl bets as we near the week of the big game.
Once we pass Conference Championship weekend, the NFL season is essentially over. There are still two weeks on the calendar after that point, but with only one game remaining, there is only so much we can talk about.
That doesn't stop the media train, though, as there are hours to fill and hot takes to spew. It will all be rendered moot once the game starts, but until that time, we can continue counting down and giving our best guesses as to what will happen.
The experts at FantasySP wanted to share their views on a game-adjacent topic: Super Bowl bets. Morgan Rode and Daniel Hepner answered five questions related to wagers on the big game as we brave our first weekend without football.
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Which player is your favorite to go over their yardage total in the Super Bowl?
Morgan: I like Kenneth Walker to go over his total yardage total. I see him at 76.5 rushing yards, 24.5 receiving yards, and 105.5 total yards. I think Walker could surpass each yardage mark as the workhorse back for the Seahawks.
Daniel: Drake Maye over 36.5 rushing yards. While New England undoubtedly had an easy schedule this season, they will play four of the best defenses in football during their playoff run: Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and Seahawks. Maye ran for 66, 10, and 65 yards in his three postseason games thus far, and it's likely he will have to do plenty of work in the Super Bowl to move the ball against the Seahawks. When things aren't flowing in the passing game, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Maye pull down the ball and run again.
How about your best anytime touchdown bet?
Morgan: I'll say Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He's easily the best pass catcher in this game, and I think he eventually finds the end zone for the Seahawks. Walker is another good pick, but JSN's odds are a bit better (Smith-Njigba is -110 and Walker -185 according to FanDuel).
Daniel: Stefon Diggs leads the Patriots with 17 targets in the playoffs, but Kayshon Boutte is second with 15. Boutte also leads the team in receiving yards and is one of four players to catch a touchdown, and his odds of +320 to score return more than Diggs (+250), four total Patriots, and eight total players.
What is your favorite novelty prop bet?
Morgan: Why not start the fun early and put a couple bucks down on the coin flip. Your odds don't get much better than 50/50. Tails never fails, by the way.
Daniel: Rather than giving you one to bet, I'll give you a sect of props to avoid and why: Don't bet on anything related to commercials. Super Bowl commercials are fun for about the first quarter before most people start losing focus. If you are focused on commercials, it will take away from the game, so do yourself a favor and avoid bets on anything related to the ads if you want to actually watch football.
Are you leaning one way on either the game line or point total?
Morgan: I like the Seahawks to win and cover the 4.5-point spread. I'd also take the over by a couple points, with the total at 45.5 right now.
Daniel: The line and spread point to something like a 24-20 win for the Seahawks. That's a reasonable baseline, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the total come in under 40 points. I mentioned above that New England has faced a murderer's row of defenses, and the Patriots are no slouches themselves, allowing the fourth-fewest points this season and just 26 total points in their three playoff games (though there are a few mitigating circumstances related to that). This could be a defensive struggle.
Who is your favorite bet for MVP?
Morgan: With Seattle winning, I have a Seahawk taking home the MVP honor as well. I like the odds for Smith-Njigba or Walker to win it, with Walker offering the better return. You could win really big if you take a guy like Rashid Shaheed or Cooper Kupp to take the award.
Daniel: I laid out my expectation for a low-scoring game above, so there could be money to be made with a defensive MVP in this year's big game. If the Patriots can pull off the upset in a game without many points, their defensive stars are on MVP watch; K'Lavon Chaisson was second on the team with 7.5 sacks and leads New England with three more in the postseason. Chaisson is +22500 to win MVP, meaning a $1 bet would bring you back $225.
