Fantasy Football Week 16 Tight End Who Should I Start? Darren Waller, Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, and More

Darren Waller returned after a year in retirement to join the Miami Dolphins this season, an interesting story until Philip Rivers came back after five years away and overshadowed him.

Waller has only played seven games, missing the first three and then four in the middle of the season. His constant presence likely would have helped Miami's struggling offense, but they are more than a tight end away; it has been a disappointing season for the Dolphins.

The newest development has starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the bench and seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers taking over under center. Despite Waller being productive when on the field, Ewers' presence drops the tight end's floor considerably.

That has fantasy owners questioning whether Waller is a worthy fantasy player this week, and he is showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.

Let's look at Waller and three tight ends who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.

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Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Waller suffered a pectoral injury in Week 7, playing just 16 snaps against the Browns and not catching a pass. In his other six games, Waller averaged 3.3 receptions, 40.5 yards, and one touchdown per game. That's around 10 standard points and 13 PPR points per game.

The expected step down from Tagovailoa to Ewers is a real concern, particularly in the fantasy playoffs. It would be a different story in Week 5, but do you really want to trust a seventh rounder while you're in the semifinals? Ewers had first-round buzz early in his college career, but there's a reason he eventually fell to the seventh.

There's one more monkey wrench: Waller has the best matchup that maybe any player could have against any team from a fantasy perspective. The Bengals have allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt and by far the most fantasy points to tight ends, letting the position average more than seven catches, 90 yards, and one touchdown per game.

Even with Ewers in the lineup, Waller still has a positive outlook this week. There is a low floor, and you shouldn't start him over a weekly starter with a decent outlook, but Waller is worth consideration in Week 16.

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans

This might be my toughest call of the entire week. Here's how it breaks down: Bowers is the superior player, but he faces maybe the best defense in football in this game. Last week against another strong D in Philadelphia, the Raiders were shut out 31-0, and Bowers had six receptions for just 28 yards.

That also came with Kenny Pickett under center, who threw for 64 yards on 2.6 per attempt. Those are abysmal numbers; he lost 35 yards on sacks, leaving just 29 positive net yards in the passing game. Geno Smith returns here, giving the offense a much better floor, but there is a little risk that Smith could aggravate an injury, especially with the team sure to be extra cautious since they are near the bottom of the standings.

The Texans have allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They were gashed by Trey McBride last week for 12 receptions, 134 yards, and two touchdowns, but that was a game that Houston led within the first minute and had a double-digit lead for the final 57 minutes; Arizona was in garbage time the entire game.

Houston is more likely to clamp down on the Raiders, though there could be a lot of garbage time again. The major issue here, though, is that benching Bowers for Waller could be a complete disaster if the star TE simply does his thing with his top quarterback in the lineup.

Advice: Start Brock Bowers over Darren Waller. It's enticing to lean toward Waller given his far superior matchup, but there are just too many questions right now in Miami's offense, and Bowers is the safer option despite the tougher opponent.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers

It has been all about volume for Ferguson this season. His 94 targets are just eight shy of his career high, and he has already set a new best with 77 receptions. Ferguson is averaging a career-low 7.4 yards per reception, though, a yard less than any other season and 1.4 yards below his career rate.

Ferguson is averaging 40.7 yards per game, on pace for 692. That would be the second most of his career, so it's not like he's bereft of yardage, but Ferguson is picking it up slower than about anyone else near his volume. He has gotten into the end zone seven times, helping him to a top-seven TE standing in both standard and PPR.

The matchup is tougher this week, as the Chargers have given up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The position has averaged 4.4 catches and 45.3 yards per game with just six touchdowns in 14 contests.

Advice: Start Darren Waller over Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is likely to pick up low-efficiency volume because that's what he has done all season, but there's a low ceiling here unless he finds the end zone. While we could say the same about Waller, I'm going to trust the much better matchup here.

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers

Here, we have another guy left in the wilderness without his starting quarterback. Daniel Jones went down two weeks ago, and Rivers came off the rocking chair and into the starting lineup, looking overmatched against a very good Seattle pass defense. Warren had just three catches for 19 yards, as the Colts worked to get short passes out of Rivers' hands quickly.

San Francisco isn't as strong as a pass D, sitting near the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points per game given up to tight ends. The 49ers are dealing with a ton of injuries but keep fighting, putting up a respectable performance defensively.

Warren has been great, and he'll be drafted as a top-five tight end next season, but I have a hard time trusting Rivers and this offense. The quarterback will likely get better after another week of practice, but I need to see success before I believe it.

Advice: Start Darren Waller over Tyler Warren, though this is a really close matchup. Like with Bowers, we could say that Warren is the safer player, but with Rivers in the lineup, that floor drops considerably, so I prefer the upside of Waller.