Fantasy Football Week 13 Late-Game Quarterback Who Should I Start? Jaxson Dart, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and More
Comparing Jaxson Dart to four quarterbacks playing in the late/night games who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Jaxson Dart has missed the past two games with a concussion, but he returns for Monday Night Football this week against the New England Patriots. Dart didn't take over until Week 4, but he has been a fantastic fantasy player when on the field, becoming something close to a must-start guy.
Since he was barely drafted in any fantasy leagues, most owners who have Dart also have at least one other functional quarterback, so it brings questions as to whether owners should be cautious upon the rookie's return or just throw him in. Because of that, Dart has been showing up often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at Dart and four other quarterbacks playing in the late/night games that he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Jaxson Dart, New York Giants @ New England Patriots
From Weeks 4 through 10 (the games Dart started), he ranked as fantasy QB1 and had the third-most fantasy points per game in that stretch. Most of his passing numbers are slightly below average, but Dart has been phenomenal running the ball.
He is averaging over 45 rushing yards per game with seven touchdowns in seven contests, scoring in six of those games. He also topped 50 yards in five of the seven, showing consistency that should keep his floor relatively high.
New England is allowing the 12th-fewest yards per pass attempt and the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks; it's fair to call them a middling matchup (at best). QBs haven't done much running against the Patriots, but that is a product of the schedule as much as anything, as they have only faced a few guys who really run. Josh Allen and Justin Fields both topped 50 yards against the Pats, so I'm holding out hope for Dart as well.
There's always risk with a rookie, but Dart has performed so well that it's hard to doubt him in fantasy. Especially in a game in which the Giants could be trailing often (New England is 10-2), Dart is likely to put up some numbers and accumulate fantasy points.
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
Darnold is having his best season, even eclipsing last year with Minnesota. He is on pace to see a small drop in yards and touchdowns, but Darnold is averaging a league-leading 9.4 yards per pass attempt, a phenomenal number. Going back through 2020, Brock Purdy in 2023 is the only player with at least 100 pass attempts to have a better per-attempt number than Darnold's current mark.
He gets a chance to go against his old compadres here, and I'm sure Vikings fans are dreading seeing their old passer given his plaudits so far. Minnesota is allowing the ninth-most yards per pass attempt but the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs.
That better fantasy performance is from a lack of volume, as teams are averaging just 202.5 passing yards per game but have 14 touchdowns to five interceptions. Quarterbacks don't run much against the Vikings, but that won't affect Darnold, who doesn't use his legs often.
Advice: This is a tough one. Darnold has been great, but he is a fringe fantasy starter because he never runs the ball; he's a better real-life player. I'm not doubting the Seattle passer and think he's a good option this week, but I have to recommend that you start Jaxson Dart over Sam Darnold.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Herbert has been finding big volume most of the season but with only average efficiency. That's OK, as it's harder to be efficient the more you throw, but Herbert's raw numbers look better than his per-game stats, something that matters when we're looking at guys who are all good fantasy players.
The Raiders seem like a team that would be a strong target given their struggles, but those have surprisingly come more on the offensive side of the ball, as Vegas has allowed the 12th-most yards per pass attempt and sits right in the middle in fantasy points allowed to QBs. When these teams played back in Week 2, Herbert had 242 passing yards on 9.0 per attempt with two touchdowns and 31 rushing yards.
Advice: Start Jaxson Dart over Justin Herbert. This is a tough one, and I really like Herbert's outlook as well, but Dart has just been a different type of fantasy player, and I prefer him here.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Opposing Dart is Maye, who is in the top five in passing yards, yards per pass attempt, and passing touchdowns. Maye also does plenty with his legs, averaging 25.6 rushing yards per game with two more scores.
The Giants are slightly better than average in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. Some of that is through volume, as teams are averaging over 240 passing yards per game against New York, and the Giants have also given up 21 passing touchdowns with just five interceptions.
QBs have also found room to run, averaging 25.2 rushing yards per game with four touchdowns, something that points in Maye's favor.
Advice: This is really tough. Maye has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks all season, ranking as QB2 heading into Week 13 and sixth in fantasy points per game among guys with at least three appearances. Because of his sustained success, I'll say to start Drake Maye over Jaxson Dart, but this one is super close.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders
Nix has maybe the best quarterback matchup of the week, as the Commanders have allowed the most yards per pass attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Washington is weak defensively in every aspect, leaving them as maybe THE team to target each week.
Nix is a little below average throwing the ball, but his running still makes him at least an average real-life and fantasy quarterback. He ranked as QB10 entering the week, leaving him as a good starter but a guy who should be considered with the matchups, not automatically started.
Advice: Start Bo Nix over Jaxson Dart. Just given the players, it would be tough to choose between the two, but with Nix having a big advantage in the matchup department, I'll recommend starting the Denver quarterback today.
