Fantasy Football Week 2 Running Back Start/Sit Decisions: Dylan Sampson, Kenneth Walker, and More
Comparing Dylan Sampson to three running backs who have been matched up against him most in FantasySP's Who Should I Start? tool.
Cleveland Browns rookie running back Dylan Sampson is showing up a lot on our FantasySP Who Should I Start? tool. On Saturdays and Sundays, we get a good feeling for which players owners are questioning most by simply looking at the players often popping up on that start/sit tool.
Sampson was heavily involved in Week 1 but was inefficient and might have another rookie coming to take most of his snaps, making it questionable how much we should trust him. Uncertainty like that is usually what drives players to hit our tool often.
Let's look at Sampson compared to three running backs he has been matched up with most on the start/sit tool: David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, and Kenneth Walker.
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Dylan Sampson, Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Sampson carried the ball 12 times for 29 yards in Week 1, while Jerome Ford had just six carries for eight yards; it was a terribly inefficient day on the ground. Sampson really made up for it in the passing game, hauling in eight receptions for 64 yards, a PPR boon.
If he were the unquestioned top guy, Sampson would have obvious fantasy value. The problem is that he might be splitting carries with a fellow rookie, second-round pick Quinshon Judkins, as early as this week. Reports say Judkins will be a backup this week and ramp up his usage, but it brings down Sampson's value just the same.
The matchup also isn't a great one. Last season, Baltimore allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt. In Week 1, they held James Cook to just 44 yards on 13 carries (3.4 yards per attempt). He did catch five passes, something that could benefit Sampson again if he gets involved in the passing game.
I'm skeptical of big things here. Sampson is enticing because it sounds like he will still get the most carries, but if he struggles to move the ball again, Judkins could get more work. With a tougher matchup, that's enough to make me want to look elsewhere.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Montgomery and the whole Lions offense were held down by the Packers in Week 1: he had 11 carries for 25 yards, and Jahmyr Gibbs took nine attempts for just 19 yards (Gibbs caught 10 passes for just 31 yards while Montgomery had four for 18). It wasn't a good showing for Detroit, but Green Bay might have a top-level defense.
They have a better chance of succeeding here against the Bears, who allowed the fourth-most yards per rush attempt last season. Chicago held down Aaron Jones Sr. well in Week 1, but Jordan Mason ending up leading Minnesota's backfield and took 15 carries for 68 yards.
The real question here is how many times Montgomery will touch the ball. His fantasy value tanked a bit with thoughts that Gibbs would take over most of the work this season, but Montgomery had more rush attempts in the first game and is likely to still be plenty involved. There will always be a question since he is splitting reps, though.
I believe both Lions running backs will bounce back this week and have better outings. With a decent matchup, that means one or both could have a good game, maybe finding the end zone along the way.
Advice: Start David Montgomery over Dylan Sampson, but it's close
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Rams
With Tyjae Spears on IR to start the season, Pollard is the clear top back. In Week 1, he took 18 of 20 running back carries, holding a real bellcow role. It wasn't an efficient day (60 rushing yards, 3.3 per attempt), but many running backs will struggle against Denver, and Pollard did escape for a 29-yard reception.
The matchup here against the Rams will be easier if only because it can't get much tougher than the Broncos. Los Angeles allowed the seventh-most yards per rush attempt last year, and they weren't great in Week 1, letting lead back Nick Chubb run for 60 yards on 13 carries (4.6 per attempt).
Pollard will be on the field often, and the Rams are somewhat vulnerable against the run (though they have a lot of young guys and can expect some improvement). I like Pollard's outlook of racking up volume if nothing else next to rookie quarterback Cameron Ward.
Advice: Start Tony Pollard over Dylan Sampson
Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Walker could be classified as a loser in the opening week because of how Seattle distributed carries. While Walker did catch three passes (for only four yards), he was out-carried by Zach Charbonnet 12 to 10, with Charbonnet averaging 3.9 yards per attempt to Walker's 2.0.
Charbonnet also got the most valuable carries, taking four attempts inside the red zone (to just two for Walker) and two carries inside the five-yard line (Walker didn't have any). Charbonnet also scored on one of those short plunges. Walker looks like he might be on the worse side of a timeshare.
The Steelers had a strong defense last year, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per rush attempt. They were unexpectedly torn up a bit by the Jets in Week 1, allowing Breece Hall to go for 107 yards on 19 carries (two other backs combined for eight attempts and 27 yards, and Justin Fields had 48 yards of his own).
I expect Pittsburgh to have better days moving forward and New York to maybe have a good rushing attack all year with Fields involved, so there's a chance for the Steelers to bounce back in this one.
Advice: This is a real toss-up. Both backs might have their time squeezed and have tougher matchups. I'm going with the veteran, but it's close to 50/50. Start Walker over Sampson by a slim margin.