49ers and Patriots Among Most Likely Last Place NFL Teams to Win Their Division in 2025

Every year from 2019 through 2023, at least one NFL team made the jump from last place in their division one year to first place the next. While no team went worst-to-first last year, both the Commanders and Chargers went from last place to wild card berths while coming in second in their respective division behind the eventual Super Bowl participants.

We don't always see these big jumps coming. The catalyst can be obvious sometimes, like Jayden Daniels joining Washington and playing at a high level, but other times, a Washington team led by Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins jumps from 3-13 to 7-9 and wins the division. Weird things happen.

Let's look at each team that finished last in their division in 2024 and try to determine who has the best chance to turn it around and win the crown this year. We generally have seen one team per season make this turnaround recently, so that's a good way to think about this group, though of course zero or two (or more) could ultimately make the jump.

Probably Not

• Carolina Panthers (5-12)
• Cleveland Browns (3-14)
• Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)
• New Orleans Saints (5-12)
• New York Giants (3-14)

The Panthers and Saints tied for the worst record in the NFC South, and both have the same type of win projection for 2025: they have Vegas over/unders around 6.5 wins. With Derek Carr being forced to retire due to injury, New Orleans' playoff hopes rest on either 2024 fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler or the 40th overall pick this year, Tyler Shough. The latter seems more likely, as Rattler looked overmatched last season. It's a tall order to ask a second-round rookie to carry a subpar unit to success.

While the Saints look to be on a downward trajectory, Carolina has added a lot of talent and should be better. Their hopes of winning big rest on Bryce Young continuing to improve in his third season and helping to prop up a better surrounding group of players (rather than just the other way around). Without major defensive talent, it will likely be too much for the inexperienced offense to overcome.

New Orleans and Carolina don't have an elite team ahead of them in the division. Tampa Bay is very good, and Atlanta has improved (though uncertainty at quarterback looms large), but neither team seems to be on the level of a true contender, leaving the door open for someone else. The Browns, Raiders, and Giants don't have that same luxury; in fact, all three have three potential playoff teams in front of them.

Cleveland has a lot of quarterbacks, but they don't really have a QB1. Whether it's Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, or Shedeur Sanders, someone is going to have to come out of nowhere to carry a subpar offensive group while the defense dominates if they want to win often. The Browns are more likely to fight for the number one pick than the AFC North title, especially needing to leapfrog the Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens.

The Raiders may have made the most improvement toward the middle this offseason, mostly with the additions of new head coach Pete Carroll and (especially) new quarterback Geno Smith. Vegas is still short on defensive talent, and they need to overcome the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs, all potential playoff teams. Their offense should be functional, though, after also adding Ashton Jeanty in the draft.

The Giants would have to displace the Super Bowl champs to take the NFC East. The addition of Russell Wilson gets them closer to a manageable NFL offense, but it likely doesn't do enough to put New York on the contender map. While the defense could be fun, the Giants might struggle to find consistent impact offensively.

Does Anyone Have a Chance?

Probably not (as the headline suggested).

Carolina has the most plausible case from this group, but they were just so bad the last few years that it seems like they'll need a little more time to build talent and develop players before making that jump.

There's a Chance

• Chicago Bears (5-12)
• New England Patriots (4-13)
• Tennessee Titans (3-14)

All three teams here have similar reasons for optimism: they have a first- or second-year quarterback with big-time potential and improved their talent level greatly through free agency, trades, and the draft. Every year, we see teams make major jumps; what better group to bet on than those with young, high-pedigree quarterbacks?

The Bears have spent multiple offseasons building the perfect offensive ecosystem. From a strong offensive line to one of the best quarterback prospects in years, a few great pass catchers, and a heralded head coach, Chicago has everything in place to take a huge jump on offense. If this doesn't do it, maybe the Bears really are cursed offensively.

New England did a lesser version of everything Chicago did: added a blue-chip quarterback prospect, upgraded the offensive line and pass-catching group, and hired a highly regarded head coach (though this time it's a defensive guy in Mike Vrabel). The path to playoff success is also the same: everything comes together around the QB, who makes a huge jump. Houston and Washington did similar things the past two seasons, though with rookie quarterbacks.

Speaking of rookies under center, Tennessee has the top overall pick in Cam Ward. He's the most likely player to keep the streak alive if we're going to have another rookie quarterback lead their team to the playoffs after being a top-two pick. They made major moves on the offensive line and began accumulating talent last offseason, so they have a decent veteran base, much like the Commanders did last year before Daniels came in and played at a high level.

Can Anyone Actually Make a Run?

Tennessee seems like the most likely candidate of this group to make the playoffs by virtue of the division crown. Chicago has to jump three playoff teams to get there, and New England is chasing one of the best teams in the league in Buffalo. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see the Bears or Patriots make it as a wild card, but they're probably not taking the division crown unless something crazy happens.

The Titans don't have that juggernaut in front of them. The Jaguars were only one game better than Tennessee last year, the Colts are middling and had to bring in Daniel Jones to push their own young quarterback, and the Texans, while back-to-back division champs, took a step backward last season and just remade their entire offensive line. Nothing is settled in the AFC South, and that means a Tennessee team with a good base of talent has a chance to make a run at the division.

Most Likely Worst-to-First Team

San Francisco 49ers (6-11)

This isn't cheating, but it kind of feels like cheating. It's the obvious answer; there's not a better bet from the teams listed to jump from last place to first place in 2025. San Francisco was killed by injuries last year, notably missing Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams for long stretches. Just through better health, San Fran would figure to be a better team this season.

They also watched a lot of talent walk out the door this offseason. Most of the teams we've talked about raised their talent floor, but the 49ers are probably a worse team on paper in 2025 than they were in 2024 (not counting the injuries). Among the starters who left the team were receiver Deebo Samuel Sr., guard Aaron Banks, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and cornerback Charvarius Ward.

San Fran is still loaded with talent, though. Brock Purdy just signed his $50+ million per year contract extension (a big part of the reason they lost so many good players), locking in their quarterback of the future. He has top skill players in McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and George Kittle; the defense still has stars like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. There's a lot going right with this team on top of what they've lost.

There's also no slam-dunk top team in the NFC West, though every team could make a claim as a potential division champion. Last year's winners, the Los Angeles Rams, are going to be back to much the same level. Seattle made a major change at quarterback, swapping out Smith for Sam Darnold, and while there might an adjustment period, they have a lot of talent. Arizona has added plenty of their own high-upside talent the past few offseasons, and they have a quarterback in place who has played at a high level in the past.

While it won't be easy, the 49ers could make the jump back to the playoffs if they stay healthy and show up like they did the previous few seasons. Their ceiling might not be as high without all their missing top players, but San Francisco has pieces in place to compete for a very competitive NFC West.