Fantasy Outlook for Jordan Montgomery After Signing with Diamondbacks
Discussing Jordan Montgomery signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks and what it means for the starting pitcher and the team's other starters.
Another big-time MLB free agent has finally found a new home.
Jordan Montgomery signed a big deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which boosts the team’s World Series odds and strengthens a pitching staff that was looking kind of weak as the regular season neared.
Let’s dive into what Montgomery brings to Arizona, what his new team means for his fantasy outlook and then finally discuss how it could change the fantasy outlook for some other pitchers on the team.
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Jordan Montgomery Fantasy Outlook
Montgomery’s deal with Arizona is for $25 million over one season, with a vesting player option for a second year.
A season ago, Montgomery pitched for the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers. He made 32 total starts, going 10-11 with a 3.20 earned run average. Montgomery struck out 166 batters over 188 2/3 innings.
Montgomery has a career 38-34 record and 3.68 ERA. He’s struck out 705 batters over 755 career innings.
Something that works in Montgomery’s favor is that he’s joining just his second National League team in his soon-to-be eight-year career. He’s only made 32 starts with an NL team, meaning not a lot of the big-time hitters in the league have faced him all that much.
Arizona also has a strong overall team, meaning every time Montgomery takes the mound, he’s got a pretty good chance of earning a win. If he can post numbers close to his career marks, he’ll have a good chance at 10 wins at least and be a pretty good fantasy asset.
Signing with just a day until the regular season might push his debut back, but he should still be able to reach at least 30 starts (if he remains healthy throughout the season).
Montgomery was a pretty solid fantasy option in 2023, and I like his outlook a touch more in 2024 with his new team. The fantasy owners that drafted Montgomery can breathe a sigh of relief, and really should be thrilled with his landing spot.
His Average Draft Position was 111.43 as of the time this article was written. He was the 34th starting pitcher, and has a chance to be a top-20 finisher at the position if everything falls into place.
Diamondbacks Fantasy Outlook
I loved the Diamondbacks’ top three starting pitchers (Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez) coming into the season, but it was recently revealed that Rodriguez would start the season on the injured list, and it left the team’s rotation looking a little weak, especially if Rodriguez’s absence is longer than just 15 days.
Tommy Henry, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson were the likely final three starters in the team’s rotation with Rodriguez out of the picture. Montgomery gives the team at least three reliable starters again, and if Rodriguez can return in relatively short order, Arizona might boast the best rotation in the entire league.
As for which starters might be yanked from the rotation when Montgomery and Rodriguez are ready to go, the Diamondbacks now have some options.
Henry is the only lefty in the rotation right now, but Montgomery and Rodriguez are both lefties, so the team doesn’t need Henry in the rotation to avoid a right-handed dominant rotation. It might simply come down to who is pitching the worst between Henry, Pfaadt and Nelson.
All three players have options, according to FanGraphs, so they could be sent down to the minor leagues instead of simply just moving to the bullpen.
Simply put, the Diamondbacks now have a good problem on their hands, especially if all the team’s starters get off to strong starts.
As we sit today, Pfaaft is the most owned (73%) between the final three SP to start the season. Rodriguez is somehow only at 86%, and if your league has IR spots, I’d absolutely add him and stash him. Nelson is owned in just 5% of leagues, while Henry is available in just about every league out there.
As for how to proceed with some of the lesser-known Arizona starters, I’d view Pfaadt, Henry and Nelson as streaming options to begin the season. Play them in favorable matchups, and don’t be afraid to move on from them if a better waiver wire option becomes available. Remember that the rotation will look a lot different when Montgomery and Rodriguez are back in the picture. That could mean trying to trade one of the starters when their value is at its highest (now), even if the return isn’t super valuable.
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