2023 Fantasy Baseball Late-Round Starting Hitter Values: Joc Pederson, Ryan McMahon & More!
For those of you who read my pitcher values article, you’re going to sense a common theme as you read through the blurbs below, and the theme goes something like this: arbitrage.
What does that mean? It’s an investment term and, according to Investopedia, it means “​​With investments, the strategy known as arbitrage lets traders lock in gains by simultaneously purchasing and selling an identical security, commodity, or currency, across two different markets. This move lets traders capitalize on the differing prices for the same said asset across the two disparate regions represented on either side of the trade.” In plain English for fantasy purposes, it means we’re looking for similar production from players you can take lower in the draft.
Said another way, we’re looking for high-upside gems at the end of your draft. There’s such little risk involved at the end of your draft (you can always just replace those guys with a waiver-wire player if they bust), so we’re taking big swings and hoping we hit on a guy who could finish in the top-50 (or higher!).
With that, let’s look at some hitter values!
Catcher
William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
If I told you that you could get a .275 average, 20 home runs, and 50 RBI out of an end-of-draft catcher, what would you say? Considering you’re probably going to get something like a .280 average, 20-25 home runs, and 80 RBI out of the top-ranked catcher, I’d say sign me up! Contreras is currently 176 on our ADP tracker, which makes him an absolute steal considering guys like Will Smith and J.T. Realmuto are going in the top-70. One of my cardinal rules in fantasy baseball is to stay away from high-round catchers – and William Contreras is the perfect poster boy for carrying out that strategy.
First Base
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
Ryan Mountcastle is entering the prime of his career at 26 years old and almost hit 30 home runs two years ago. He doesn’t have the massive upside of the early-round first basemen like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.or Freddie Freeman. But he still has a lot of value at this point in the draft. You can currently get him around 165 and pencil in 23-28 (30?) home runs with a .255 average and 90 RBI (with some potential upside). That’s amazing production for that point in the draft. Will he hit 40 home runs with 120 RBI? Probably not. But you’re very likely to get positive value out of him, and he’ll provide a little position flexibility with his outfield eligibility.
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Second Base
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Around 160 in the draft, you can snag a guy who almost hit 40 home runs in 2021. Sound too good to be true? As long as you don’t mind drafting a guy coming off a back injury, it’s a very real thing. Lowe is still just 28 years old and has HUGE upside. Last year was rough, but he was an MVP candidate two years ago and you’re not spending much draft capital for that upside. Even if Lowe busts, you’re not losing out on all that much by dropping a 15th (ish) round pick. We’re looking for upside at the end of our drafts, and Lowe has it in spades. It’s not a sure thing, but he brings top-50 upside and that’s a bet always worth taking at the point in the draft.
Third Base
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are likely going to be an absolute dumpster fire this year, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find fantasy value there. McMahon doesn’t hit for a great average (he’s a career .244 hitter), but he’s averaged 25.5 home runs over the past two seasons and plays in the best hitters’ park in the league. He’s currently being drafted 176th according to our ADP tracker and has legitimate potential to put up a season hitting .250 with 70 runs, 30 home runs, and 90 RBI while stealing a handful of bases. That’s extreme value for the end of your draft with basically zero downside. He even brings multi-position eligibility depending on your league rules.
Shortstop
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
Anderson had an injury-plagued 2022 season, but he’s still just 29 years old and is going around 150 in drafts right now. While that’s not exactly “free”, it’s still a relatively zero-risk draft spot. And we’re talking about a guy with 20-20 upside with a likely floor of a .300 average. The bigger bases this year could (theoretically) up Anderson’s steals potential, so while I’m obviously being optimistic here, we could be looking at a cheap player who can provide us with 15 home runs and 30 steals while hitting for a high average and maybe scoring 100 runs. Sign me up!
Outfield
Joc Pederson, San Francisco Giants
Was last season an aberration? Maybe. Is that worth the risk at a 177 ADP? Abso-freaking-lotuley. Pederson hit for the best average of his career last season at .274 while hitting the most home runs he has since 2019. That’s a tad strange for a guy who is about to turn 31, but again, there’s very little downside considering his ADP. Even if you only get something like .250 with 20 home runs, that’s more than serviceable for an end-of-bench player, and it’s more than worth it considering his potential upside of 25-30 home runs.
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