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Robbie Ray or Troy Melton

Who Should I Start? - Week 16 • Start New
Robbie Ray

Robbie Ray

SPSan Francisco Giants SF
Troy Melton

Troy Melton

SPDetroit Tigers DET
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Ray over Melton

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Robbie Ray

Robbie Ray carries a massive 24.1-inning scoreless streak into a holiday start at Coors Field

Ray has been essentially untouchable lately, posting a perfect 0.00 ERA and a microscopic 0.69 WHIP over his last 16 innings of work. He currently serves as the number two starter for a San Francisco squad that is 36-50 and struggling to stay relevant in the NL West. While he is in elite form, the Giants' defense is currently weakened with Matt Chapman on the injured list and Willy Adames dealing with back spasms.

Under the hood, this dominant stretch is likely a peak rather than a new permanent baseline. His season ERA of 3.72 is solid, but our models project a 4.18 ERA for the remainder of the year given his 1.30 season WHIP and a declining strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last 30 days. While he is a veteran with a Cy Young pedigree, fantasy managers should expect his ratios to drift back toward his career norms once this scoreless streak inevitably ends.

The left-hander is lined up for a single start this week on July 4th against the Rockies. This is a high-stakes matchup, as he takes his scoreless streak into the notoriously hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Despite the venue risk, our projection expects a strong 1.82 ERA over 7.1 innings of work for this outing. You simply cannot bench a pitcher this locked in, regardless of the elevation. Start.

Updated 23 hrs ago

Latest News Robbie Ray
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Melton over Ray

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Troy Melton

Troy Melton emerges as a high-velocity rotation anchor following dominant stretch

Melton has been nearly untouchable lately, posting a minuscule 0.99 ERA and 0.50 WHIP with 18 strikeouts over his last 18.1 innings of work. After a brief scare with back tightness in mid-June, he looked fully recovered in his July 1 start, where his fastball averaged 97.4 mph and he generated a high volume of whiffs. He currently slots in as the number three starter for a fourth-place Tigers squad that enters today at 38-49 while riding a three-game winning streak.

While his current 2026 performance featuring a 2.08 ERA and 0.81 WHIP suggests an elite breakout, our data expects some regression toward a 3.69 ERA as the season progresses. However, the under-the-hood numbers are encouraging, as his strikeout-per-nine rate has improved significantly over the last 30 days compared to his career baseline. His ability to maintain high velocity late into games suggests his recent run of quality starts is supported by a genuine jump in raw stuff rather than just luck.

Melton has already completed his scheduled start for the current week, a brilliant outing against the Yankees on Wednesday. With Detroit's remaining games this week featuring Framber Valdez and Jack Flaherty, Melton won't return to the mound until the following series against Texas. Owners should lock him into lineups for his next turn regardless of the opponent, as his recent command of six different pitch types makes him a high-end fantasy asset. Start.

Updated 23 hrs ago

Latest News Troy Melton
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Performance Robbie Ray
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.001-000210.631
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.002-000850.692
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Troy Melton
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.000-000710.491
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
0.991-1001840.503
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Robbie Ray
OWN
91%
+13.08 compared to last week
START
53%
-0.13 compared to last week
OWN/START Troy Melton
OWN
70%
+5.7 compared to last week
START
49%
-4.24 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Robbie Ray
Not Ranked
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Troy Melton
Not Ranked
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Robbie Ray

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 72nd among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 85th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • He has been under achieving. Look for him to bounce back.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 123rd in WHIP with 1.46
  • Top 100 in ERA and is currently ranked 90th
  • Top 10 in walks and is currently ranked 10th with 27
  • Top 50 in wins and is currently ranked 42nd with 4
  • His average points in the past two weeks have increased by 6.3 PPG. If you don't have the confidence he can keep it up, then trade him for a sure thing.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: -3, L: +3, WHIP: +0.208, ERA: +1.031, K's: -43, Walks: +2
Breakdown Troy Melton

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 59th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 49th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • He is doing a better than most people thought he would.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • WHIP is among the best in the league currently ranked 6th with 0.81
  • ERA is among the best in the league currently ranked 9th with 2.08
  • Top 50 in wins and is currently ranked 47th with 4
  • His average points in the past two weeks have remained fairly consistant and rose slightly by 0.7 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +4, L: +1, WHIP: +0.8, ERA: +2.05, K's: +32, Walks: +10
Next Up Health Check
Injury Robbie Ray

No Injury Reported

Injury Troy Melton

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Robbie Ray
DateOpponentResult
Mar 25VS NYYMax FriedL 0-7
Mar 27VS NYYCam SchlittlerL 0-3
Mar 28VS NYYJake BirdL 1-3
Mar 30@SDLanden RouppW 2-3
Mar 31@SDLogan WebbW 3-9
Apr 01@SDNick PivettaL 7-1
Apr 02VS NYMRobbie RayW 7-2
Apr 03VS NYMNolan McLeanL 3-10
Apr 04VS NYMClay HolmesL 0-9
Apr 05VS NYMHuascar BrazobanL 2-5
Apr 06VS PHIJonathan BowlanL 4-6
Apr 07VS PHIRobbie RayW 6-0
Apr 08VS PHIMatt GageW 5-0
Apr 10@BALLanden RouppW 3-6
Apr 11@BALGrant WolframL 6-2
Apr 12@BALCade PovichL 6-2
Apr 14@CINBrady SingerL 2-1
Apr 15@CINRhett LowderL 8-3
Apr 16@CINLanden RouppW 0-3
Apr 17@WASLogan WebbW 5-10
Apr 18@WASCaleb KilianW 6-7
Apr 19@WASAndrew AlvarezL 3-0
Apr 21VS LADLanden RouppW 3-1
Apr 22VS LADTyler MahleW 3-0
Apr 23VS LADTyler GlasnowL 0-3
Apr 24VS MIASandy AlcantaraL 4-9
Apr 25VS MIAMatt GageW 6-2
Apr 26VS MIALanden RouppW 6-3
Apr 28@PHIJesus LuzardoL 7-0
Apr 29@PHI
Apr 30@PHIChase ShugartL 3-2
Apr 30@PHIChase ShugartL 6-5
May 01@TBShane McClanahanL 3-0
May 02@TBJesse ScholtensL 5-1
May 03@TBIan SeymourL 2-1
May 04VS SDTrevor McDonaldW 3-2
May 05VS SDWalker BuehlerL 5-10
May 06VS SDMatt WaldronL 1-5
May 08VS PITRobbie RayW 5-2
May 09VS PITBraxton AshcraftL 3-13
May 10VS PITRyan BoruckiW 7-6
May 11@LADMatt GageW 3-9
May 12@LADAdrian HouserW 2-6
May 13@LADShohei OhtaniL 4-0
May 14@LADEmmet SheehanL 5-2
May 15@ATHAaron CivaleL 5-2
May 16@ATHTrevor McDonaldW 4-6
May 17@ATHAdrian HouserW 1-10
May 18@ARIZac GallenL 12-2
May 19@ARIJonathan LoaisigaL 5-3
May 20@ARIMerrill KellyL 6-3
May 22VS CHWDavis MartinL 4-9
May 23VS CHWMatt GageW 10-3
May 24VS CHWKeaton WinnW 8-5
May 25VS ARIMerrill KellyL 2-6
May 26VS ARIEduardo RodriguezL 5-7
May 27VS ARIMichael SorokaL 2-3
May 29@COLJuan MejiaL 8-6
May 30@COLRyan FeltnerL 8-3
May 31@COLCaleb KilianW 6-19
Jun 01@MILChad PatrickL 16-2
Jun 02@MILKyle HarrisonL 8-3
Jun 03@MILLogan WebbW 0-1
Jun 04@MILSam HentgesW 9-12
Jun 05@CHCRobbie RayW 3-18
Jun 06@CHCRyan RolisonL 3-2
Jun 07@CHCKeaton WinnW 1-2
Jun 08VS WASClayton BeeterL 3-4
Jun 09VS WASBrad LordL 3-6
Jun 10VS WASReiver SanmartinW 11-10
Jun 12VS CHCJavier AssadL 1-5
Jun 13VS CHCBen BrownL 1-6
Jun 14VS CHCLogan WebbW 5-1
Jun 16@ATLRobbie RayW 2-7
Jun 17@ATLCarson WhisenhuntW 5-7
Jun 18@ATL
Jun 19@MIACade GibsonL 4-3
Jun 20@MIAMax MeyerL 6-3
Jun 21@MIAJohn KingL 2-1
Jun 23VS ATHRobbie RayW 3-1
Jun 24VS ATHErik MillerW 2-1
Jun 25VS ATHGeoff HartliebL 6-9
Jun 26VS ATLDylan LeeL 1-3
Jun 27VS ATLLogan WebbW 5-0
Jun 28VS ATLRobbie RayW 3-2
Jun 29@ARIEduardo RodriguezL 5-4
Jun 30@ARIBrandon PfaadtL 8-2
Jul 01@ARITrevor McDonaldW 4-6
Jul 03@COLRyan Feltner
Jul 04@COLTomoyuki Sugano
Jul 05@COLTanner Gordon
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.726-60074411.3016
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Troy Melton
DateOpponentResult
Mar 26@SDTarik SkubalW 2-8
Mar 27@SDEnmanuel De JesusW 2-5
Mar 28@SDRandy VasquezL 3-0
Mar 30@ARIMichael SorokaL 9-6
Mar 31@ARIAndrew HoffmannL 7-5
Apr 01@ARIZac GallenL 1-0
Apr 03VS STLFramber ValdezW 4-0
Apr 04VS STLBrant HurterW 11-6
Apr 05VS STLKyle LeahyL 3-5
Apr 06@MINJoe RyanL 7-3
Apr 07@MINTaj BradleyL 4-2
Apr 08@MINBailey OberL 8-6
Apr 09@MINGarrett ActonL 3-1
Apr 10VS MIAKeider MonteroW 2-0
Apr 11VS MIACasey MizeW 6-1
Apr 12VS MIATarik SkubalW 8-2
Apr 14VS KCWill VestW 2-1
Apr 15VS KCKyle FinneganW 2-1
Apr 16VS KCConnor SeaboldW 10-9
Apr 17@BOSGarrett WhitlockL 1-0
Apr 18@BOSTarik SkubalW 1-4
Apr 19@BOSFramber ValdezW 2-6
Apr 20@BOSGarrett WhitlockL 8-6
Apr 21VS MILGrant AndersonL 4-12
Apr 22VS MILCasey MizeW 5-2
Apr 23VS MILBrant HurterW 5-4
Apr 24@CINGraham AshcraftL 9-8
Apr 25@CINBrady SingerL 9-2
Apr 26@CINBrant HurterW 3-8
Apr 28@ATLMartin PerezL 5-2
Apr 29@ATLReynaldo LopezL 4-3
Apr 30@ATLDrew AndersonW 2-5
May 01VS TEXTyler AlexanderL 4-5
May 02VS TEXKeider MonteroW 5-1
May 03VS TEXBrant HurterW 7-1
May 04VS BOSPayton TolleL 4-5
May 05VS BOSBrayan BelloL 3-10
May 06VS BOSSonny GrayL 0-4
May 08@KCLucas ErcegL 4-3
May 09@KCMichael WachaL 5-1
May 10@KCEnmanuel De JesusW 3-6
May 12@NYMFreddy PeraltaL 10-2
May 13@NYMBrooks RaleyL 3-2
May 14@NYMNolan McLeanL 9-4
May 15VS TORKenley JansenW 3-2
May 16VS TORLouis VarlandL 1-2
May 17VS TORKevin GausmanL 1-4
May 18VS CLESlade CecconiL 2-8
May 19VS CLEColin HoldermanL 3-4
May 20VS CLEColin HoldermanL 2-3
May 21VS CLEJoey CantilloL 1-3
May 22@BALChris BassittL 7-4
May 23@BAL
May 24@BALDietrich EnnsL 5-3
May 24@BALTroy MeltonW 1-4
May 26VS LAAJose FerminL 6-10
May 27VS LAADrew AndersonW 4-0
May 28VS LAAGrayson RodriguezL 1-7
May 29@CHWBryan HudsonL 4-3
May 30@CHWAnthony KayL 7-1
May 31@CHWBrandon EisertL 2-1
Jun 01@TBTyler HoltonW 9-10
Jun 02@TBJack FlahertyW 0-8
Jun 03@TBTroy MeltonW 2-7
Jun 05VS SEAFramber ValdezW 7-3
Jun 06VS SEABryce MillerL 0-4
Jun 07VS SEAWill VestW 5-4
Jun 09VS MINTroy MeltonW 10-4
Jun 10VS MINTaylor RogersL 4-6
Jun 11VS MINKeider MonteroW 11-0
Jun 12@CLETanner BibeeL 3-2
Jun 13@CLEJoey CantilloL 3-1
Jun 14@CLE
Jun 15@HOUKyle FinneganW 3-9
Jun 16@HOUBryan KingL 4-2
Jun 17@HOUPeter LambertL 4-2
Jun 19VS CHWDrew AndersonW 4-3
Jun 20VS CHWTroy MeltonW 4-1
Jun 21VS CHWWill VestW 5-4
Jun 22VS NYYFramber ValdezW 5-3
Jun 23VS NYYCarlos RodonL 3-4
Jun 24VS NYYRyan WeathersL 2-4
Jun 25VS HOUTatsuya ImaiL 1-2
Jun 26VS HOUKeider MonteroW 8-0
Jun 27VS HOUAJ BlubaughL 6-8
Jun 28VS HOUJosh HaderL 5-7
Jun 29@NYYCasey MizeW 3-7
Jun 30@NYYTarik SkubalW 3-9
Jul 01@NYYKeider MonteroW 2-6
Jul 02@TEXNathan EovaldiL 10-4
Jul 04@TEXKumar Rocker
Jul 05@TEXCal Quantrill
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
2.054-10032100.807
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Robbie Ray
11.03
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Troy Melton
11.67
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Robbie Ray
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2014 DET 8 27.2 520 19 10 0 1-4 6.83 1.77 6.2 36
2015 ARI 23 125.1 2257 119 49 0 5-12 3.59 1.36 8.6 289
2016 ARI 32 172.0 3176 218 71 0 8-15 4.92 1.49 11.4 407
2017 ARI 28 157.1 2715 218 71 0 15-5 2.97 1.19 12.5 509
2018 ARI 24 121.1 2287 165 70 0 6-2 4.01 1.38 12.2 320
2019 ARI 33 172.0 3064 235 84 0 12-8 4.4 1.36 12.3 443
2020 ARI 14 59.0 1216 79 50 0 2-7 6.71 1.85 12.1 85
2021 TOR 32 194.1 3141 248 53 0 13-7 2.83 1.04 11.5 571
2022 SEA 33 182.0 2923 207 62 0 10-13 4.1 1.23 10.2 405
2023 SEA 1 3.1 92 3 5 0 0-1 13.5 2.7 8.1 -5
2024 SF 7 30.2 568 43 15 0 3-2 4.7 1.14 12.6 82
2025 SF 32 180.0 3069 186 73 0 11-8 3.7 1.23 9.3 434
2026 SF 16 87.0 1527 74 41 0 6-6 3.72 1.3 7.7 178
ON PACE 30 164 2876 139 77 0 11-11 3.72 1.3 7.7 335
3-YEAR AVG 13 71 1243 77 31 0 5-4 4 1.22 9.6 170
Career 283 1498.0 26555 1814 654 0 0-0 4.05 1.32 10.9
Career Troy Melton
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2025 DET 20 51.2 779 44 19 0 4-3 3.31 1.12 7.7 112
2026 DET 7 44.0 606 32 10 0 4-1 2.05 0.8 6.6 123
ON PACE 12 81 1115 58 18 0 7-1 2.05 0.8 6.6 225
3-YEAR AVG 20 51 779 44 19 0 4-3 3.31 1.12 7.7 112
Career 27 95.2 1385 76 29 0 0-0 2.73 0.97 7.2
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Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs MIL 09:45 EDT EST Jose Cabrera
Kyle Harrison
ATH vs MIA 09:40 EDT EST Jack Perkins
Tyler Phillips
ATL vs NYM 07:15 EDT EST Grant Holmes
Christian Scott
BAL @CIN 07:10 EDT EST Trevor Rogers
Brady Singer
BOS @LAA 09:38 EDT EST Jake Bennett
Reid Detmers
CHC vs STL 04:05 EDT EST David Peterson
Andre Pallante
CHW @CLE 07:10 EDT EST Anthony Kay
Gavin Williams
COL vs SF 08:10 EDT EST Ryan Feltner
Logan Webb
HOU vs TB 08:15 EDT EST Spencer Arrighetti
Nick Martinez
LAD vs SD 10:10 EDT EST Shohei Ohtani
Michael King
MIN @NYY 07:05 EDT EST Mike Paredes
Gerrit Cole
PIT @WAS 06:45 EDT EST Mitch Keller
Foster Griffin
SEA vs TOR 10:10 EDT EST Luis Castillo
Dylan Cease
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
No games scheduled