Outlook Kai-Wei Teng
Velocity drops and extreme ratio inflation make Teng a risky option despite locked-in rotation security
Teng has struggled mightily of late, posting a disastrous 10.41 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over his last 12.1 innings, culminating in a rough outing against Detroit where his fastball velocity dipped. Despite these struggles, Houston's depleted rotation—with Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined—solidifies his role as the team's number three starter. His job security is safe for now, but the fourth-place Astros need him to find his form quickly to help turn around their 35-41 season.
While Teng's recent performance has been highly volatile, our models project him to settle in closer to a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the rest of the year. His high-strikeout upside remains his primary appeal, but the elevated walk rates seen in his recent stretch are a major red flag. Expecting some positive regression toward his career 4.56 ERA is reasonable, but he remains a volatile asset until his velocity rebounds.
Looking at the remaining matchups for the week, Teng is slated for a Sunday start at home against the Guardians and Slade Cecconi. While Cleveland's lineup poses a challenge, Cecconi's elevated 4.74 ERA offers a decent matchup if Teng can regain his command. However, given his current velocity concerns and recent blowups, the smart play is to Sit him this week.
Updated 2 days ago
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Outlook Robert Gasser
Robert Gasser finding his groove amid rotation injuries
Robert Gasser recently tossed 5.2 scoreless innings against Cleveland, showcasing improved command with five strikeouts. This strong outing helps bolster a first-place Brewers team (45-26) currently riding a three-game winning streak. With several key rotation pieces like Brandon Woodruff on the injured list, the lefty has solidified his role as a solid mid-rotation starter for Milwaukee.
While Gasser’s recent gem was impressive, his 5.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the last 30 days show he still has hurdles to clear. However, our models project him for a much improved 3.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP rest of season, closer to his strong 2024 debut. The improved command is real, suggesting his recent blowups were more of a fluke than a trend.
Looking ahead, Gasser has one remaining matchup this week on Sunday, June 21, on the road against Atlanta. He matches up against Grant Holmes, who carries a mediocre 4.33 ERA, making this a winnable game for Gasser. Given his recent momentum and Milwaukee's strong support, he makes a viable plug-and-play option. Verdict: Stream.
Updated 2 days ago
