Outlook Kai-Wei Teng
Velocity drops and extreme ratio inflation make Teng a risky option despite locked-in rotation security
Teng has struggled mightily of late, posting a disastrous 10.41 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over his last 12.1 innings, culminating in a rough outing against Detroit where his fastball velocity dipped. Despite these struggles, Houston's depleted rotation—with Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined—solidifies his role as the team's number three starter. His job security is safe for now, but the fourth-place Astros need him to find his form quickly to help turn around their 35-41 season.
While Teng's recent performance has been highly volatile, our models project him to settle in closer to a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the rest of the year. His high-strikeout upside remains his primary appeal, but the elevated walk rates seen in his recent stretch are a major red flag. Expecting some positive regression toward his career 4.56 ERA is reasonable, but he remains a volatile asset until his velocity rebounds.
Looking at the remaining matchups for the week, Teng is slated for a Sunday start at home against the Guardians and Slade Cecconi. While Cleveland's lineup poses a challenge, Cecconi's elevated 4.74 ERA offers a decent matchup if Teng can regain his command. However, given his current velocity concerns and recent blowups, the smart play is to Sit him this week.
Updated 2 days ago
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Outlook Jack Perkins
Perkins Struggles with Ratios Despite Maintaining High Strikeout Rate
Perkins continues to work in a high-leverage role for the second-place Athletics, who are currently trying to snap a two-game skid. However, the right-hander has hit a major rough patch, posting a bloated 7.57 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over his last eight appearances. While he continues to miss plenty of bats, his severe command issues are hurting his fantasy reliability.
Looking under the hood, his current 6.72 ERA is a massive regression from his solid 4.24 ERA in 2025. Fortunately, his excellent 11.76 K/9 rate suggests his raw stuff is still elite, meaning positive regression is likely once his inflated hit rate normalizes. Our data indicates his long-term outlook is salvageable if he can limit the free passes.
For the remaining games of this week, our projection expects Perkins to log around five innings with six strikeouts but maintain an elevated 1.60 WHIP. With no projected saves on the horizon for the next few days, fantasy managers should avoid the ratio risk. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 2 days ago
