Outlook Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips faces mounting ratio risks as recent control issues threaten his hold on fantasy relevance.
Tyler Phillips slots in as the number three starter in the Marlins rotation, a role solidified by several rotation injuries, including Eury Perez. However, his recent form has been highly concerning, as he has struggled to a 7.50 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over his last 14 days. These struggles come as the fourth-place Marlins look to find consistency in a highly competitive division.
Under the hood, Phillips' recent slide points to a regression our models have anticipated. While he holds a solid 3.24 season ERA, his 1.44 season WHIP and recent uptick in free passes suggest his current baseline is unsustainable. Our projection expects him to settle around a 4.37 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, suggesting that his recent rough patch is a truer indicator of his current skill level than his early-season success.
Looking at the week ahead, Phillips is not scheduled to start during the remaining games of Miami's matchups against San Francisco, having already taken a heavy loss on June 16 against Philadelphia. With no remaining starts this week and ratios that are currently actively harming fantasy rosters, he can be safely left on benches. Weekly Verdict: Sit.
Updated 2 days ago
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Outlook Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller looks to stabilize ratios and secure mid-rotation value
Mitch Keller enters the 2026 campaign solidified as a mid-rotation staple for the Pirates, officially slotting in as the number two starter in the rotation behind sophomore sensation Paul Skenes. At 30 years old, Keller brings veteran stability to a young Pittsburgh rotation. He has proven durable throughout his career, throwing over 170 innings in each of his last three seasons. This reliability makes him a highly active asset for fantasy managers looking for volume, even if he occasionally experiences some performance volatility.
Our projections expect Keller to bounce back from last year's minor regression, forecasting a 4.24 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 176.0 projected innings. Keller's strikeout numbers should remain helpful but not elite, as our models project 110 strikeouts, translating to a moderate strikeout-to-walk ratio. While his career metrics suggest his ceiling is capped near a low-4.00 ERA, he is supported by a Pirates lineup that features some ascending bats, giving him decent opportunities to push for seven wins despite pitching in a highly competitive division.
Drafting near his ADP of 240, Keller represents a highly accessible depth starter who can anchor the back end of fantasy rotations. He is a relatively safe floor play who will provide valuable volume, though fantasy managers should be prepared for occasional ratio risk in tough matchups. Keller is best utilized as a matchup-dependent starter rather than an undisputed weekly option.
Updated 2 days ago
