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Seth Lugo or Cade Cavalli

Who Should I Start? - Week 12 • Start New
Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo

SPKansas City Royals KC
Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli

SPWashington Nationals WAS
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Lugo over Cavalli

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Seth Lugo

Elite Defensive Anchor Looks to Rebound to Prime Offensive Value

Nolan Arenado enters the 2026 season locked in as the everyday starting third baseman and cleanup hitter for the Cardinals, bringing unmatched defensive wizardry and a highly secure role in the middle of the St. Louis lineup. Entering his age-35 season, Arenado remains the defensive foundation of the infield. While his overall offensive ceiling has dipped slightly from his peak Coors Field campaigns, he remains incredibly durable and provides a stable plate appearance projection that fantasy managers can rely on for consistent volume.

Our data projects Arenado for another highly productive season, featuring nearly 25 home runs, over 85 RBIs, and a solid .268 batting average across more than 550 at-bats. Comparing this to his career stats, Arenado has shown a slight decline in isolated power, yet his elite contact rates and run-producing opportunities in a strong Cardinals lineup prevent him from becoming a liability in any standard category. His .326 projected on-base percentage makes him a reliable, neutral asset who contributes across four categories without damaging your team's ratios.

For fantasy draft purposes, Arenado is no longer the first-round lock he once was, typically aligning closer to a mid-round veteran target. He serves as an incredibly safe floor play for managers who want to secure reliable third-base production and steady counting stats without the high-risk profiles of younger, unproven options. While he lacks the elite speed of top-tier category-stuffers, his high-volume baseline makes him an excellent target to stabilize your infield corner slots.

Updated 3 days ago

Latest News Seth Lugo
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Cavalli over Lugo

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli set for a highly lucrative two-start week as the Nationals' rotation anchor.

Cavalli has been excellent recently, pitching to a stellar 2.08 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with 16 strikeouts over his last 13 innings. He sits atop the rotation as the Nationals' staff anchor, a crucial role given recent rotation injuries to Jake Irvin and Josiah Gray. Backed by the second-place Nationals (31-29), Cavalli's current momentum makes him an incredibly valuable asset.

While his season ERA of 3.74 is highly encouraging, his high 1.45 season WHIP suggests some regression toward his projected 4.20 ERA could be coming if he permits too many free passes. However, his strong 10.59 K/9 strikeout rate demonstrates elite missing-bat ability that keeps his fantasy upside high. Expect him to comfortably outperform his conservative rest-of-season projection if his improved command sticks.

This week, Cavalli lines up for two favorable starts, beginning at home against Miami and Sandy Alcantara, who struggles with a 4.78 ERA, and ending in Arizona against Michael Soroka. With 13 projected innings and a chance for double-digit strikeouts across these two matchups, he is an absolute must-play. Lock him in as a high-upside start in all formats.

Updated 3 days ago

Latest News Cade Cavalli
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Performance Seth Lugo
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
1.500-000601.001
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
2.981-000921.162
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Cade Cavalli
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.600-000631.601
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
2.501-1002261.113
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Seth Lugo
OWN
65%
+8.16 compared to last week
START
43%
+15.28 compared to last week
OWN/START Cade Cavalli
OWN
61%
+13.05 compared to last week
START
31%
+1.38 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Seth Lugo
63rd
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Cade Cavalli
81st
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Seth Lugo

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 63rd among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 56th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • He is putting up better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 116th in WHIP with 1.42
  • Top 100 in ERA and is currently ranked 76th
  • Top 25 in walks and is currently ranked 24th with 23
  • Top 100 in strikeouts and is currently ranked 95th with 57
  • Top 50 in innings pitched and is currently ranked 37th with 64.2
  • His average points in the past two weeks have increased by 2.3 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: -1, L: -1, WHIP: +0.148, ERA: -0.025, K's: +15, Walks: +6
Breakdown Cade Cavalli

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 81st among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 48th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • He is doing a lot better than most people thought he would. Can he keep this up or is it a fluke?
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 129th in WHIP with 1.47
  • Top 75 in ERA and is currently ranked 69th with 3.86
  • Top 75 in walks and is currently ranked 56th with 19
  • Top 50 in strikeouts and is currently ranked 44th with 66
  • Top 75 in wins and is currently ranked 69th with 3
  • His average points in the past two weeks have increased by 2.3 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +3, L: +3, WHIP: +1.43, ERA: +3.64, K's: +74, Walks: +24
Next Up Health Check
Injury Seth Lugo

No Injury Reported

Injury Cade Cavalli

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Seth Lugo
DateOpponentResult
Jun 01@CINLuinder AvilaW 2-9
Jun 02@CINBrock BurkeL 4-3
Jun 03@CINDaniel Lynch IVW 2-5
Jun 04@MINAndrew Morris
Jun 05@MINZebby Matthews
Jun 06@MINJoe Ryan
Jun 07@MINConnor Prielipp
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
nan-nan0
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Cade Cavalli
DateOpponentResult
Jun 01VS MIASandy AlcantaraL 3-7
Jun 02VS MIAJohn KingL 3-7
Jun 03VS MIAMax MeyerL 1-4
Jun 05@ARIMerrill Kelly
Jun 06@ARIEduardo Rodriguez
Jun 07@ARIMichael Soroka
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.530-0001041.272
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Seth Lugo
10.29
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Cade Cavalli
9.82
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Seth Lugo
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2016 NYM 17 64.0 961 45 21 0 5-2 2.67 1.09 6.3 151
2017 NYM 19 99.0 1641 85 25 0 7-5 4.82 1.4 7.7 217
2018 NYM 54 98.1 1615 103 28 3 3-4 2.65 1.1 9.4 257
2019 NYM 61 77.2 1275 104 16 6 7-4 2.78 0.93 12.1 262
2020 NYM 14 30.0 511 35 8 3 3-4 6 1.47 10.5 77
2021 NYM 44 45.2 686 54 16 1 4-3 3.35 1.2 10.6 108
2022 NYM 62 64.2 1067 68 19 4 4-2 3.62 1.19 9.5 156
2023 SD 26 146.1 2377 140 36 0 8-7 3.57 1.2 8.6 343
2024 KC 35 213.2 3281 189 53 0 16-9 3.07 1.11 8 535
2025 KC 26 140.2 2380 125 55 0 8-7 4.29 1.34 8 296
2026 KC 12 71.0 1120 60 23 0 2-4 3.55 1.34 7.6 141
ON PACE 31 186 2926 156 60 0 5-10 3.55 1.34 7.6 367
3-YEAR AVG 29 166 2679 151 48 0 11-8 3.54 1.2 8.1 391
Career 370 1037.0 16914 1008 300 0 0-0 3.59 1.22 8.8
Career Cade Cavalli
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2022 WAS 1 5.0 99 6 2 0 0-1 12.6 1.6 10.8 -1
2025 WAS 10 48.2 788 40 15 0 3-1 4.25 1.48 7.4 94
2026 WAS 13 64.2 1100 74 24 0 3-3 3.62 1.42 10.3 146
ON PACE 33 166 2828 190 61 0 7-7 3.62 1.42 10.3 376
3-YEAR AVG 3 16 263 13 5 0 1-0 4.41 1.47 7.2 31
Career 24 116.0 1987 120 41 0 0-0 4.34 1.48 9.3
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Player News

Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs LAD 09:40 EDT EST Ryne Nelson
Justin Wrobleski
ATH @CHC 08:05 EDT EST J.T. Ginn
Shota Imanaga
ATL vs TOR 07:15 EDT EST Chris Sale
Mason Fluharty
BAL @BOS 01:35 EDT EST Trevor Rogers
Brayan Bello
CLE @NYY 01:35 EDT EST Slade Cecconi
Carlos Rodon
HOU vs PIT 08:10 EDT EST Kai-Wei Teng
Jared Jones
KC @MIN 07:40 EDT EST Seth Lugo
Andrew Morris
MIL vs SF 02:10 EDT EST Coleman Crow
Adrian Houser
PHI vs SD 01:05 EDT EST Zack Wheeler
Lucas Giolito
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
VGK @CAR 8:00 PM EST