Latest News Chase Burns
Outlook Lucas Giolito
Giolito Struggles with Ratios in San Diego Rotation Amid Matchup Nightmare
Giolito has struggled mightily since joining the San Diego rotation, posting a bloated 5.16 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over his last three starts, including a disastrous 16.36 ERA over 2.2 frames last week. Despite these severe ratio issues, he has secured a regular role as the fifth starter for a second-place Padres team (32-26) that is currently missing key rotation arms like Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove.
While his recent 2.50 WHIP over the last fortnight is highly alarming, our models project some positive regression toward his career norms, forecasting a 4.36 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 155.0 innings. Giolito's strikeout rate has plummeted in recent seasons, but his current 4.43 K/9 in San Diego is an extreme low-sample aberration that should eventually rise toward our projection of 100 strikeouts.
This week, Giolito is scheduled for a single road start on June 4th against the Phillies. It is a highly unfavorable draw as he goes head-to-head with ace Zack Wheeler, who has dominated with a 2.27 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Given Giolito's current lack of control and the difficult matchup, he is an easy sit.
Updated 3 days ago
