Outlook Steven Matz
Steven Matz returns to the rotation but faces ratio risk as he shakes off the rust
Matz recently rejoined the first-place Rays' rotation after a stint on the injured list with left elbow inflammation. Shaking off the rust, he currently slots in as the number five starter for a surging Tampa Bay squad but has struggled lately, logging a dismal 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last two starts.
While his recent 13-inning sample yields a disappointing 5.54 ERA, our season projection expects him to settle around a much more palatable 4.04 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Given his extensive injury history, expect his ratios to slowly normalize toward his career baselines as he rebuilds his arm strength, making his current slump a temporary blip rather than a permanent slide.
Matz is scheduled for a single start this week on Tuesday against the Tigers, matching up against Jack Flaherty. Although Detroit presents a highly favorable opponent, Matz's low pitch counts and ongoing command issues make him too risky for active lineups; sit him until he proves his health.
Updated 3 days ago
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Outlook Mike Burrows
Mike Burrows Primed for Two-Start Breakthrough Amid Favorable Matchups
Mike Burrows is finding his groove, coming off a stellar seven-inning, two-run gem with six strikeouts against the Rangers. This outing lowered his ERA over the last 30 days to 4.64. With the fourth-place Astros (27-34) missing key arms like Hunter Brown on the injured list, Burrows has locked in his role as the leading man in the rotation.
While his overall 5.54 ERA and 1.49 WHIP look rough, underlying metrics suggest Burrows has been incredibly unlucky with defense and sequencing. His solid 2.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 11 starts shows his command is intact. Expect his numbers to regress positively toward last year's solid 4.06 ERA baseline as his luck evens out.
Burrows is a highly attractive two-start option at home this week. He first battles Pittsburgh on Tuesday against Bubba Chandler (5.02 ERA), followed by a Sunday matchup with Oakland's Gage Jump (7.20 ERA). Our models project a strong 12.2 innings with nine strikeouts across these favorable matchups, making him an outstanding weekly play.
Updated 3 days ago
