Fantasy Football Week 17 Tight End Who Should I Start? Dallas Goedert, Tyler Warren, Hunter Henry, and More
Comparing Dallas Goedert to four tight ends who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Dallas Goedert has been a key part of Philadelphia's offense on the way to another division title, and his 10 touchdowns are tied with Trey McBride for the most among tight ends (and no one else has more than five).
That helps Goedert to a lofty fantasy ranking, but he has a really tough matchup this week, causing owners to question whether he should be in their lineup. As a result, Goedert is showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at Goedert and four tight ends who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
Heading into Week 17, Goedert was TE2 in standard and TE7 in PPR. The touchdowns help buoy his score, as Goedert is averaging 4.1 receptions and 41.6 yards, fine numbers but modest in fantasy terms.
That makes Goedert a bit risky if you're expecting top-line production, as touchdowns can be random, and even a guy who has reached double digits might not score again. He's still fine, and he could keep finding the end zone, but Goedert hasn't been a top-10 tight end in the past when not scoring touchdowns.
The Bills have allowed the eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. TE groups are averaging just 2.8 catches and 32.9 yards with three touchdowns on the season.
Goedert (and Philadelphia's passing game as a whole) has a low floor here, and he's a risky player to trust in championship week.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Henry is second on the Patriots behind Stefon Diggs in targets, receptions, and yards, and he is tied for the team lead with six touchdowns. His 3.5 catches and 44.2 yards per game help him to a top-11 ranking in both standard and PPR, though he's more of a steady hand than a high-ceiling guy.
The Jets have allowed the ninth-most yards per pass attempt and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends; they present a slightly-above-average matchup. When these teams matched up in Week 11, Henry had four catches for 45 yards.
Advice: Start Hunter Henry over Dallas Goedert. Henry has the better matchup, and though he hasn't been as good as Goedert in fantasy, Henry is still at the level of a fantasy starter.
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Injuries and a midseason trade for Jakobi Meyers have thrown Jacksonville's pass-catching corps into flux at times, but Strange is third on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He has missed five games, but Strange's per-game fantasy scores put him just inside the top 20 tight ends.
The Colts have given up the 12th-most yards per pass attempt and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. When these teams played three weeks ago, Strange caught three of six targets for 27 yards.
Advice: Start Brenton Strange over Dallas Goedert. This is a tough one, as Strange is a lower-level player, but his matchup is much better, and I feel better about the Jacksonville tight end having a good day.
Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a high-ceiling, low-floor proposition. Waller has been very good at times but inconsistent (and dealing with injury), and his quarterback is currently seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers. A lot could go wrong here.
Tampa Bay offers a great matchup, though, allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Bucs have turned into one of the friendliest fantasy matchups for some elements of the passing game (mostly quarterbacks and tight ends).
Advice: Start Darren Waller over Dallas Goedert. Like with Strange, this is a risky play, and there's a low floor for the Miami tight end, but the matchup is heavily in his favor, so I'll trust the numbers.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Usually, this wouldn't even be a question. Warren was a stud most of his rookie season and proved himself as a top-five pick at his position next season. The issue is his quarterback situation, as Philip Rivers is set to go under center for the third straight game. Rivers has been fine for the most part, but Warren's ceiling and floor are lower than they were most of the season.
The Jaguars have been good against the pass (fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt allowed), but tight ends have found success against Jacksonville, scoring the 10th-most fantasy points per game. When they played three weeks ago, Warren had just two receptions for 15 yards.
Advice: Start Tyler Warren over Dallas Goedert. There is a low floor here with Warren as well, but he has a better matchup than Goedert. Warren's stats have been very low the past three weeks, but there's a chance he can do better in this one.
