Fantasy Football Week 16 Running Back Who Should I Start? Quinshon Judkins, Rico Dowdle, and More

The Browns are having another lost season in a millennium full of them. They sit 3-11 and in position to finish with a top-five pick, particularly with playoff teams on the schedule this week and next.

One of the few bright spots has been rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who missed the offseason and first week of the season but has since taken over as the top guy and is close to passing 1,000 total yards after 13 games.

He is undeniably a productive player, but his presence on a Browns team with a below-average offense that limits his scoring opportunities doesn't help. That has fantasy owners wondering if he should be in lineups against a strong Bills team, so Judkins has been all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.

Let's look at Judkins and four running backs who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.

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Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns, vs. Buffalo Bills

Judkins is averaging 62 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards per game with seven touchdowns. He is gaining a below-average 3.6 yards per carry, but that could be a function of a weak passing game and the 28th-ranked run blocking offensive line.

Judkins ranks right around RB20 in both standard and PPR. He will likely be drafted among the top 15 backs next year and has a nice ceiling if the team gets better around him. For the rest of this season, it's fair to think of him in that RB2/flex range depending on the matchup.

Buffalo presents a tremendous matchup, as they have allowed the second-most yards per rush attempt and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The opposing team's backs reached at least 100 rushing yards in eight of 14 games, and an individual back reached that mark five times. They have been stingy in not giving up RB receiving yards.

Judkins has a good outlook this week. There is a chance the Bills blow them out, and Cleveland abandons the run, but Judkins should touch the ball enough early to at least set a decent floor, and if he finds the end zone, he can have a big day.

Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dowdle will be one of the most interesting players to watch this offseason. He has been by far the best running back in Carolina, but he is only on a one-year contract, and the Panthers have Chuba Hubbard on a new extension and Jonathon Brooks, who has barely played due to injury but was a second-round pick last year. In a world where RBs are devalued, how many more resources to they want to push toward the position, even for a successful player?

The Bucs are right around the middle in both yards per rush attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to running backs. All but two teams have gotten at least 50 rushing yards from their backs, and one of the two that didn't was able to get 100 receiving yards. Tampa has given up nearly 56 receiving yards per game to RBs.

Advice: This is a 50/50 decision. Judkins has the better matchup but the worse team around him, and game situation could make his team abandon the run. By the slightest of margins, I will say to start Rico Dowdle over Quinshon Judkins, but either is a fine option.

Breece Hall, New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints

Hall is having a good season, already over 1,200 total yards with four touchdowns. His biggest issue over the next few weeks (and the past few) is that the Jets are starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook under center, lowering the floor and ceiling of the entire offense. Cook played most of the past two games, and Hall combined for 66 rushing yards on just 2.5 per carry and two receptions for 14 yards.

The Saints are close to the middle in both yards per rush attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to running backs. Opposing RB groups are averaging over 110 rushing yards and nearly 25 receiving yards per game with 14 total touchdowns in 14 games.

Advice: Start Quinshon Judkins over Breece Hall. I do like Hall as a fantasy player, but the Jets are way too far out of sorts right now, and Hall has a floor in the basement without much of a ceiling, even in an OK matchup.

RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

In four games since J.K. Dobbins went on IR, Harvey is averaging 15 carries, 51.3 rushing yards, four receptions, and 18 receiving yards per game with four total touchdowns. In that five-week span, Harvey is inside the top 20 RBs in both standard and PPR despite having his bye in that stretch; he has looked good as the starter.

The Jaguars offer a tough test, though, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per rush attempt and the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Only one team reached 100 total rushing yards from their backs against Jacksonville, and just five teams have reached 30 receiving yards.

Advice: Start Quinshon Judkins over RJ Harvey. Harvey is likely to touch the ball and build some volume, but the matchup is heavily against him, giving Judkins the advantage.

Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

Tracy is another guy who got the RB1 gig after an injury, as Cam Skattebo had broken out as a rookie before going down for the season. Tracy has played seven games without Skattebo (including the game in which the rookie was injured after four touches), averaging close to 12 carries, 55 rushing yards, 2.5 receptions, and 25 receiving yards per game, though he has only scored two touchdowns.

The Vikings have been a little better than average in both yards per rush attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to running backs. RB groups are averaging 107 rushing yards per game against Minnesota, though the Vikes have held them down in the passing game (20 yards per game, no touchdowns).

Advice: Start Quinshon Judkins over Tyrone Tracy. Tracy and the Giants have a pretty defined ceiling, so with a middling matchup, I prefer the better player with the better matchup in Judkins.