Fantasy Football Week 11 Tight End Who Should I Start? Mark Andrews, Colston Loveland, and More
Comparing Mark Andrews to three tight ends who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
It hasn't been a productive season for Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews. He has just one game with at least 35 yards, and he has only gone over four receptions twice. Some of that could be blamed on Lamar Jackson missing time, but Andrews hasn't done well even with Jackson in the lineup.
Given his name recognition, it's tough to ignore Andrews in fantasy, but that has been the best path most of this season. He has found the end zone recently, bumping up his fantasy score a bit, and that makes his status a little murkier than it would seem otherwise.
Andrews is showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool as a result, as owners try to determine if the veteran tight end is a feasible fantasy option in Week 11.
Let's look at Andrews and three tight ends who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
I mentioned Andrews' recent touchdown barrage, as he has caught just five passes for 36 yards over the past two games but got into the end zone on three of those receptions. That's not a sustainable model for fantasy success, as touchdowns are random; his only other two scores came in Week 3, when Andrews caught six passes for 91 yards and the two TDs.
Cleveland would seem to present a tougher matchup on paper, but the numbers aren't as great as their defensive reputation. The Browns have allowed the 11th-most yards per pass attempt and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. That puts them right near the middle as a tight end matchup.
When these teams played back in Week 2, Andrews had just one catch for three yards. He is at risk of another slow game because of his performance this season and because the Browns might be a little better than those numbers show right now. There's always a chance to score a touchdown in this offense, but I'm skeptical of trusting Andrews.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders
Ferguson has been a volume hog this season, ranking third among tight ends in targets and second in receptions. He has been terribly inefficient, averaging just 6.9 yards per catch, but Ferguson has also scored six touchdowns, tied for second most among tight ends.
The Raiders seem like they might be a target team given their team struggles, but they have been good in this area, allowing the 12th-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. I'm still not scared of facing the Raiders with a fantasy guy, but these numbers show that they aren't just a pushover in every facet.
Advice: Start Jake Ferguson over Mark Andrews. He is likely to get volume if nothing else, something that Andrews hasn't gotten this season, and without either player having a great matchup, I'll go with the guy who has been more productive.
Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Loveland has come on the past few weeks, catching six passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago then following it up with four receptions and 55 yards last week. Before that, he was anonymous in the box score, but given Loveland's status as a top-10 pick, owners are going to expect him to keep getting involved moving forward.
The Vikings have given up the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. We think of them as a strong defensive team, but the Vikings have taken a step back from last season and are more vulnerable to the pass. Loveland had just two catches for 12 yards when these teams played in Week 1, but that was his first career game, and he has a different outlook here.
Advice: Loveland has a low floor given his early-season performance and the presence of Cole Kmet, but there is intrigue based on his past two games and the matchup. While this is probably the riskier play, I'll give the advantage to the rookie and say to start Colston Loveland over Mark Andrews.
Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Pitts has a similar outlook to Ferguson in that he is finding volume but not efficiency (though Pitts has lower volume and higher efficiency than his Dallas counterpart). Pitts is averaging five receptions and 46.7 yards per game, fine involvement, but he has only scored one touchdown, leaving him below the level of a fantasy starter by total points.
The Panthers have given up the 12th-most yards per pass attempt and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The position is averaging 5.6 receptions and 70.4 yards per game, though they have scored just five touchdowns.
These teams played back in Week 3, and Pitts had four catches for 39 yards in a game that Carolina won 30-0. The Falcons are likely to have a better showing here, but Pitts' numbers were right near his season averages, and he will probably end up near those stats again. That makes him a lower-level player, but at least he'll be involved and gets a little boost in PPR leagues.
Advice: Start Kyle Pitts over Mark Andrews. I don't love the outlook for either player, but Pitts has the better matchup and will probably touch the ball more. If he finds his way into the end zone, it could be a nice week for the Atlanta tight end.