Week 11 Fantasy Football Trades: D'Andre Swift, Jaylen Waddle and Tetairoa McMillan

Fantasy football trading is easy in theory, but very hard in practice.

Plans to “buy low” or “sell high” only work if there is someone on the other hand willing to do the buying high and selling low. Thankfully, this is where the Fantasy Assistant comes in. The Assistant uses predictive analytics to generate an Expected Trade Interest (ETI) for each player. The ETI leaders in a given week are the players whom you are most likely to be able to trade for or away.

Here are those players for this week:

For Week 11, our top-three hottest trade assets are D'Andre Swift, Jaylen Waddle, and Tetairoa McMillan, all tied at an ETI of 21%. This is a slightly surprising list of names, as normally the most-traded players have something shifting in their situations. Aside from Swift returning from injury last week, these three aren't experiencing big changes.

Still, let's break down what to do with each of them on the fantasy trade market this week.

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Buy D'Andre Swift

Honestly, this one is pretty league-dependent. If the Swift manager in your league is demanding a king's ransom, don't force things. But the overall fantasy market seems to be just slightly down on Swift after Kyle Monangai's big game in his absence, so there may be a slight buy-low window here.

After all, despite Ben Johnson talking about riding the hot hand during the week, the Bears' backfield had essentially the same split it has had all season in Week 10 (Swift's first game back from injury). Swift played 61% of Chicago's offensive snaps, handled 65% of the backfield carries, and saw an excellent 22% target share on a 51% route participation rate.

In Weeks 1-8, he averaged a 61% snap share, a 69% RB rush share, and a 10% target share on a 44% route participation rate.

So, based on last week, Swift is back in the same role he has had all year for the rest of the season. And that role has him as a borderline RB1, ranked 12th at the position with 14.4 half-PPR points per game. Even if he doesn't keep that up, legit RB2s are worth their weight in gold. If you can get Swift for cheap, do it. 

Buy Jaylen Waddle

Waddle was also in the top three in ETI two weeks ago, and I listed him as a buy. My logic was simple: since Tyreek Hill went down, Waddle had performed like a WR1. But he wasn't being treated as such by the general fantasy market, so he was worth buying.

Since then, not much has changed. Waddle's post-Hill numbers are still excellent, now with a larger sample size: 13.6 half-PPR points per game on a 22% target share and an absurd 52% air yards share.

He has actually moved up from a top 10 WR in PFF Receiving Grade to a top-five option, fourth overall. His price is higher than it was two weeks ago — he was outside the top-20 WRs everywhere! — but it still isn't high enough.

If you can get him for anything less than legit WR1 prices, do it. 

Hold Tetairoa McMillan

It's tempting to paint a picture of McMillan as a potential league-winner. After all, he's a rookie WR with elite draft capital (eighth overall). He has played well so far this year, ranking as the WR17 in PFF Receiving Grade and averaging a respectable 9.7 half-PPR points per game.

Given everything we know about how rookie WRs tend to break out in the second half of the year, isn't he a prime candidate to explode down the stretch?

Unfortunately, not really. Rookie WRs to tend to improve as the season goes on, but the huge breakouts tend to come from players who started the season in part-time roles. T-Mac has been the Panthers' best receiver and their WR1 since the instant he stepped on the field. With a 90% route participation rate, a 25% target share, and a 44% air yards share, it's not like his role has much room to grow. 

And that's where the issue becomes clear. On most teams, those usage numbers would equate to elite production (Waddle's post-Tyreek numbers are similar, and I just finished gushing about him as a legit WR1). But on the Panthers, with Bryce Young at QB, McMillan has turned those numbers into WR3-level production. 

He's still a good player and a valuable fantasy asset, and it's entirely possible that he turns into a legit WR2 down the stretch — this is why he's a hold, not a sell. But I don't think his ceiling is much higher than that, and going out of your way to trade for solid receivers is usually a losing move.

Don't worry if you've got McMillan on your roster … but don't worry about not having him, either.