Fantasy Football Week 7 Running Back Who Should I Start? Bam Knight, Chuba Hubbard, and More
Comparing Bam Knight to four running backs who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
As starting running backs go down injured, fantasy owners are tasked with deciding not just which running games can sustain without their top guy but also who among the backups will get the most work. That has already thrown the fantasy world for a loop several times, including with the Arizona Cardinals.
First, James Conner was lost for the season. Shortly after, Trey Benson went on IR, leaving a bevy of unproven/unaccomplished backs to take over. We don't have a lot of clarity on who the coaching staff trusts most after two games, as there has been inconsistent usage.
Bam Knight was the big winner in the Arizona backfield last week, and that has him on the minds of fantasy owners heading into Week 7. Knight has been all over the FantasySP start/sit tool this weekend.
Let's look at Knight and four running backs who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to identify the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Bam Knight, Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers
In Week 5, Michael Carter dominated the backfield work for the Cardinals, carrying the ball 18 times for 51 yards and catching five passes for 22 yards. Knight had four carries for 11 yards and one catch for 13 yards; both backs scored a rushing touchdown.
That made it seem like Carter would be the guy moving forward, but Knight got slightly more work in Week 6, taking 11 carries for 34 yards and a touchdown while Carter had nine carries for 34 yards. Carter caught two passes for 30 yards and Knight one pass for 20 yards.
This is likely to stay as a split backfield until Benson returns, something that lowers the fantasy value of both players. It's nice that he scored in two straight games, but Knight gained just 45 yards on 15 carries. The ceiling and floor are both low.
The matchup in this one is also tough, as the Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per rush attempt and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. RBs have scored just two touchdowns against Green Bay and averaged fewer than 25 receiving yards per game.
We have a low-level player here with a bad matchup; that's not something I want any part of. Knight and Carter can both be considered as flex players against some teams, but this isn't the right circumstance. Keep them on the bench.
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Knowing that Knight is a guy best left on the bench, the head-to-head task is about seeing if anyone is less desirable. No owner wants to play a guy with a poor outlook, but sometimes we get backed into a corner and must choose the lesser of two evils.
Allgeier will always be behind Bijan Robinson in the pecking order, but Allgeier still gets his work, averaging close to 11 carries and 40 yards per game. He barely ever catches the ball, but Allgeier has scored three rushing touchdowns to just two for Robinson (Robinson also has a receiving TD).
The 49ers are right around average in both yards per rush attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to running backs. All fantasy players have a better fantasy outlook now than they did a few weeks back, as both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner have been lost for the season. This is suddenly a compromised San Francisco defense.
Advice: Start Tyler Allgeier over Bam Knight. I don't want to have either guy in my lineup, but if you're forced to choose between them, Allgeier has the better matchup.
Nick Chubb, Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks
Over his career, Chubb has averaged 5.1 yards per rush attempt. This year, he is at 4.3, right around league average. It's not a surprise to see him performing at a lower level near 30 years old with a recent major knee injury; this middling player is probably what we will see most often from Chubb the rest of his career.
The Seahawks have allowed the second-fewest yards per rush attempt but just the 14th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The reason for the worse fantasy performance is because they have been beaten in the passing game by backs.
Seattle gave up 109 RB receiving yards in Week 1, 102 in Week 2, and 52 in Week 6. While they were better with yardage in the other three games, backs have recorded at least seven receptions in all but one game against the Seahawks.
Advice: Start Nick Chubb over Bam Knight. I don't love Chubb's outlook, but he is likely to lead the backfield (more on that in a minute) and has been middling at least.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets
Hubbard might be the new Wally Pipp. Back in 1925, Pipp was the first baseman for the New York Yankees. He asked to be taken out of the lineup because of a headache one day, and a young Lou Gehrig took his place, collecting three hits and never giving the job back.
While Hubbard was out the past two weeks with a calf injury, Rico Dowdle took over and ran for 389 yards, gained 84 receiving yards, and scored two touchdowns. He was in the top two in RB fantasy scoring both weeks in standard and PPR scoring.
There's a real question now as to how the touches will be divided. Hubbard was the starter, but it's impossible to ignore what Dowdle just did. The most likely outcome is that they split the touches and maybe ride the hot hand, which could change the distribution from game to game.
The Jets are another team right in the middle in both yards per rush attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to running backs. While they aren't an easy team to run on, New York is also vulnerable against the right rushing attacks, which could include Carolina after the past two weeks.
Advice: Start Chuba Hubbard over Bam Knight. We don't know who will get the most carries, but Hubbard is likely to be factored in enough and has a better matchup than Knight.
Woody Marks, Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks
We talked about Marks' backfield-mate Chubb above. It seemed like Marks may have been gearing up to take over the majority in Houston when he out-carried the veteran 17-13 in Week 4 and gained 119 total yards with two touchdowns. Chubb led the team in touches the following week and was much more efficient, putting Marks' status back in doubt (they had a bye last week).
The matchup is middling at best, as I mentioned above, so Marks isn't a good play as the lesser half of a timeshare. There was a week of excitement, but it has been tamped back down, leaving Marks as only a super-deep-league option.
Advice: Start Bam Knight over Woody Marks. This is another case where I'm not excited about either guy.