Week 1 Late-Game Fantasy Football Running Back Start/Sit: RJ Harvey, Aaron Jones Sr., and More

Rookies bring hope. Heading into Week 1, when we've never seen those guys on an NFL field, the possibilities are endless. Every player could be a Pro Bowler. Or an All-Pro. Or a future Hall of Famer. (Everyone also has the chance of being a bust, but we won't talk about that on a day of hope.)

In fantasy football, drafting a rookie who turns into a star often means extra value, as most guys are taken later until we see them perform outside of expected superstars, like Ashton Jeanty. For those owners who took Omarion Hampton, Kaleb Johnson, and others, there is hope of a major boost from a mid-round pick.

Let's focus on another rookie running back, Denver's RJ Harvey, who plays in the second wave of games on Sunday and has been showing up often on our FantasySP start/sit tool. We'll look at a few other guys who have been compared to Harvey most and play in the later games (or night games).

Use the FantasySP Who Should I Start? tool every week to help with your toughest lineup decisions.

RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans

The rookie Harvey was a late-second-round pick and looked to have a clear path to a starting role until his team made a free agent signing later in the offseason (more on that in a minute). He should still get a chance to get on the field plenty and has a good team around him to help him succeed.

Denver's offensive line ranked first in both pass block win rate and run block win rate last season by ESPN's measure. You can't ask for anything more there. Quarterback Bo Nix is also a good runner of the football, something that generally helps the running back next to that QB. Nix had the eighth-most rushing yards among quarterbacks last year (430).

The matchup here is a good one based on 2024 numbers. Tennessee allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game last season and the 12th-most yards per rush attempt. By the same linemen win rates data linked in the previous paragraph, the Titans were in the bottom 10 in run stop win rate.

Until we get more information about the 2025 team, I am cautiously optimistic about targeting the Titans with running backs, giving Harvey a decent outlook in Week 1.

J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans

Here's Harvey's biggest competition for fantasy glory. It doesn't have to do with Dobbins' scoring as much as from what he takes away from his backfield teammate. Dobbins has been a good player when on the field but is injured way too often to count on long term. In Week 1, though, Dobbins is healthy and likely to play a large role in the offense, helping to limit Harvey.

We already looked at the matchup and saw that it brings intrigue, so it's about which player you expect to get more work. I'm leaning toward the veteran getting more chances early, both carrying the ball and on passing downs (Dobbins is listed first on the depth chart, for what that's worth).

Advice: Start J.K. Dobbins over RJ Harvey

Nick Chubb, Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams

Since I'm guessing that Dobbins will get more work than Harvey, that will come into play when comparing the rookie to these next two guys, who both appear to be the top options on their team but have other guys on the roster who will factor in.

Chubb is now another year removed from a major knee injury, leading to some hope that he can look something like his old self. I'm skeptical: Chubb is 29 years old and looked like a shell of himself last season in limited time after his return. The most likely outcome is probably Chubb getting decent volume but with low efficiency, maybe causing the team to spread carries to multiple players until Joe Mixon returns.

The Rams gave up the 11th-most rushing yards and the seventh-most yards per rush attempt last season. Their defensive line was above average in run stop win rate, but the Rams were still vulnerable giving up yards on the ground. With a lot of young players on their D, LA could expect plenty of internal improvement, but we need to see that before fully believing it.

Advice: Start RJ Harvey over Nick Cubb. It's very 50/50, but I'm not feeling Chubb as an impact player, and even Harvey splitting time leaves him the opportunity for a better week than the veteran.

Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Jones seems like he's still the starter in Minnesota, but there is a lot of buzz that offseason addition Jordan Mason could steal some of his work. Mason has averaged a very good 5.3 yards per rush attempt in his career (236 carries) and was an intriguing backup in San Francisco.

Jones was decent last year, racking up over 1,100 yards at 4.5 yards per attempt, a number just a hair above average. His biggest advantage is as a pass catcher, where he has averaged around 50 receptions per 17 games; Mason has only been lightly involved as a receiver.

The matchup against the Bears is a good one: last year, Chicago allowed the fourth-most yards per rush attempt and fifth-most rushing yards per game while ranking 29th in run stop win rate. There are a few new guys in town who could help (including defensive tackle Grady Jarrett), but the Bears are starting from a low mark against the run.

I still see Jones getting most of the work, and with the matchup in his favor, that makes him a good option in Week 1.

Advice: Start Aaron Jones Sr. over RJ Harvey

Week 1 Player Rankings

Here is how I rank all four players mentioned for the first week:

1. Aaron Jones Sr, MIN
2. J.K. Dobbins, DEN
3. RJ Harvey, DEN
4. Nick Chubb, HOU