Best Bets for Texans, Ravens and Packers, 49ers Divisional Round Games: Dalton Schultz, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey and More
A closer look at the game lines and some of the best prop bets for the two Divisional Round NFL games on Saturday.
There are only seven NFL games left this season not counting the Pro Bowl (which I never would). Seven opening kickoffs. Seven first pizza slices. Seven chances to bet on football.
The Super Bowl will bring plenty of chances for gambling, but let’s focus on this week’s games first. The Saturday games feature the two No. 1 seeds accompanied by nearly double-digit spreads. The favorites didn’t all fare well last week, but these teams are expected to handle business.
Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of noon Eastern Standard Time on Jan. 18. Check out our FantasySP player prop tool, which measures our expectations against the lines to find the best prop bets. I will reference that tool throughout.
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) – O/U 43.5
Line Bets
This is a big number for any game, let alone a playoff matchup. I wouldn’t go any higher, but I will pick Baltimore at this number. They were a dominant team during the regular season in all facets of the game.
Baltimore was the top team by total DVOA and defensive DVOA and checked in third and fourth in special teams and offensive DVOA, respectively. That’s a team built to win a championship. I won’t make a bet this high, but I favor the Ravens.
The total also seems about right and a bet I don’t see value in. I want to believe the Texans can make magic again offensively, but I don’t see it happening. The Ravens have the best defense in the league, with respect to the Browns. I lean toward the under but don’t have a good feel for it.
You may notice I didn't mention Houston much; there's a reason for that. The Texans have had a great run, and C.J. Stroud announced himself as a franchise quarterback within the first month of the season. Baltimore is just too good, though. This game will be about the Ravens.
Player Props
Dalton Schultz OVER/UNDER 3.5 Receptions
Schultz had one catch last week; it happened to go for a 37-yard touchdown. That was against Cleveland, one of the toughest tight end defenses in the league. While things are easier this week, it’s not by much, as Baltimore has a ferocious defense that was top 10 against tight ends.
When these teams played in Week 1, Schultz had two catches for four yards. That was a long time ago, and C.J. Stroud has blossomed in the time since. Given the tough matchup, though, it’s hard to trust Schultz to get volume work.
He had at least four catches in eight games this season and failed to reach that mark in seven. His average was just under four receptions per game.
Given his averages near the prop number, I’m trusting the matchup and expecting Schultz to go under. I expected a slow game for the tight end last week and was mostly right, and I see a similar outcome in the Divisional round.
Gus Edwards OVER/UNDER 13.5 Carries
Edwards was the benefactor of misfortune several times this season when he was thrust into a lead role following the injuries to J.K. Dobbins then Keaton Mitchell. He has been a productive fantasy player, scoring 13 touchdowns, but total production has been lacking at times.
Edwards carried the ball at least 14 times in just six of 17 games this season. Some of those games involved splitting time with Mitchell, but Edwards has had plenty of weeks with only Justice Hill beside him, and he hasn’t seen much bulk volume.
Houston is more easily beaten through the air than on the ground: They were the second-best team in rush yards per attempt allowed (3.5) but the sixth-worst team against the average pass (7.0 yards per attempt).
Baltimore will likely find more success through the air, limiting the amount of rush attempts. Lamar Jackson will probably be more active in the run game (another prop I like listed below), and the team signed Dalvin Cook before the end of the season, for what that’s worth.
I see Edwards being involved but not heavily in this one.
Other Props I Like
C.J. Stroud OVER 21.5 Completions
Lamar Jackson OVER 9.5 Rush Attempts (this includes kneel downs)
Devin Singletary UNDER 16.5 Rush Attempts
Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – O/U 50.5
Line Bets
I know what you’re thinking, and just don’t. You see Ravens (-9.5) and 49ers (-9.5), and you want to put together a 10-point teaser to get the favorites to +0.5. Parlays and teasers are bad bets. Don’t do it.
Things happen, as Forrest Gump once said, and the Packers are currently happening. Green Bay tore through the second-seeded Cowboys to put up 48 points (with a pick-six included). It wasn’t just an off game for Dallas and/or hot hand for the Packers; that was a complete and thorough butt kicking.
San Fran is great, but again, this number is high. It’s too high for me to put a bet on the game line (I would go with the 49ers if I had to make a bet). The total is a little more interesting, though. I see a game in which Jordan Love picks up where he left off (272 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys) and slings the ball around.
The 49ers averaged 29 points per game and often made it look easy. Green Bay is a middling defense, probably not up to the task of matching San Francisco all day. Something like a 35-24 finish sounds right. I’m feeling the over in this one.
Player Props
Aaron Jones OVER/UNDER 3.5 Receptions
This one really stands out on our player prop projection tool. We project Jones with less than two receptions, falling well short of the number needed. With such a big difference (by percentage), I wanted to dig more into this prop.
Over his career, Jones has averaged 2.8 receptions per game. This year, he was at 2.7. That easy estimate already points toward the under. On the season, he had four or more catches five times and less than four catches six times.
More than just Jones himself, does the defense give us any clues? The 49ers allowed the fifth-most receptions to running backs, but they also faced the fifth-most attempts to the position. Their ratio was near league average.
That was the case last year as well when San Fran faced the third-most targets to backs and allowed the 10th-most receptions. This seems like more of a case of opponent tendencies rather than a deficiency in the 49ers’ defense.
The San Francisco linebackers are considered some of the best in the league, led by unanimous All-Pro Fred Warner. I don’t think things are going to be easy for Jones in the passing game. I agree with the prop tool and say Jones goes under 3.5 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey OVER/UNDER 126.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
McCaffrey had a little injury scare in Week 17 and sat out the last week of the season as the team had the top seed wrapped up. He said he could have played in Week 18 if needed. It will be nearly three weeks since he last played by the time these teams take the field Saturday night, and McCaffrey is ready to roll.
CMC averaged over 91 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards per game. He is the most integral part of the San Francisco offense (other than maybe left tackle Trent Williams). Tyreek Hill is the only non-quarterback skill player with an argument for being as impactful on offense.
The Packers were below average against the run but did fairly well in limiting backs in the passing game, finishing in the top 12 in fewest receptions and receiving yards allowed to RBs. It’s fair to say Green Bay is league average against running backs.
That doesn’t cut it against a guy like McCaffrey. While this prop number is right at his season average, I assume McCaffrey will be an integral part of the attack early, even more than in the regular season. Our prop tool sees him finishing with 134 total yards, a number I find reasonable.
It’s not a slam dunk, but I like McCaffrey to have a big game in his opening playoff action.
Other Props I Like
Jordan Love OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Brock Purdy OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
#dalton-schultz #aaron-jones #christian-mccaffrey
