Fantasy Stars Who May Struggle Week 1: Joe Burrow, Najee Harris, DeAndre Hopkins, & Darren Waller

The best fantasy football performers have consistently good performances, but bad matchups and random weeks happen, leaving us disappointed by our first-round pick.  Other players are matchup-dependent and can only be trusted against weaker defenses.

Identifying players who are likely to struggle each week can help you make lineup decisions and have a Plan B depending on injury status.  Let’s look at players we have a reason to be wary of in Week 1.  I’ll focus on one player at each position who could disappoint and throw in a few honorable mentions.

Joe Burrow, Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow missed a long stretch in the preseason due to a calf strain, but he’s on track to start Week 1.  Missing that time robbed him of the chance to jell with the offense, but he has played with many of these guys before.  It’s impossible to know how much the time off will hurt him.

What we do know, however, is that Burrow will be on the road against the Cleveland Browns, a team he has struggled against the past two seasons.  Burrow starred in his two games against Cleveland in his rookie season of 2020, but the next three games over 2021-22 have been a struggle (Burrow didn't play in 2021 Week 18 against the Browns):

The numbers don't all look horrible, but two things stand out: Burrow's fantasy rank during those games was twice lower than 20 and topped out at 13th, and he was sacked five times in two of those games.  The Browns reinforced a good defense this offseason, adding Dalvin Tomlinson and Za'Darius Smith to start on the defensive line and safety Juan Thornhill from the Chiefs.  Add in two good corners and game-wrecker Myles Garrett getting after the passer, and Cleveland has a menacing defense on paper.

To put it all into one sentence: Burrow is coming back from an extended absence and starting the season on the road against a good defense he has struggled against.  Most fantasy owners are counting on Burrow, and he does have a talented offense around him, but I see him struggling to start the season and falling outside the top 12 among quarterbacks.

QB Honorable Mentions: Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills; Mac Jones, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Najee Harris, Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris had less yards and a lower yards-per-rush average last year than in 2021, and he was only a top-10 fantasy running back three times in standard scoring and twice in PPR last season according to Fantasy Pros.  Pittsburgh's offense has reason to expect improvement (additions to the offensive line, young players improving), but Harris has never averaged 4.0 yards per carry.

He starts the season against the San Francisco 49ers, the team that held running backs to the lowest weekly fantasy point total last season (and it wasn't even close, according to Pro Football Reference).  Conversely, the 49ers ranked only 27th against wide receivers in weekly scoring, meaning the Steelers might have to look to the air.  The middling output of Harris combined with a 49ers team that eats running backs for breakfast says to me that Harris will disappoint to start the season.

RB Honorable Mentions: Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans

This one hurts, as I saw Hopkins as a great value this season based on where he was drafted, but things aren't set up for a fast start to the season.  Hopkins opens the season against the New Orleans Saints, the team who allowed the second-least passing yards per game last season and ninth-least fantasy points to receivers.  Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore has missed some time but expects to be back for Week 1, and he will surely see large doses of Hopkins.

Further putting the spotlight on Hopkins is the status of Treylon Burks, the other starting receiver on Tennessee.  Burks has been dealing with a sprained LCL, and his status for the opening game is in doubt.  Even if he plays, he will likely be compromised, and that means the Saints can focus their gameplan around stopping Hopkins in the passing game.  I think Hopkins will do great things, but not in the first game.

WR Honorable Mention: All Baltimore Ravens receivers vs. Houston Texans; D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Darren Waller, Tight End, New York Giants

I believe in Waller's talent, but injuries have been a big issue that last two years, as he has missed 14 full games (and most of a 15th) over 2021-22.  He has had individual games of greatness in that time, but consistency has been an issue as he only had consecutive top-10 weeks among tight ends once in that same two-year span.  

To add to the uncertainty, Waller's Giants are on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys.  Dallas allowed the third-least points to tight ends last season.  They also boast a top-end linebacking duo with Leighton Vander Esch and Micah Parsons to match up with Waller, though Parsons has morphed into mostly a pass rusher.

There has been a lot of buzz around Waller this preseason, and New York has a dearth of receiving talent, so Waller could be targeted at a high rate, but he might also see time facing the top cornerbacks on Dallas.  There's always a chance for a breakout, but I see Waller failing to live up to the hype in Week 1.

TE Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens