Week 1 Fantasy Football Start 'Em & Sit 'Em
Week 1. It’s finally here.
It’s what you’ve been dreaming about since the 2021 NFL season ended. And it’s what’s going to keep you awake all week.
Do I start (insert end-of-draft running back who might start)? Do I sit (insert injured star wide receiver here)?
You’ll hear lots of people say stuff like “start your studs”, “ride the hot hand”, or “play the matchups”, but every situation is unique and warrants a deeper look at the context behind the decision you’re making.
Since this is our first week together, let’s set some ground rules on what we’re doing here:
- We’re not looking at starting players who are obvious starts. I’m never going to tell you to start a healthy Stefon Diggs. I know you’re smarter than that.
- We’re not looking at sitting players who are obvious sits. I’m never going to tell you to sit a scrub fifth-string receiver. Again, I know you’re smarter than that.
- We are looking at starting players who you may have never heard of until two days ago who might have an increased opportunity and/or juicy matchup.
- We are looking at sitting good players who might have a bad matchup, a recent string of bad games, and/or an injury risk.
And with that in mind, let’s dig into some Week 1 start/sit recommendations:
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Quarterback
START: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence looked downright lost at times last season, but a new year should bring a new Trevor. He’ll enter 2022 sans Urban Meyer (which is huge), and he also gained a new target to throw to in Christian Kirk. With his rookie season behind him and a head coach with a Super Bowl ring behind him, Lawrence has a good chance to start the year on a positive note against a Chase Young-less Washington Commanders team that allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. I have Lawrence on the cusp of being a QB1 in 12-team leagues this week.
Deep league start: Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers
SIT: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
I know it might sound insane to recommend sitting the reigning Super Bowl-winning quarterback, but there are better options at quarterback this week. To start, Matthew Stafford gets the weird opening game on Thursday night. Does that matter? Probably not, but there’s room for some messiness to start the season. More importantly, Stafford will face a Bills team that only allowed 2,771 passing yards last season. The next closest team was at 3,181. I’ll have Stafford outside the top 15 in my QB rankings this week.
Consider sitting: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
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Running Back
START: Mike Davis, Baltimore Ravens
This is predicated on J.K. Dobbins being ruled out or limited, but Mike Davis will be in for a heavy workload on Sunday if that’s the case. While Davis was last seen looking horrible last year, there weren’t many teams who ran more than the Ravens last year (only two, in fact). And someone has to log those carries if Dobbins doesn’t play, and Davis is worth an RB2/flex spot if we see that he’s in line for 12-16 carries
Deep league start: J.D. McKissic, Washington Commanders
SIT: Breece Hall, New York Jets
I know, I know. You took Breece Hall in the fourth or fifth round of your draft! You’ll probably be happy about that later on in the season, but I’d take a wait-and-see approach if you have another option. Besides the fact that the rookie is likely to split carries with Michael Carter, Hall has what should be a tough matchup against a Ravens that allowed the fewest rushing yards last season. I have Hall ranked around RB40 this week.
Consider sitting: Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Wide Receiver
START: Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots
I think a lot of people overlook Jakobi Meyers because he doesn’t do any one thing remarkably. But he’s still remarkably solid and caught a very quiet 83 balls last year. Though he’ll have to compete with DeVante Parker for targets, Meyers has been the Patriots' best receiver during training camp and has a built-in rapport with Mac Jones. With the Dolphins likely giving Parker plenty of attention on Sunday, Meyers should get an opportunity to shine in the slot.
Deep league start: KJ Hamler, Denver Broncos
SIT: Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite having what should be a good matchup, I don’t have Chase Claypool among my top-50 wide receivers this week. He’s been battling a shoulder injury for most of training camp, and he’s also been battling George Pickens for targets. With the addition of Pickens and the emergence of Pat Freiermuth, Claypool has a lot more competition for red zone targets, and he doesn’t exactly have Peyton Manning throwing him the ball either. He’s not a bad play, but I’d stay away from Claypool for Week 1 if you can.
Consider sitting: Marquez Valdes Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs
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Tight End
START: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Outside of a magical Week 5, the 2021 season was a very forgettable one for David Njoku. However, he’s the only halfway decent receiving option not named Amari Cooper on the Browns this season and should see an increase on the 3-4 targets he saw in most games last season. Njoku is no less of a dart throw than most of the other middling fantasy tight ends, but he at least has a path toward getting above halfway decent.
Deep league start: Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders
SIT: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
I’m not a Dolphins insider so I’m not exactly sure what happened, but Mike Gesicki seems to have fallen out of favor in Miami. Gesicki has reportedly been used as more of a blocking tight end in training camp, and it looks like he’ll see a drop in targets in the Dolphins' run-first attack. David Njoku, Cole Kmet, and Hunter Henry all look like better options this weekend.
Consider sitting: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
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