Week 11 Fantasy Football: Using Predictive Adds To Identify Waiver Wire Pickups
It was fitting to see Week 10 end with another wild upset as the San Francisco 49ers absolutely blew out the Los Angeles Rams 31-10. The NFL postseason picture is coming into focus, but the teams we expect to make it far in the playoffs have been dropping like flies over the past two weeks. At this point of the season, there are usually a couple of clear-cut favorites to make the Super Bowl. This season, the race seems completely wide open.
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After a Week 9 that was chock-full of upsets, Week 10 was almost as unpredictable. That said, I did nail all five of my Best Bets, so you’ll want to check out my Week 11 Best Bets before Sunday. From a fantasy perspective, some of the disappearing acts from Week 9 bounced back in Week 10 such as Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Patrick Mahomes, and Tyreek Hill. However, some players continued to underperform. Injuries also played a factor in Week 10, perhaps most notably with Aaron Jones suffering a knee injury that will keep him sidelined for the next one to two weeks.
Some of last week’s hottest waiver wire pickups performed admirably in Week 10. New England Patriots rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson led the way with a 100-yard day and two trips to the end zone. As we get closer to the fantasy football postseason, it’s pivotal to maximize your roster with the top waiver wire pickups.
Now that Week 10 is in the books, it’s time to prepare for Week 11 with FantasySP’s unique Predictive Analytics. Although only two teams are on bye (the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos) in Week 11, fantasy owners are dealing with injuries, COVID-19, and underperforming players. Last week's Predictive Adds helped you identify who other fantasy managers were going after so that you could make a higher bid if you participated in an FAAB league.
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Looking At Week 11 Predictive Adds On The Waiver Wire:
[predict="add-2021-11"]
RB AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers
Dillon was already trending in the right direction before Aaron Jones went down with a mild MCL sprain. Dillon saw at least 12 touches in each of his last two contests heading into Week 10. Against the Seahawks on Sunday, Dillon absolutely dominated once Jones left the game early in the second half. The second-year running back finished with 21 carries for 66 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He also contributed in the passing game with two receptions for an additional 62 yards. With Jones out for the next one or two games, Dillon slides in as a high-end RB2 in fantasy football. He will be the workhorse back in a high-powered offense led by Aaron Rodgers. For that reason, he is being added more than anyone else on the waiver wire. Jones owners should have handcuffed Dillon early on in the season, but if Dillon is available on the waiver wire, fantasy managers should consider spending 75% of their FAAB budget on Green Bay’s new featured back. Against a Vikings defense that ranks in the middle of the pack against opposing running backs, Dillon should easily get 20 touches and will likely find the end zone in Week 11. Even when Jones returns to action, Dillon has carved out a decent-sized role that may make him worthy of a flex spot in deeper leagues. Add Dillon immediately if you can.
[projection="AJ Dillon"]
Miami Dolphins DEF / ST
Streaming kickers and defenses is a popular and helpful strategy in all fantasy formats. No defense is being added more than the Miami Dolphins heading into a Week 11 matchup with the dismal New York Jets. After sacking Tyrod Taylor five times and forcing four turnovers against the Houston Texans in Week 9, the Dolphins were even better in primetime Thursday night against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Miami allowed just 10 points, produced four sacks, forced two turnovers, and Xavien Howard returned a Sammy Watkins fumble for a 49-yard touchdown. Miami’s Week 11 opponent, the New York Jets, allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. Considering what this defense just did to Lamar Jackson, it’s not hard to understand why fantasy owners are adding Miami at such a high rate with a matchup against Mike White or Zach Wilson on the horizon. Miami is a top-five defense in Week 11.
RB D’Onta Foreman, Tennessee Titans
Foreman is most likely available on the waiver wire in just about every fantasy league, and he makes a ton of sense as a top pickup in the wake of Derrick Henry’s foot injury. Since King Henry went down, the Titans have utilized a running-back-by-committee approach. In Week 9, Jeremy McNichols led the committee with 45% of Tennessee’s snaps, followed by Adrian Peterson with 21%, and Foreman with 21%. However, Foreman saw the most touches in Week 10’s close win over the New Orleans Saints. Foreman turned 13 touches into 78 total yards. The Titans are a run-first offense despite the absence of Henry, and Foreman has proven to be the most capable North-South runner on this team. It also doesn’t hurt that two of the Titans’ next three games are against terrible rushing defenses in the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. The waiver wire is very shallow right now so getting a team’s top running back would be a huge win for any fantasy owner.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Stevenson should have been added last week when it was obvious that Damien Harris would not be cleared in time for New England’s Week 10 matchup with the Cleveland Browns. The rookie running back had looked solid most of the season but was stuck behind Harris on the depth chart. Although Stevenson was in the concussion protocol with Harris all week long and was unable to practice, the rookie was cleared on Saturday and got the starting nod against Cleveland’s tough defensive line. Stevenson produced a breakout performance even though teammates Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor was also somewhat involved in the game plan. It was Stevenson who shined in New England’s 45-7 blowout victory over the Browns.
The rookie turned 20 carries into 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He also chipped in with four receptions on five targets for an additional 15 yards. It was Stevenson’s involvement in the passing game that made him even more valuable than Harris had been even though Harris entered Week 10 with the ninth-most rushing yards in the league and the fourth-most touchdowns. Despite those numbers, Harris was just the RB24 in PPR leagues heading into New England’s matchup with the Browns. That’s because he was barely on the field on passing downs and had only accumulated 11 receptions for 63 yards. Stevenson’s four receptions were twice as many as Harris has had in a single game all season. If you started Stevenson in Week 10, you are hoping that Harris is unable to return for the Patriots’ Thursday Night Football matchup with the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11. Atlanta is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. On a short week, Harris’ availability is still very much in question. If he is unable to suit up, Stevenson is a must-start. Even if Harris can go, the rookie has absolutely earned more playing time. If Stevenson is still available on your league’s waiver wire, you need to scoop him up immediately. I would spend about 75% of my FAAB budget on the rookie.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1459992197445537792
WR Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots
The former San Francisco 49er produced his best outing of the season with Mac Jones dialed in on Sunday. Bourne caught all four of his targets for 98 yards and a touchdown. He also added three carries for 43 yards with Bill Belichick drawing up multiple trick-plays for the veteran receiver. Bourne served as New England’s primary deep-ball threat and now gets a juicy matchup in Week 11 with an Atlanta Falcons secondary that ranks in the bottom third of the league at defending opposing wideouts. There aren’t a ton of solid receivers available on the waiver wire, so getting New England’s top deep ball threat while Jones is performing as the Rookie of the Year could be pivotal for fantasy owners scrounging the waiver wire for a wide receiver or flex option.
[lastten="Kendrick Bourne"]
QB Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
He’s baaaack! In his return to the Panthers, Superman produced touchdowns on each of his first two plays in Carolina’s thrashing of the Cardinals. With Sam Darnold out for the rest of the season, Newton is poised to take over as the starter in Week 11. He is clearly more talented than P.J. Walker. The Panthers have some decent weapons for Newton to work with, as Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the league and D.J. Moore has flashed tremendous upside at the wide receiver position. Not only can Newton accumulate fantasy points with his arm, but he is also one of the best in the league at getting into the end zone with his legs in goal-line situations. He’s probably not the most trustworthy option, but he is a viable backup quarterback down the stretch in most fantasy formats. And for owners looking for a Week 11 replacement with Matthew Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater on bye, Newton makes a ton of sense with a matchup against a Washington defense that has been burned all season and just lost their best player in Chase Young.
https://twitter.com/Pantherstatsguy/status/1459996007656267780
WR Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders
Fantasy owners got the production out of Edwards in Week 10 that they expected in Week 9 after Edwards took Henry Ruggs’ place as the WR1 in this offense. After putting up a goose egg in Week 9, Edwards hauled in three receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown. Still, it’s concerning that he only saw four targets for the fourth consecutive game. Edwards really struggled to get open.
https://twitter.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1460312821468737544
Although Edwards is the WR1 for Derek Carr, I don’t anticipate him having much success down the stretch. The Raiders brought in DeSean Jackson, and Hunter Renfrow has been the most successful possession receiver in PPR formats. Plus, tight end Darren Waller is obviously Carr’s go-to target. While Edwards has considerable upside, his floor is very low as evidenced by his 0 points in Week 9. I wouldn’t trust Edwards heading into the fantasy postseason.
[lastten="Bryan Edwards"]
WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
The rookie put together his best performance of the season in primetime against the Dolphins, leading Baltimore in receiving six receptions on eight targets for 80 receiving yards. Bateman was on the field for over half of the Ravens’ offensive snaps despite Sammy Watkins’ return from injury. Plus, Watkins’ lost fumble resulting in a Miami touchdown may have been the final straw that broke the camel’s back in allowing Bateman to leapfrog Watkins on the depth chart. Bateman is probably the third option in Baltimore’s passing game behind Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews. The Ravens’ pass catchers get a juicy matchup in Week 11 against a Chicago Bears secondary allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Bateman could have flex appeal down the stretch of the fantasy football season.
TE Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars
Now that Arnold has been able to develop a rapport with rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, he seems to have cemented himself as one of Jacksonville’s top targets in the passing game. Against the Colts in Week 10, Arnold hauled in five-of-seven targets for 67 yards. He also caught a two-point conversion, finishing with 13.7 fantasy points in PPR formats. Arnold has seen at least six targets in each of his past four contests. Given the volume that he gets on a weekly basis and the fact that the Jaguars are almost always playing from behind, Arnold seems to be matchup proof heading into a difficult game against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 11. If Arnold is available, you need to scoop him up now before it’s too late. He seems to be very reliable for double-digit points in PPR leagues.
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TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Are you seeing a trend yet? Clearly, the New England Patriots are the hot team when it comes to waiver wire pickups heading into Week 11. The former Chargers tight end has been a touchdown machine for the Pats this season. Since Week 4, Henry has scored seven touchdowns and is averaging a touchdown per game. Against the Browns in Week 10, Henry caught all four of his targets for 37 yards and two touchdowns. Both of his touchdowns came in the red zone and he has established himself as Mac Jones’ go-to option in the end zone. Considering the lack of options at the tight end position on the waiver wire, Henry is a great pickup heading into a Week 11 matchup with a banged-up Falcons secondary. Henry isn’t going to put up astounding numbers in the reception or yardage column, but his nose for the end zone makes him very intriguing. It’s understandable why he is the hottest pickup at the tight end position this week. He’s most likely gone in deeper leagues, but if you are in a league with a small number of roster spots and you need a tight end, Henry is the guy to grab.
[lastten="Hunter Henry"]
And that’s a wrap. Head back next week to see which players fantasy owners are flocking towards on the waiver wire ahead of Week 11!
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