The Case Against Mike Evans as 6th in ADP

Mike Evans is an elite talent and could get even better as his quarterback improves. His numbers last year proved he is among the best in the league. He was a top 3 fantasy wide receiver the entire first half of the season.

Evans success is largely dependent on his quarterback and is the reason why he should not be selected as a first round pick on draft day.

Jameis Winston had a very good first half of the season last year and a so-so second half of the season. His numbers, obviously, mimic'd Mike Evans. From Weeks 1-9, Winston had 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. From Weeks 10 - 17 Winston had 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

Similarly, Mike Evans only managed 4 touchdowns in his final 8 games of the season. And the final two touchdowns came at a time when most fantasy playoffs were already decided or you had to be in the Super Bowl for them to count.

Perhaps the most telling stat is the amount of targets Evans received early on versus the second half of the season. 101 versus 70.

The production out of Winston is unreliable and I expect his production to still be unreliable even after adding DeSean Jackson.

One can easily assume that A.J. Green and Jordy Nelson can have better season's than Evans and can be taken late in the first round.