Win Saturday With These Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers
Five starting pitchers with good matchups on Saturday who are widely available in fantasy leagues.
Welcome to August! With two months of regular season baseball remaining, we have three divisions within five games and two others within eight games. That will hopefully lead to intriguing playoff races down the stretch, but we still have six-plus weeks before that picture will really come into focus.
Moving to fantasy baseball, let's look at five starting pitchers in action on Saturday who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups. Most stats are from MLB.com, as are the probable starters. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.
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Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Baz is owned in close to 50% of fantasy leagues, close to not qualifying as a streamer but with enough availability to make it worth checking on him. Baz is having a very average season, and while that is greatly valuable to the Orioles, it leaves him a little lower on the fantasy radar. Most notably, Baz's strikeout rate has fallen to slightly below average after rating above the middle for most of his career previously. He is doing fantastic at limiting home runs, but nine unearned runs would bump his ERA from 3.91 to 4.72 if earned, in line with last year's ERA.
Philadelphia has been on the downswing offensively. After starting the year struggling mightily, they went on a hot streak that moved them mostly off our target list. Over the past month, they rank in the bottom 10 in pretty much every offensive box stat, bringing their season-long numbers back down to a bottom-10 level. The longer numbers show the Phillies as a team to target, so we will go back to the well.
Baz is a mid-level streamer. He has been good, and his strikeout upside gives him a bump even with that number a little down this season. With Philadelphia struggling again, the matchup is also right.
Kohl Drake, Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland has been one of our favorite targets all season, regularly struggling to hit for average or power. They have continued those woeful ways recently, so we will keep going after the Guardians every chance we get. More than just being a bottom-10 team, Cleveland ranks in the bottom five in most categories, including sitting last in both slugging percentage and OPS.
Drake has made just two major league starts, one good and one not so good:
- July 21 vs. Athletics: five innings, four hits, one run, two walks, five strikeouts
- July 26 @ Nationals: four innings, five hits, four runs, two home runs, two walks, one strikeout
Drake's minor league numbers were OK, showing good strikeout work but middling run prevention. More than 20% of his appearances were out of the bullpen, so that strikeout work might not be as good if starting full time, but Drake has shown enough to give a little hope that he can strike out batters at an average rate. There's just not enough information right now to really know what to expect.
Drake is a low-to-mid-level streamer. His rough start against Washington comes with the caveat that the Nationals have been a high-level offense all season, so there's hope that he can bounce back against a much lowlier offensive team. There's plenty of risk but also a little intrigue in deeper leagues.
Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels
Gasser has been average with strikeouts and better than average with walks in 57 1/3 innings. He has done middling work allowing hits and runs, but Gasser has given up too many home runs (one every 5.2 innings), hurting his overall numbers. His best work mostly came in July, as he allowed two runs or fewer in three of his four starts, two of those three lasting at least six innings (and the other five innings).
The Angels have had their ups and downs, but much of their season involved hitting for power and not doing great elsewhere. That was enough at times, but recently, Los Angeles has been among the worst offensive teams in baseball. Over the past month, they rank in or near the bottom 10 in essentially every box stat, showing a real lack of effectiveness in any area. Most importantly for our purposes, the Angels strike out at a top-three rate, setting a big ceiling for opposing pitchers.
Gasser is a low-to-mid-level streamer. I'm tempted to even bump him up another half-notch because of the sparkling matchup, but I'll show a little restraint for a pitcher that has been good but not great.
Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have been one of the worst teams of the past month, fighting with the Angels and a few others for that dubious honor. They have shown a serious lack of power all season, but Toronto has also failed to show much of a hit tool recently, faltering in every aspect as a lineup. They don't strike out much, setting a lower ceiling, but the Jays also don't do much well, presenting a nice floor.
Mathews is making his major league debut in this one after a strong minor league career. He showed strong strikeout acumen while holding an ERA of 3.15 in 334 1/3 innings, making him a promising prospect for St. Louis. There's no way to know what to expect from Mathews at the highest level, but there's no reason to think that he can't find success (even if it doesn't come right away).
Mathews is a low-to-mid-level streamer. I have a tendency to expect too much out of hyped young pitchers right away, so I'm tempering expectations a bit, but Mathews has a fantastic matchup here, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him begin his career with a quality start.
Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
Prielipp is in his first MLB season, having thrown 72 1/3 innings in 14 starts. His numbers are decent, as he has done fine work limiting hits, walks, and home runs, but Prielipp has given up a few too many runs, something that could be chalked up to bad luck given his other box stats. He has also done above-average strikeout work, something that was also true in the minor leagues, so there's a decent ceiling to his performance.
Seattle ranks in the bottom 10 in most areas, hitting for some power but failing often otherwise. They are another team among the worst over the past month offensively, rating in the bottom five in many categories in that time; there aren't many better targets than the Mariners right now. Throw in their strikeout rate (right around 10th place), and Seattle is a strong target every day.
Prielipp is another low-to-mid-level streamer. Given his K work and Seattle's propensity to swing and miss, it could even be argued that Prielipp belongs another half-level higher, but we'll show a little temperance while acknowledging that he has decent upside here.
Saturday's Streamer Rankings
- Shane Baz, BAL
- Connor Prielipp, MIN
- Robert Gasser, MIL
- Quinn Mathews, STL
- Drake Kohl, ARI