Fantasy Baseball Late ADP Risers/Fallers: Frankie Montas, Jonah Heim, Byron Buxton, Wilmer Flores, Jung Hoo Lee and More

Discussing some recent ADP trends as the fantasy baseball season gets ready to kick off.

The MLB season is nearly here (especially if your league includes the Seoul Series). If you are participating in your draft or are skipping the Seoul Series and are drafting soon, this article is for you.

I wanted to dig into some Average Draft Position data and offer some insight on why things might be trending the way they are.

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ADP Risers

One big riser is Cincinnati Reds’ Frankie Montas. He’s a starting pitcher that turned in a couple solid seasons in 2021-22, but only made one appearance in 2023.

Montas is healthy to start the season and is set to be the Reds’ starter on opening day.

Montas has struggled a bit during his spring training outings, but that’s to be expected after hardly pitching last season. The Reds have a fun young lineup that should give him plenty of run support, so if Montas can make it through the season unscathed, there’s no reason he couldn’t be a solid fantasy asset.

Texas Rangers catcher Jonah Heim is another riser. 

Heim kind of falls under the radar on a loaded Texas roster, but he’s coming off the best season in his career. He offers some pop and should have plenty of run-producing chances again this season.

If the top four or five hitters in the lineup live up to expectations, Heim could be in for a monster season. What’s great with Heim is that he plays a bunch (123 starts among his 131 games played last season). 

Heim is a good backup catching option, with the chance to start at a utility spot almost every day. 

Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton is going about 40 picks sooner in drafts of late.

Buxton has looked good in spring training games so far and enters the season healthy. Durability has been an issue for Buxton during his entire career, but for where he’s going in drafts, there’s some upside to try to cash in on. 

It’d be a lot to expect him to get in nearly a full season of games, but if he can, his 162-game averages are really strong, and a lot more valuable than his current ADP. I wouldn’t recommend taking him unless you feel great about your team’s other outfielders, but I also wouldn’t pass on him late in a fantasy draft - he’s a solid backup option with a chance to be a big draft steal if he can simply stay on the field.

Colorado Rockies’ Ryan McMahon is going about 35 picks earlier in drafts, and continues to see his ADP rise as the season nears. 

McMahon has put up good numbers this spring, and has stayed on the field for three straight years. The problem with him has been a low average - otherwise, he puts up pretty solid all-around numbers. 

He’s projected to hit fifth this season, which should allow him plenty of run-producing at-bats. McMahon is the team’s third baseman, but could also have eligibility at second base, which could be really useful for a fantasy team. I love him as a backup option at those two positions, especially if your players at those spots are contact hitters or are fairly unproven.

St. Louis Cardinals’ Kyle Gibson, Los Angeles Dodgers’ Gavin Stone and Miami Marlins’ A.J. Puk are all up at least 30 picks on the ADP list recently.

Gibson won 15 games a season ago, but that isn’t likely to continue on a worse team if he replicates the 4.73 earned run average he had. He did pitch 192 innings even with the high ERA, so if you are looking for an inning-eater, Gibson is an option pretty late in drafts and will be a streaming option to start the season.

Stone is likely to start the season in the rotation with several other Dodgers injured. 

He’s just 25, so if he pitches well right away, the Dodgers will probably try to keep him in the rotation somehow. Even though he’s going to likely get a few starts, I’d still prefer to spend my picks on someone else and then just stream Stone off the waiver wire when he’s pitching.

Puk has been a reliever for his four seasons in the big leagues, but is projected to start for Miami this season.

There’s likely to be some bumps in the road this season with him, but with a career 3.72 ERA, I am intrigued by him. He’s got great strikeout numbers, so even if he’s limited to five or fewer innings most outings, Puk could be a really solid fantasy option. 

I wouldn’t mind spending a late pick on Puk, especially if I was looking for a high upside guy in the later rounds.

ADP Fallers

San Francisco Giants’ Wilmer Flores is the biggest faller, going down over 125 picks lately.

He’s been a pretty solid option for the Giants over the past four seasons, but is projected to be in a platoon after the addition of Matt Chapman. Flores can play 1B, 2B and 3B, so that should help him get in the lineup a bit more, but if it’s only against lefties, that won’t be too many starts. 

I’d follow the trend here and only view him as a late pick in deeper leagues. I’d definitely keep an eye on him if he goes undrafted in a fantasy draft, as a single injury could vault him into a full-time role. There’s better fantasy options out there late in drafts though, so focus on someone other than Flores.

Tampa Bay Rays’ Amed Rosario is going over 115 picks later in drafts of late.

He’s another guy that’s expected to be part of a platoon, and if he’s only starting against lefties, that leaves Rosario with a pretty low fantasy ceiling. There’s a chance Rosario’s role could expand if some of the team’s younger talent struggles or gets dinged up, but again, I’d like my late-round picks to be on the field more often than not, and that means you are looking at other players outside Rosario.

A lot of the fallers are in that category because of injuries. Devin Williams, Matt Brash, Clayton Kershaw, Kodai Senga, Kyle Bradish and Gerrit Cole are part of that list. 

There’s a ton of MLB players to keep track of, so be sure to do your research before picking a player, regardless of where it is in a fantasy draft. Availability can be the greatest asset in fantasy baseball. That doesn’t mean you should completely avoid injured players, but make sure you factor in how many games they will miss when comparing them to other players.

One last name I wanted to talk about for the faller section is San Francisco’s Jung Hoo Lee. He’s down nearly 25 picks and going around pick 140 now.

He was a career .340 hitter in the Korea Baseball Organization and was hitting .348 in his first nine spring training games. Lee is expected to bat leadoff for the Giants, so you might be wondering why his ADP is dropping. It’s because he’s dealing with a tight hamstring (see, it’s very important to read up on all these players!). 

It’s not expected to be a long-term injury, but it’s something to keep an eye on if your draft is coming up. I think the couple-round drop in ADP is fair, especially if you are worried about Lee’s durability over the course of a season, but I wouldn’t pass on him too much later than his current ADP. I think he offers a good amount of upside for fantasy teams.

Be sure to keep tabs on all the ADP data as your draft approaches! Also take advantage of the Mock Draft Simulator and Draft Genius so you are prepared for any twist and turn your actual draft might throw you!

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