NHL Best Bets & Player Props (11/21/22): Kyle Connor, Mikael Backlund & More!
Welcome back for a second article of mine here and a nice 10-game NHL slate tonight as well! Tired of all the pre-holiday stuff and want to find some nice betting angles? I hope so, as we started off on the right foot with the first article and are looking to continue to build upon that.
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NHL Props To Target
I always take a cumulative look at individual possession metrics, role, and time on ice, look for easier matchups and games with a good pace to them, and focus on filtering anything out that does not fit this bill. Another nugget I like to share with building an NHL betting card of player props is I primarily focus on shot totals as half to full unit bet sizing-wise, and more longshot type wagers such as anytime goals I would put a smaller fractional unit on. Another school of thought, though higher risk and reward, is to simply add a small fractional unit for an anytime goal or point for a player you’re taking for shots on goal as well. Let’s dive in now!
Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots on goal vs CAR +132
Although this is not a good matchup on paper for Connor tonight, and our model projects three shots for him, I think there is value in this number at these odds given Connor’s consistency. I also like the fact that Winnipeg will get the last change here, rather than Connor seeing the toughest of Carolina’s shutdown lines more than likely. You might find a pretty good number on him to get a point or score as well tonight.
Mikael Backlund over 2.5 shots on goal at PHI -110
Other than him not playing on the top line, I like everything about this spot tonight for Backlund versus a putrid Flyers team that is in a freefall right now. Backlund is still getting over 17 minutes of ice time in November so far, hitting three or more shots in three of his last five while skating on the second power-play unit for the Flames.
Pavel Buchnevich over 2.5 shots on goal vs ANH -105
Pavel is getting right at 19 minutes of ice time this month and on the season, skating on the second line for the Blues who find themselves in an advantageous spot versus one of the worst teams in the league tonight. He has hit this number in the last two games as well, also finding the back of the net three times in this span.
NHL Game Lines To Target
New Jersey at Edmonton over 6.5 goals at -135 or best, consider over 7 at plus-money
Both teams excel in terms of pace and finding the back of the net. Keeping the puck out of their own net? Now that is more of a mixed bag. In short, this one pops in every major aspect and screams over. The real consideration here is if you are going to take it juiced at -135 to -140, as I see right now, or grab over seven at better odds. I think this is a rarity worth considering at either number tonight.
Calgary Flames in-regulation or -1.5 puck line at PHI
This one is a tale of two different teams going in completely opposite directions, the Flames towards playoff and possibly even Stanley Cup contention and the Flyers towards the bottom of the barrel, who have won only 2 of their last 10 games. I liked this matchup for Calgary a lot even with a fully healthy Flyers team, but throw in the injuries of Konecny, Couturier, Van Riemsdyk, Ellis, Atkinson, and Laughton and this is closer to an AHL than NHL lineup on the ice.
Vegas Golden Knights -135 @ Vancouver
Over the last 10 games, the Knights are fifth in the NHL in expected goals for percentage per 60 minutes, while the Canucks are 24th over the same span. In addition, 74% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the Golden Knights. I’m comfortable playing this to -145, and anything over that I would then look to possibly in-regulation as an alternate.
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