Fantasy Football Week 4 FAAB: Bids for Running Backs in New Roles and Breakout Players
Reasonable FAAB bids for two of the top waiver wire players at each offensive fantasy position.
Chances are, no one in your fantasy league has spent much of their FAAB money yet. There haven't been too many players on the waiver wire who were worth splurging on, so it has been a bit of a waiting game.
Well, that has changed, as we had two running back injuries in Week 3, including a first-round fantasy pick going down for the season. It's officially time to open the pocket book, and if you're afraid of spending too much early, you will probably miss out on guys who have a chance to really make a fantasy impact.
Let's look at two of the top waiver players at each offensive fantasy position heading into Week 4 and reasonable FAAB bids for each. Your numbers may vary based on your budget and roster needs, but these are good baselines for most owners. Most stats are from NFL.com, and fantasy points and rankings are from FantasyPros.
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Quarterback
Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons
Coming back from a torn ACL and having missed the first two games, it was impossible to know what to expect from Penix on Thursday night. Well, it couldn't have gone much better, as he averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt, and his team blew out the Packers 35-14.
We've mostly seen Penix look average through his first two seasons, and that's the most likely outcome moving forward. It's fun to dream of him breaking out in his third season, but we just haven't seen anything that points toward that sustained performance. Penix is a guy to play when the matchups dictate, and Week 4 against the Saints brings an OK matchup, so you could reasonably consider Penix; just don't blow your budget on him.
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Recommended Bid: $1-2
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Watson has looked good from a fantasy perspective so far this season, but don't conjure up hopes that he will find the form that made him a fantasy star early in his career. He had success throwing it in the first two weeks, and Watson ran for 45 yards on Sunday; put those things together, and he will have some productive games.
How often can we expect that, though? Watson was fairly putrid in his time with Cleveland before this season, and I'm not ready to believe he can be even an average QB on a regular basis until we see more of it. I like his floor because he can run and has a decent set of young talent around him, but this is another guy who needs to be deployed only in the right matchups.
Recommended Bid: $1-2
Running Back
Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins
Our RB picks are all about injuries, beginning with the players who are set to benefit most from De'Von Achane going down with a torn ACL. Gordon handled most of the work in Week 3 with Wright out, but neither guy got much run with Achane in the lineup, so it remains to be seen how things will shake out.
The most likely outcome is that these two backs split the work, at least until one guy stands out from the crowd and demands more carries. Depending on who you think that guy is and how much work you think he will get right away, you might be willing to spend some real money on Miami's backs.
It's probably worth grabbing at least one of these guys. The best strategy might be to put a bigger bid on the guy you want most and a smaller bid on the other; maybe you can steal both. If you're in need at running back, though (and who isn't?), then you can't go wrong picking up someone who could be a lead back.
I wish I could tell you who will take the lead, but it's a real question. I prefer Wright just barely, but it's very close, and you could talk me into Gordon, especially since Wright was out in Week 3. Make a play for one of Miami's RBs.
Recommended Bid: $8-12
Braelon Allen, New York Jets
Breece Hall's injury isn't nearly as bad as Achane's, but he does have a quad injury that has him week-to-week, so Hall might miss several games. That puts Allen squarely in line for an RB1 load for that undetermined amount of time, putting him on the fantasy radar.
Unlike Gordon and/or Wright, Allen's time to shine is probably limited. That means you shouldn't pay as much for him, but it's also worth grabbing him because there is at least flex value until Hall returns.
Week 4 brings a good matchup against the Bears, so Allen will be worth a spot in your lineup if Hall does miss this one. This is the first week of the season when FAAB money is really worth being spent; how much are you willing to put down on a guy who will probably lose much of his value soon?
Recommended Bid: $5-8
Wide Receiver
Tre' Harris, Los Angeles Chargers
Harris isn't far behind Ladd McConkey at the top of the stat line for the Chargers. A second-round pick last year, Harris came into the league with some intrigue, and after a slow rookie season, he is now looking like a real WR2 who could even move into a featured role eventually.
His biggest game came in Week 3, when Harris caught six passes for 76 yards. He will have to fight for targets with both McConkey and Quentin Johnston, but Harris looks like he will be a featured part of the offense as the Chargers try to get back on track. This is a guy worth adding to your roster.
Recommended Bid: $3-5
Mack Hollins, New England Patriots
Hollins isn't New England's clear WR1, even with A.J. Brown sidelined by a high-ankle sprain. Romeo Doubs and DeMario Douglas are fellow veteran options, and Kyle Williams, a third-round pick last year, is also part of the equation. It's a bit of a WR corps by committee right now.
I trust Hollins more than any of those other guys on any given week, though. He is unlikely to become a high-level option or even emerge as a true WR1 at any point, but there is a chance for continued targets after Hollins saw nine in Week 3, turning them into six catches and 87 yards. There's real WR3/4/flex value here.
Recommended Bid: $2-3
Tight End
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Johnson is owned in more leagues than a lot of the waiver players we talk about, but he still has enough availability to make it worth checking on him if you need help at tight end. Johnson has been productive in all three games, topping 50 yards in each, and he made his biggest impact in Week 3, catching two touchdowns.
Volume has been a big reason for his success, as Tyler Shough's 132 pass attempts are the most in the league through three weeks. That might slow down, which would hurt the pass catchers, but it has been constant over the first three games, so New Orleans might just be a team that airs it out game after game.
Johnson is worth a spot on someone's roster, so if you don't have a weekly TE option, then he might be the guy to fill that void. Feel confident in throwing a few bucks at the Saints' tight end.
Recommended Bid: $3-4
Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets
After two slow weeks to start his career, Sadiq went off in Week 3, catching seven passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. While he did have a rushing TD in Week 1, Sadiq only had five receptions and 38 yards combined over the first two games, so this breakout was a little unexpected.
That came in a great matchup against the Lions, and that's probably the best way to look at Sadiq, as a guy who can be a real option in the right matchups but might struggle to make a consistent impact. Part of that is his team; the Jets just aren't going to be a high-powered offense. Sadiq was a first-round pick for a reason, though, and he will probably have more successful fantasy games, making it worth considering him for your fantasy roster.