Fantasy Football Week 3 QB Start/Sit: How do the Injuries Affect the Fantasy Quarterback Outlook?

We have more information to go off after two weeks of football, but that's still not enough to really make educated calls. The small sample problem rears its ugly head in every sport, but at least in the others, we get 80-plus games to figure things out. With so few games in the NFL, we have to start deciding right away what we think is for real.

Let's look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 3 of the fantasy football season. Most stats are from NFL.com, and fantasy points and rankings are from FantasyPros.

Use FantasySP's start/sit tool to compare players and help make your toughest lineup decisions!

Start

Sam Darnold or Drew Lock, Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders

It's uncertain right now if Darnold will return to the lineup in Week 3, but whoever starts against the Commanders is in fantastic position to succeed. Let's start with the defense: Washington has given up the fifth-most yards per pass attempt and the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through the first two weeks, and that comes after finishing among the three worst in both areas last season.

Then there's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, last year's Offensive Player of the Year who has picked up right where he left off, hauling in 17 receptions for 277 yards and four touchdowns in the first two games. His numbers will slow down a bit, but that might not start yet with such a great matchup.

Both Darnold and Lock are worthy fantasy options this week depending on who plays. Darnold has a higher ceiling, but Lock has been good in the starter's stead, averaging 211 yards and two touchdowns. There's a lot to like in this one.

Geno Smith, New York Jets @ Detroit Lions

Smith has been just fine for a Jets team that almost started 2-0 before faltering late against Green Bay last week. His numbers are decent, not great, and that's likely to be his ceiling many weeks, but when the matchup is right, there is value in looking to a veteran quarterback with some intriguing young pieces around him.

The defense is the real reason Smith is here, though, as Detroit has been vulnerable against the pass in both games. They held Tyler Shough to a more reasonable 7.3 yards per attempt in Week 1 but gave up 410 passing yards on 56 attempts. Josh Allen had a more efficient game in Week 2, throwing for 248 yards on 8.0 per attempt with three touchdowns, the same number of scores Shough threw for in the opener.

The Lions struggled last season as well, finishing among the 10 worst in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to QBs. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them struggle against the pass all season, and that makes Smith a decent lower-level streamer this week.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have allowed the most yards per pass attempt and the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through two weeks; they might be our favorite target based on those two numbers so far. Indianapolis was right in the middle in both areas last season, so they might start looking better; they have faced Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, after all.

Stroud has racked up 627 yards through two games, but that came on 93 attempts, the most of any player so far (with a below-average 6.7 yards per attempt). Stroud has only been an average passer the past two seasons after a great rookie year, so seeing more of the same efficiency wouldn't be a surprise, and that would bring down his raw numbers if he started throwing less.

With the matchup heavily in his favor, though, it's worth looking at Stroud in this one. It's very possible that this is the beginning of things normalizing, as the Colts face a lesser quarterback and Stroud throws less often, but based on the 2026 numbers, this is a positive matchup.

Sit

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots

Lawrence was also listed as a player to sit last week because of a tough matchup against the Broncos. It was a risk after Lawrence tore up the Browns in Week 1, but he indeed struggled, throwing for 189 yards on 6.5 per attempt with an interception and no touchdowns.

The matchup is again on the wrong side for the Jacksonville QB in this one, as the Patriots have given up the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. That did come against Seattle's backup and a well-past-his-prime Aaron Rodgers, but New England had an above-average defense last year and should continue to find success on that side of the ball.

Lawrence and the Jags can go off on any given week, making it a risk to sit him if you're in a deeper league or just lost Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, or Jaxson Dart. The numbers say to be wary of him this week, though, and after what we saw against the Broncos, I'm recommending to sit Lawrence again if you can.

Marcus Mariota, Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks

It's always risky to start a backup quarterback in fantasy, but it's an extra-rough weekend for Mariota, who takes over for the injured Daniels with maybe the toughest matchup he could possibly face. The Seahawks have given up the fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs so far, and that comes after maybe having the best defense in football last year; this is a brutal matchup for anyone.

While Mariota is a fine backup, there's a reason he's a backup. There might be a few chances to consider him against weaker competition depending on how long Daniels is out, but Mariota has the downside of possibly being the lowest-scoring quarterback in fantasy this week. He's a must-sit player.

Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I like Willis' upside on any given week because of the way he can run the ball. He has been efficient gaining yards through the air this season, gaining 8.3 yards per attempt (with a below-average 58% completion rate). I'm still most intrigued by his 39 yards and a score on the ground in the opening game (though two attempts for six yards last week ruined his average).

The matchup just isn't in his favor in this one. Kansas City held Bo Nix to just 4.7 yards per pass attempt on the first Monday night of the season, and they followed it up by keeping Daniel Jones at 6.8 yards per attempt last Sunday night (a number a little below average). The Chiefs have had a strong defense the past half-decade, and they look to again have an above-average unit this year.

While Willis will have more positive fantasy games, this isn't set up to be one of them. His supporting cast is lacking, and the defense is a stout one that is likely to make everything tough. He could rack up some garbage-time stats, like he did last week, but that's a tough thing to count on.