Fantasy Football Week 17 Quarterback Who Should I Start? Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Drake Maye, and More
Comparing Josh Allen to five quarterbacks who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Josh Allen is the top quarterback in fantasy football this season. Entering Week 17, he was about 35 points ahead of the next closest player (according to FantasyPros). Allen had about 11% more fantasy points than any other QB.
That makes him an unquestioned fantasy starter, right? Well, yes, but in championship week, owners are leaving no stone unturned, and Allen has a really tough matchup. That has him showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at Allen and five quarterbacks who he has been matched up with on the start/sit tool. We always do a head-to-head comparison, but this will be a little more rapid-fire than usual because of Allen's status, which eliminates some names quickly. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I mentioned Allen's fantasy exploits above. He also currently holds career highs in completion percentage and yards per pass attempt. Allen is on pace to add around 130 passing yards, 95 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns to last year's MVP numbers.
He is also on track to throw five more interceptions, lose three more fumbles, and take 26 more sacks (!!!), so it's not like everything has been perfect. If you needed one quarterback for one drive to win the game, many people would choose Allen, but there are more warts this season than in 2024.
The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Philadelphia is also tied for the third-fewest points per game allowed, just 19.3.
Running is always a big part of Allen's game, and Philly has generally done well holding down that area as well, allowing 21.9 yards per game and four touchdowns. Three good running QBs have topped 50 yards: Justin Herbert, Jaxson Dart, and Patrick Mahomes when he was at his best running the ball.
Philadelphia also held guys like Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, and Dart (in their second matchup) under 30 rushing yards, so they have been able to find success even against tougher opponents.
The weather could also be a factor in this one, as the forecast calls for rain, but at least it will stay warm enough to not become snow. You're probably not benching Allen in any realistic case, but let's go through the five guys below and see if there's even a reason to consider it. Players are listed in alphabetical order.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals
It's another lost season for Burrow and the Bengals, but he said he wants to play the final few games if healthy, a plus for fantasy owners. Since returning from injury on Thanksgiving, Burrow has averaged 269.8 yards over four games with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions.
The Cardinals are right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. Arizona has talent on defense, but everything has gone wrong this season. They are a middling matchup.
Advice: Start Allen over Burrow. The Cincinnati QB has obvious upside, but he hasn't run the ball much since returning, giving Allen a major advantage in that area.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Lawrence is coming off two huge fantasy performances, combining for 609 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns, 71 rushing yards, and two rushing scores. That all came together for around 75 fantasy points.
The Colts are in the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, offering a middling matchup. Lawrence also had a good game against Indy three weeks ago (244 yards and two touchdowns).
Advice: Start Allen over Lawrence. As good as Lawrence has been, I can't trust him over Allen in the fantasy championship round. Lawrence is still a very good streaming option.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Maye ranks as QB3, one spot ahead of Lawrence and about 40 points behind Allen. Maye does high-level work with both his arm and his legs, averaging 263.1 passing yards and 25.8 rushing yards per game with 25 passing touchdowns and four rushing scores.
The Jets have allowed the ninth-most yards per pass attempt and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but they are worse since trading Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the deadline.
Advice: Start Maye over Allen. This is probably a question for DFS more than an actual fantasy league, but Maye is one of the few players who can approximate Allen from a fantasy standpoint, and the outlook against the Jets is fantastic.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
Purdy is another guy who has missed time with injury, playing in just seven of the team's 15 games. They stayed afloat and put up stats without their top QB, and Purdy has been good when on the field, averaging 248.1 yards and 2.4 touchdown passes per game.
Chicago offers a good matchup, as they have allowed the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Bears started off as one of the worst pass defenses in the league, but they have looked much better recently, holding four of their past six opponents under 200 passing yards and under 7.0 yards per attempt.
Advice: Start Allen over Purdy. The San Fran passer is fine here, but he doesn't run much, and Allen just has a higher ceiling.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Stafford is a top MVP candidate (along with Maye), averaging 278.6 passing yards per game with 40 touchdowns and just five interceptions. There is luck involved with that latter number, but that's true of anyone who ever won MVP. Stafford was fantasy QB2 entering Week 17.
The Falcons are another team that sits right in the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. Atlanta started the year really good against the pass, but they have been beaten in the second half of the year, including allowing more than 240 passing yards to the opposing team in six of their past eight games.
Advice: This might be the toughest call of the day, but I'll say to start Allen over Stafford because the Falcons aren't hopeless against the pass, and the Rams could also control this game and focus more on the run.
