NFL Week 16 Biggest Games: What's on the Line for the Bears, Packers, Patriots, and More

The Thursday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks looked like the most important game of the year to this point. The teams were tied at 11-3 at both the top of their division and the top of the NFC, with the winner controlling their destiny toward the No. 1 seed.

And these teams did not disappoint! After a slow first half, Seattle scored about two minutes into the third quarter to go ahead. LA reclaimed the lead less than five minutes later and followed that up with two touchdowns near the end of the third/beginning of the fourth quarter to stretch the lead to 16.

The broadcast brought up multiple times that the Seahawks were down to a 3% chance to win by their calculations (whatever those may be). Seattle couldn't move the ball most of the game, and they now needed two touchdowns and two two-point conversions in the final 13 minutes while not letting the Rams score again.

After driving inside the red zone the next drive, Sam Darnold threw an interception at the one-yard line; it seemed like the last gasp was gone. Then it started to happen. Seattle held the Rams to a three-and-out with just 1:36 running off the clock, and Rashid Shaheed returned the ensuing punt 58 yards for a touchdown.

Los Angeles again punted after only three plays on their next drive, this time running just 1:01 off the game clock. Two plays and 57 yards later, the Seahawks were back in the end zone and only needed a two-point conversion to tie.

You've seen the play; if not, here it is. Darnold threw a quick screen out to his left to Zach Charbonnet, but it was batted down at the line and fell to the ground. Charbonnet, seemingly innocuously, picked up the ball in the end zone, and the teams headed back to their sidelines for the kickoff, Rams leading 30-28.

After a slight delay, we were told that they were reviewing the play as a possible backward pass, and sure enough, replay overturned the call and said that because the pass was a lateral, it was actually a live fumble, and though the play was blown dead, it can still be recovered and ruled at the spot, which happened to be in the end zone. Charbonnet and the Seahawks were awarded two points, and the game was tied.

Six more drives produced four punts, a missed field goal, and the end of regulation, pushing the Game of the Year (so far) into overtime. After an eight-play, 80-yard touchdown drive took just 3:33 for the Rams, Seattle put together their own efficient drive, going 65 yards in nine plays and 3:14 for a TD.

The Seahawks once again went for two points, this time to win the game, and Darnold found backup tight end Eric Saubert sneaking into the middle of the field for their third two-point conversion, the win, and the top spot in the conference.

In one of the most anticipated games of the year, the two teams put on an absolute classic that could have gone either way a handful of times, and now the Rams must pray for a little help to get back into the catbird seat. Is this a sign of big things to come in an important week?

Over the weekend, there are four games between two teams that either lead their division or are playing for at least a tie of the top spot. While contests like the Jets versus Saints will pepper the schedule over the next three weeks, we will also get plenty of matchups between good teams fighting for playoff position.

Let's look at those four games, what is on the line for each team, and who might have the advantage. Most stats are from NFL.com. Game lines are from FanDuel.

Use FantasySP's fantasy assistant to link all your fantasy teams and get advice on roster moves, lineup decisions, and more!

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

What's on the Line?

This isn't Saturday Night's Main Event, but it is the main event of the Saturday NFL schedule, as the night game sees two teams fighting for the top of the NFC North. Chicago is 10-4 and Green Bay 9-4-1, so this one is for the division lead, and the Bears can take command with a victory.

Who has the Advantage?

Chicago is favored by 1.5 points. Generally, the home team gets three points, so two evenly matched teams would see the group playing at home favored by three. Since Chicago is at home but favored by 1.5, that means that Vegas sees the Packers as the better team by about a point and a half.

When they played two weeks ago, Green Bay won 28-21. The Bears got inside the red zone in an attempt to tie it at the end, but Caleb Williams was late throwing the ball and left it short, allowing it to be picked off to end the game. If a bounce or two went the other way, Chicago could have won.

I agree with Vegas that the Packers are a little better. With Chicago playing at home, this is their chance to show that they belong, both with the Packers and the rest of the NFC's best.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

What's on the Line?

These teams are tied at the top of the NFC South at 7-7. They play here and again in Week 18, and those games will largely determine who wins the division and who misses the postseason.

Who has the Advantage?

Tampa Bay is favored by three points. Since this game is in Carolina, that is pointing toward the Bucs being six points better than the Panthers. Most people would probably agree, as Tampa has underachieved and Carolina overachieved from preseason expectations.

Both teams have a negative point differential (minus-27 for the Bucs, minus-53 for the Panthers), and while Tampa Bay has a better offense, they also have a worse defense; this is probably closer to 50/50 than most people think. I will also give Tampa the slight advantage, though I won't be surprised if Carolina wins, particularly playing at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

What's on the Line?

The Jaguars lead their division by one game at 10-4, and the Broncos are up by two games in the West at 12-2. For Denver, the bigger issue right now is the top seed in the AFC, which they currently own with a one-game lead.

It's a huge game for both teams. Houston plays against the Raiders, so they will probably win, meaning the Jags would find themselves tied for the AFC South lead if they lose here. The Broncos could fall into a tie with the Patriots for the No. 1 seed if they lose and New England wins.

Who has the Advantage?

Denver is favored by 3.5 points, showing the Broncos being better by about half a point. They have such a good defense that many are expecting Jacksonville to struggle and be proven as non-contenders, something I could see happening.

More likely, this will be a close matchup because the Jags have a respectable defense of their own, and Denver can struggle to move the ball at times; it could be a low-scoring affair. I favor the Broncos just like Vegas does, but this is another close one that wouldn't be a total surprise if the Jaguars pulled it off.

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens

What's on the Line?

The Ravens lost to Pittsburgh two weeks ago, so they sit one game back and without the tiebreaker. The teams face off again in Week 18, so Baltimore needs to stay at least within one game and maybe even gain a game somewhere along the way. Every contest is pivotal right now.

New England is fighting for the top seed, as mentioned above, but they are also only one game above the Bills, who they lost to last week. The Pats will win the tiebreaker if they can win their final two games against the Dolphins and Jets, but they are surely looking to take all three and get that top spot in the AFC if Denver falters with a tougher schedule.

Who has the Advantage?

Baltimore is favored by three. They are at home, but that's still a bit of a surprise given Baltimore's struggles this year and New England's status near the top of the conference. The Patriots' schedule has been very easy, and we haven't necessarily seen them prove themselves as contenders, but New England has generally looked better than the Ravens.

I still have faith in the Pats. Baltimore has been so out of sorts at times, and New England looks functional in every area. We know Lamar Jackson's ceiling, so it's best never to count out the Ravens, but I'm going to give the advantage to the Patriots here.