Fantasy Football Week 14 Wide Receiver Start/Sit: Adonai Mitchell, Brian Thomas Jr. and More
Ted breaks down some of the toughest wide receiver start/sit decisions for fantasy football in Week 14.
Welcome to Week 14's fantasy football start/sit breakdown for the wide receiver position! This is the last week of the regular season for most fantasy football leagues, so many of you are likely in must-win positions. Read on to find my picks for receivers you can (and can't) trust for this pivotal week.
However, before we get there, I'd like to start with a quick recap of my results from last week. And Week 13's results were surprising. When I picked Jaylen Waddle as a start, I wondered if he was too safe a pick … clearly not, as he scored just 5.5 half-PPR points. Meanwhile, I thought my three sit picks of Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen were all pretty bold. All three came through (or didn't come through, depending on how you look at it), with 1.4, 4.1, and 5 half-PPR points respectively.
My remaining two start picks, Alec Pierce and Chimere Dike, were neither particularly bold nor particularly safe. But they had completely opposite results. Pierce smashed with 15.8 points, finishing just outside the weekly WR1 range. But you literally would have been better with an open lineup spot than Dike, who fumbled his only catch on the day to finish with -0.6 half-PPR points.
Hopefully, this week I can keep rolling with bold hits and avoid missing on my attempted layups. Without further ado, let's get started!
For more help with your toughest Week 14 start/sit decisions, check out FantasySP's start/sit tool!
Wide Receivers to Start Week 14
Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts
Pierce came through for me (and fantasy managers) last week, and I'm going right back to the well this week. Really, Pierce's underlying stats are those of a weekly must-start option.
He ranks 10th among all receivers in yards per game, as well as first with a whopping 113.4 air yards per game. I'm just going to keep listing him here until his consensus rankings and start rates reflect those numbers.
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. did not practice on Thursday with a heel injury. That means the Cardinals are trending toward another week without the sophomore WR … which means we get another week of WR1 Wilson, otherwise known as Jerry Rice reincarnated.
In two weeks while MHJ was sidelined by an appendectomy, Wilson recorded 12.5 catches for 151.1 receiving yards and 21.4 half-PPR points … on average. Yes, this matchup with the Rams' defense is tougher than most of the opponents the Cardinals have faced during Jacoby Brissett's Linsanity run. But Wilson could regress by 50% and still provide a decent week, so I recommend simply sticking him in your lineup and waiting for garbage time.
Adonai Mitchell, New York Jets
This feels like the kind of play that will inevitably blow up in my face. The Jets' offense has been inconsistent all season, and Mitchell isn't exactly a reliable option himself. But his usage since being traded to New York is simply too good to ignore.
Over the last three weeks, Mitchell has seen target shares of 22%, 25%, and 36%. Obviously, he turned that elite 36% mark into fantasy production last week, finishing as the WR6 with over 20 fantasy points.
Even if he doesn't match that performance this week, the talented second-year wideout should see enough work against a beatable Miami secondary to be a viable fantasy starter.
Wide Receivers to Sit Week 14
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Last week, I faded Justin Jefferson, and it worked out. But I'm not feeling quite that bold this week with J.J. McCarthy back under center and Minnesota facing a soft Commanders' secondary. Instead, let's slide one spot down the Vikings' WR depth chart and fade Addison.
Like Jefferson, Addison has been impacted by McCarthy's accuracy issues. And unlike Jefferson, he isn't the best receiver in the NFL and seeing elite target shares. In his four games played with the sophomore QB, Addison has averaged just 5.4 half-PPR points on 4.5 targets (only 56% of which have been catchable) per game.
Addison is talented enough that he could still come through, especially given the aforementioned good matchup (the Commanders rank fifth in points per game allowed to opposing WRs). But I certainly wouldn't count on it, which means I don't recommend trusting him in such a critical fantasy football week.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Last week, I made the mistake of believing in Shakir. After all, he is the Bills' clear WR1 and was in a dream matchup with the Steelers' secondary. What's not to like?
Well, what's not to like is that Shakir is a fake WR1. He saw just four targets against Pittsburgh, catching only one for five yards, on a 52% route participation rate. And this shouldn't even have been too surprising, as it was his fourth time this season scoring fewer than five half-PPR points. He may be the Bills' WR by default, but his average usage — a 21% target share and 11% air yards share on a 71% route participation rate — is not that of a legit WR1.
This week, Shakir gets another excellent matchup with the Bengals' defense. But if Cincinnati has one strength defensively, it's guarding WRs, to whom they actually allow the fourth-fewest points per game. He's capable of having a big game, but he's also capable of a complete dud.
Just like Addison, that means I'd rather bench him if possible for Week 14.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
In his return from injury last Sunday, Thomas picked up right where he left off … and that wasn't a good thing. The sophomore WR ranked second on Jacksonville's offense with a 78% route participation rate, but he only saw three targets, catching two for just 28 yards.
Thomas has now played over 50% of the Jaguars' offensive snaps in nine games this season. He has averaged just 8.3 half-PPR points per game, with only one finish inside the top-30 weekly receivers.
With how well Jakobi Meyers has played since arriving at the trade deadline, I don't think we can expect Thomas to ramp back up to being the WR1 in this offense. That means we are looking at PFF's WR90 out of 104 qualified players, who is the second target for Trevor Lawrence, facing a Colts defense that is trending up.
Take away his name, and that player sounds like a must-bench. Even with his name, BTJ isn't someone I want to start this week.